NFC CHAMPIONSHIP- WASHINGTON @ PHILLY- DIVISIONAL SHOWDOWN

 

           Who would’ve ever thought that any sports franchise could recreate their entire organization from top to bottom in one offseason and end up one of four teams remaining come the season’s end?  Historically, the Washington Commanders have pulled off the improbable, making what was seemingly impossible, possible!  The Commanders have been the laughingstock of the National Football League plenty of times while under the previous ownership of Dan Snyder.  At this exact time just a year ago the Commanders owned the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.  Then a star was born, rookie Jayden Daniels has had the most impressive rookie season of any QB in NFL history.  The Philadelphia Eagles are no strangers to the NFC Championship as they’ve been here plenty of times in franchise history.  Philly has played in eight Conference Championship games all time, winning 50% of those games, with the last win coming from their current regime under Nick Sirianni.  Statmuse.com shows that in the Eagles Championship wins they have only allowed ten or fewer points, though when they’ve ceded at least fourteen or more points to the opposing offense they have lost those games.

            Normally a Conference Championship isn’t a game played with two opponents in the same division.  It is quite a rarity and will be the first time since 1986, overall, it will be just the 20^th time in NFL history that it has happened.  This deeply rooted rivalry goes way back before Washington’s team even played in Washington. To further elaborate, the football team that now plays its home games in Washington originally started in Boston as the Boston Braves in 1932.  It wasn’t until 1937 that the organization changed hands to become the Washington Redskins, then of course changing the name of the team twice more in the past decade or so.  Washington owns the series record 90-85-5 over Philly, having faced each other only once in the postseason.  When they did meet in the playoffs it was in the Wild Card round, on January 5^th, 1991, with the win going to the Redskins 20-6.  During this long historic feud, Washington had come out on top 45 times in Philly (twice as the Boston Braves) while ending in a tie twice when playing in Philadelphia.  Their only bout in the postseason is included in their 45 wins in The City of Brotherly Love.

            With four teams remaining, they all have unique claims to their cultured past of how their franchise potentially winning the Lombardi would create such a huge meaningful story.  Buffalos would be about how they have not made it to the big game since the early 1990s, to the Chiefs potentially becoming the only team to hoist the trophy three straight years.  Though, the most impressive would certainly be the story of the Washington Commanders.  I mean it is very compelling, groundbreaking, and so unbelievable because we’ve never seen this before in any professional sport!  A rookie quarterback, a first-year owner, a new general manager and to top it all off the first year of the Dan Quinn era.  It would be so appealing that it would probably pique the interest of non-football fans, and even non-sports fans would find it interesting.  The ultimate underdog story would garner so much interest that I am confident they could make millions at the box office about such a feat.  The Eagles story would be headlined by a franchise that won their second Super Bowl after bringing in a running back in the offseason who almost made NFL history in erasing an all-time great player's single-season rushing record.  It’s still intriguing but more so for Saquon Barkley overcoming a terrible team's lackluster personnel and the General Manager's awful decisions to start an incredible career that led him into the arms of his previous team's nemesis.

            This series has had many long winning streaks between these teams, the Birds have experienced the longest losing streak of 11 straight from 1937-1942, though they have also had two 8-game win streaks from 1947-1950 and then again from 1992-1996.  With five games ending in ties, the Eagles had also been through an incredibly rough patch when they played Washington 15 consecutive times without a single win from 1967-1974 (3 tied games along with 12 losses before a win).  If you don’t believe me, go ahead and check for yourself!  Now I understand these stats have no bearing on the game coming up on Sunday afternoon plus the Eagles did already beat the Commanders (26-18) at home in week 11 while also posting a 9-1 record when playing on Lincoln Financial Field this season.  The Eagles have also taken down Washington football teams 44 times in totality when playing in their home stadium.  They also have a few things in their favor regardless of the availability of both tight end Dallas Goedert and center Cam Jurgens come Sunday.  They possess the number one scoring defense, a top-ten run defense, and the best pass defense in the league.  They also have a beast on their defensive line that you can argue a case for being one of the best DTs in the league this season, well at least in the postseason anyway.  Jalen Carter was a major disrupter in the game against the Rams last week and if they are going to beat Washington’s high-powered offense Carter and the rest of the linemen will have to make Jayden Daniels very uncomfortable in the pocket this week to get him off his game.  

            Offensively, Kellen Moore needs to stick to the same game plan that has had the Birds soaring high all year, running the rock and getting the ball into the hands of Barkley in as many creative ways as possible.  Quinn’s defense has come a long way from week one until now, they have the 16th-ranked defense in total yards allowed and the 18th-ranked scoring defense.  It may not sound great, but those rankings are based on the averages throughout the season.  However, don’t be fooled by these rankings and think you can just beat the Commanders by passing the ball as they are a top-five pass defense and have been the best part of Joe Whitt Jr.’s unit.  This is why beating the Commanders will be pivotal for Barkley to be the key to Philly’s success.  The other part of this is for the Eagles' defense to make sure they don’t allow the Commanders to win the time of possession battle and get out to a double-digit lead, which could become deadly for their chances to win since they have the second worst passing defense in the league this year.  Jalen Hurts has thrown 225 or more yards in just six games this season while Daniels has had ten games of such while also rushing for 80 or more yards in four games. (Hurts had 1 game with 80 plus rushing yards).

