FALCONS VS. VIKINGS – KIRK’S REVENGE

 

     This Sunday afternoon Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins will return to U.S Bank Stadium for the first time since parting ways with Minnesota.  In the offseason, Cousins signed a 4-year, $180 million deal, which includes a $50 million signing bonus, $100 million guarantees, and holds an average of $45 million per base salary.  Kirk was initially ecstatic that Atlanta viewed him as a starting QB looking to lead their offense and team for the next four years.  The Vikings were seemingly ready to move on to either a younger veteran or draft a rookie for the future.  The QB still wanted to be a starter so he knew if he stayed there could be a possibility that during the season they may wind up turning to another option as their starter, so he just wanted out of that situation.  Upon a possible deal with Atlanta, it was then reported that Cousins spoke about this type of situation that could’ve taken place if he had stayed in Minnesota and wanted assurance that if the two sides were to reach a deal in Atlanta, he would have peace of mind that this wouldn’t happen to him as a Falcon.  He was told that they wanted him as their starter, thus not having to worry about something like that in the peach state of Georgia. 

Then about a month and a half after they reached an agreement on a contract, much to Kirk’s chagrin the Atlanta Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr., ex-Washington Huskies quarterback who had brought the Huskies to the National Championship last year.  Atlanta has mostly been a rollercoaster of a team this year.  They started this season 6-3, but over the past three weeks have gone 0-3.  Fortunately, they have handled their business inside the NFC South with a 4-1 division record.  They also only have two tough games ahead this Sunday against the 10-2 Vikings then another road matchup with the 8-5 Commanders in week 17.  Cousins will look to upset the Vikings on the road as payback moving forward without him after his six proficient seasons in Minneapolis.  During his tenure as their starter, he earned three Pro Bowl trips, passing for 171 touchdowns and 55 interceptions (averaged 28.5-9 TD: INT in 6 seasons).  However, Kirk’s been relatively inefficient as of late, having not thrown a single touchdown in his previous three outings. (last game with a TD in week 10 against Dallas, went 3-0 in TD: INT)

Minnesota has played fundamentally sound football on offense and defense all season long.  The Vikings currently sit in second place in the NFC North, trailing Detroit by only one game while possessing a stronghold on the top Wild Card spot in the NFC playoff picture.  Moving on from Cousins has proven to be a decent decision after all for Kevin O’Connell as their new starter Sam Darnold has thrown for 2,952 yards (10^th) this season, passing for 23 touchdowns (5^th) with 10 interceptions (T-25^th).  Offensively, the Vikings are ranked 9^th best in passing (231.6 ypg) and points (24.8 ppg).  They are 13^th in the league in total yardage (344.6 ypg) while not as great on the ground, averaging 113.0 yards per game (17^th).  Though no team can ever afford to lose a game, this is not to the same degree of importance for Minnesota as it is for the Falcons.  They are locked into a playoff position with 5 games left on the schedule, but they still must play Detroit once more and have the chance of possibly winning their division.  Three of their next five are against NFC rivals plus a game in Seattle which are fighting to keep their playoff dreams alive, they by no means have an easy street en route towards becoming hopeful NFC North Champions.

Falcons’ OC Zac Robinson will look to dial up plenty of passing situations to beat the Vikings 28^th ranked pass defense.  However, Vikings’ DC Brian Flores likes to bring more pressure than most teams and they are 4^th in sacks this season.  Atlanta’s DC Jimmy Lakes has had a mediocre defense at best.  They are ranked dead last in the league in sacks and will try to contain what Wes Phillips (OC) and Minnesota do best which is throw the ball.  The Vikings only have the Division Championship to fight for at this point, having already basically clinched a playoff berth.  The Falcons on the other hand have zero margin of error.  As I have already mentioned, Atlanta has two difficult matchups remaining, while their top divisional foes Tampa Bay have a much easier road ahead playing four teams that have a total of 14 wins between them.  It will be quite a problematic situation for Atlanta the rest of the way if they don’t come out of this one with a win.     

MY TOP DPOY NOMINEES

 

This list is in my opinion who should be considered for the Defensive Player of the Year Award.  I have chosen six players for this award.  While using each player's statistics along with some Next Gen Stats I will plead a case for each one of these individual players to win the DPOY award.  Remember these picks are my opinions, while there may be a few that are also favorites by the NFL, there are also a couple of players I believe deserve recognition for their significant exertion all season long.

 

6) NIK BONITTO- DENVER BRONCOS

        Now let me be 100% clean and clear in telling you all that if you don’t know I am a Broncos fan, and I have been my entire life; however, this is in no way a biased pick.  Let me add context before you think I am crazy or partial by putting Bonitto in my top six picks.  Nik Bonitto is now in his third season, drafted out of Oklahoma as the 64^th pick in the second round of the 2022 NFL draft.  Upon adding Bonitto plus some other edge rushers, the Broncos decided to move on from the likes of Bradley Chubb & Von Miller.  In his first two seasons, he certainly showed some flashes that he may end up being a special player, but now in year three, it is suddenly coming to fruition.  Through 13 games this season Bonitto has recorded 25 SOLO, 11 AST, 36 TOT, 11 SACKS, 13 TFL, 3 PD, 1 FF, 1 INT & 1 TD.  This past Monday Night in a home game against the Cleveland Browns Bonitto managed to record a sack, an interception, a tackle, 2 PD, and a TD.  The third-year pro is making franchise history for the Broncos, becoming only the second player in their building to account for 10 or more sacks with an interception for a TD, which ties ex-Bronco Von Miller.  Nik also tied Millers' record for six straight games with a sack. Though in all honesty, he should be tied for another NFL record for consecutive games with a sack.  Let me elaborate further, in week 9 against the Baltimore Ravens, Bonitto had a sack on Lamar Jackson though in a weird twist, they decided that this 8-yard loss from the shotgun formation would be recorded as a tackle for loss instead of a sack.  Had they accredited Bonitto with the sack he would have been tied for the all-time NFL record, 11 consecutive games with a sack (Chris Jones- KC DL holds the record).  His numbers aren’t too far off from players like T.J. Watt or even Myles Garrett, with more sacks than either of those two and currently only a half-sack behind the league leader.  However, it is hard to envision that a non-household name like Nik Bonitto would accumulate more votes than those guys.

 

5) ZAIRE FRANKLIN- INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

        Colts linebacker Zaire Franklin is often another player who gets overshadowed.  There are tons of talented players across the NFL, but not tons of consistently productive players, at least not at the level of Indy’s beastly tackling machine.  Franklin has already accrued 135 combined tackles this season, 10 more than the next player who ironically enough is also a Colt, Safety Nick Cross.  Franklin’s tackles are also 14 more than any non-Colt player, which shows how good this man is at bringing down the opposing team's playmakers.  This season he is on pace to beat his tackling record that he continues breaking; Zaire ended the 2022 season with 166 total tackles and broke that when he recorded 179 last year.  He owns the Indianapolis Colt’s all-time single-season tackling record since breaking Shaquille Leonard’s in 2022.  Zaire’s numbers for this year stand at 74 SOLO, 61 AST, 135 TOT, 2.5 SACKS, 4 TFL, 4 PD, 1 INT, 3 FF.  This past weekend he had yet another big outing in accounting for his 7^th double-digit tackling performance with 12 tackles, 10 of which were solo, 1.5 sacks, plus a forced fumble.  I believe much like Nik Bonitto, that Zaire Franklin will also probably be overlooked in the DPOY race, but I am happy at the very least to be able to bring his incredible play to light for others to see.    

         

4) ANDREW VAN GINKEL- MINNESOTA VIKINGS

        The Vikings have a dog in Van Ginkel plain and simple.  Vikings’ DC Brain Flores knows he’s got one of the best and most versatile defensive players leaguewide.  Most may not know this, but Van Ginkel had begun playing football as a quarterback in high school, along with snaps as a wideout, plus on defense as both a safety and the position he continues to play today, linebacker.  Van Ginkel made history earlier this season, becoming just the third player in the NFL to have 8 or more sacks with multiple pick-sixes in a season (Terrell Suggs in 08, Jason Taylor in 06).  He is only the 10^th player in Vikings franchise history with two pick-sixes in a season while being the first to do so since 2012 when their safety Harrison Smith had a pick-six.  After week 13 wrapped up Van Ginkel now has the third most solo tackles, combined tackles, and QB hits in his career in a single season and he is on pace to have the best statistical year of his career.  Minnesota has five games remaining for him to tack on more production to his 41 SOLO, 18 AST, 59 TOT, 9 SACKS, 15 TFL, 4 PD, 2 INT, 2 TD, 1 FF.  The linebacker also completed something unique this year by having his two interceptions for touchdowns come against both New York teams.

3) PATRICK SURTAIN II- DENVER BRONCOS

        I believe it is vividly clear that Pat Surtain is the best cornerback in the league—at least he has been this year.  Surtain is already being compared to some of the greatest cornerbacks the Denver Broncos history has ever seen, like Champ Bailey, Chris Harris Jr., Aqib Talib, and Dre Bly.  Denver selected Pat aka PS2 in the first round of the 2021 draft out of Alabama.  The Broncos solidified their stance on PS2 in the offseason when they made him the highest-paid corner in the league, opting to sign him to a four-year $96 million extension that guarantees him at least $77.5 million (most guaranteed money for a cornerback in NFL history).  Now unlike linebackers, edge rushers, defensive linemen, and the safety position, corners don’t usually rack up huge numbers.  They generally won’t produce the most tackles or sacks, sometimes they may not even have a lot of interceptions, but that’s okay.  The reason is that true number one corners, like Surtain get judged from the production they allow from the men lining up adjacent to them. 

When you put a top receiving threat out against your top defensive back, leave him out on an island with the knowledge that he won’t give up a massive yardage outing or scoring, that’s when you know you got something truly special.  This is exactly what the Broncos know to be true each week since they brought PS2 to Denver.  Surtain has allowed just 202 total yards (the fewest of any CB), the lowest passer rating when targeted (47.6), lowest EPA/target (minus-0.68) among all corners leaguewide on at least 250 coverage snaps.  Pat has shadowed wideouts D.K. Metcalf, Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Garrett Wilson, DeAndre Hopkins, plus Raider’s rookie tight end Brock Bowers this season.  According to Next Gen Stats, he has allowed 15 receptions for 148 yards on 198 routes run against him by opponents' top wideouts.  Surtain also has 128 yards on three interceptions this year with 1 touchdown, two of the three picks came on press coverage plays (only CB with multiple INTs in press).  Through 13 weeks of the season, PS2 holds the third-best odds for DPOY (+1700).

 

2) XAVIER MCKINNEY- GREEN BAY PACKERS

        If you somehow happen to be a New York Giants fan you may want to skip this one.  Then again if you are a Giants fan you already know McKinney’s been balling out, I mean why would you continue to watch New York continue to fall apart like they’ve been doing all year?  McKinney moved on to greener pastures when the Giants chose to move on without his services, yet another questionable move by a team residing in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  The Packers' safety has mostly been pacing the NFL in interceptions since the first game of the year, now he’s tied for the league lead with Detroit Lions Safety Kirby Joseph.  McKinney is a big part of why the Packers' defense is a top-five team in takeaways through week 13.  Xavier has recorded 42 SOLOS, 21 ASSISTS, 63 COMBINED TACKLES, 7 INT for 111 YARDS, 2 TACKLES FOR LOSS, 1 SACK, 9 PASSES DEFENDED.  McKinney is having his best season as a pro while the Green Bay defensive back is now one of the top five favorites to bring home the DPOY honors with +1600 odds.

 

1)T.J. WATT- PITTSBURGH STEELERS

        Already a four-time finalist for the DPOY award (2019-2021, 2023), T.J. Watt is no stranger to hearing his name compared to some of the very best defensive players in the business.  J.J. Watt, T.J.’s older brother, who had won the award three times in his career believes that T.J. has been previously snubbed at least once.   However, T.J. did bring home this prestigious trophy when he tied long-time New York Giants Michael Strahan’s all-time sack record (22.5) in 2021.  T.J. isn’t just one of the anchors on this Pittsburgh Steelers defense but is also the heart and soul of their team!  Watt constantly displays the work ethic, attitude, and presence of a professional.  He helps his team rise to the next level on Sundays with his gameplay, study habits, and overall football knowledge.  Watt leads all NFL players this season in forced fumbles, while collectively pacing the league in that category over the last two seasons.   This season T.J. has 31 SOLO, 12 AST, 43 TOT, 9.5 SK, 16 TFL, 3 PD, 5 FF.  He is currently being favored to win this award with -220 odds.  How he acts, plays, helps teammates, and holds himself accountable is a testament that constitutes how professional athletes should be in the sports world.