            In conclusion, while this will be the 20^th time two divisional adversaries compete in the Conference Championship game, the home team has the edge 14-5 in the last 19 games.  It is also worth noting that Washington holds a 5-1 record in NFC Championships all-time, 2-1 when facing an NFC East opponent (beat Dallas twice in 1972 & 1983, lost to New York in 1987), with their only loss coming on the road.  Philly has a 4-2 record when playing these games at home and has won their only division matchup in this round of the postseason (beat Dallas in 1981).  Leading up to the game on Sunday at 3 PM, the Commanders are a +6.5 underdogs on the road for the third consecutive week as the NFC’s six-seeded team.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP – ALLEN VS. MAHOMES PT. IV

                This is hardly unfamiliar territory for these two teams. This matchup, which every NFL fan has either dreamt of or dreaded, will become the deciding game for one franchise's chance to play at the pinnacle of the sport.  These Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes playoff games are now becoming a regularity many fans may look forward to, bringing a classic Brady vs. Manning-esque back to the NFL.  This game will be the fourth time in five years that these two star quarterbacks will face off in the postseason.  Although this has happened almost routinely, this will only be the second time they’ve squared off in the AFC Championship.  The first time they played each other in the Conference Round of the Playoffs the outcome was much like most of the games when these two goliaths clash.  A great deal of offense accompanied by plenty of points.

               Patrick Mahomes is already widely known as a G.O.A.T., yet he is only in his eighth season as a pro.  We are only two years removed from Tom Brady’s illustrious and rare career, though it seems that the face of the NFL isn’t even close to suffering from its loss.  What Mahomes has been able to do in just seven seasons as the Kansas City Chiefs starter is unlike anything we’ve ever seen in all sports history.  This Sunday evening the Chiefs QB will start in his seventh AFC Championship tying Joe Montana for the second most starts of any quarterback in a Championship game.  This is especially impressive as it took Montana fifteen or fourteen and a half seasons (Montana didn’t become the Niners starter until halfway through his second season) to achieve what Mahomes has already done in half the amount of time.  Even Tom Brady who played in fourteen (most all-time) Conference Championship games didn’t reach such a feat until his twelfth year into his career.  Calling the Kansas City Chiefs a dynasty is only fair as the past few NFL seasons concluded with Andy Reid’s team not just winning two consecutively but also representing the American Football Conference in the last five out of six Super Bowls.

                Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was not supposed to be here.  In many people's eyes, Allen would never become an elite QB1.  He knew deep down that he’d always be a professional athlete, but early on Allen played multiple sports.  The quarterback was also his high school's leading scorer on the basketball team plus a pitcher for the baseball team and could throw 90 mph fastballs.  It was Allens' determination that got him every step of the way.  His story as a football player didn’t start until his cousin's husband (a football assistant coach for Reedley College in 2014) assumably helped him get a chance as the school's starting quarterback.  Within his first season at Reedley Allen proved to be a more than competent starter plus he had grown two inches in height while also gaining thirty pounds.  After a great year, he figured his gameplay would gain some noise enabling cumulative offers from FBS colleges, but to no avail.

                Then after multiple failed attempts at his goal of getting into a Division I program, Josh wound up on Wyoming's radar garnering himself a scholarship there.  He ended up starting two seasons at Wyoming in three years then declared for the NFL draft upon the completion of the 2017 season.  Though Josh was drafted by the Buffalo Bills and was believed to be their eventual starting QB, a lot of criticism came with the start of his career in Orchard Park, New York.  The star passer was seemingly more of just a runner of the ball, frequently turning the ball over by throwing 21 Interceptions to just 30 touchdowns over his first two years in Buffalo.  However, the California native changed that exact narrative proving to the entire world that he is an elite passer just as much as a winning quarterback, taking Buffalo to back-to-back playoff appearances in his first three seasons as a pro.  Much like Mahomes, Allen has become a recurring theme in the postseason, making it there every year since his second season.  He holds a current playoff record of 7-5 and has propelled the Bills to at least the Divisional Round five straight years. 

            This Mahomes-Allen storied rivalry stretches back to October 19th of the 2020 season, the sole time Kansas City had beaten Buffalo in the regular season during the Mahomes era.  Mahomes may have an undefeated playoff record against the Bills with Josh Allen under center (Mahomes 3-0 vs. Allen), but the roles have been reversed when they play one another from September to early January (Allen 4-1 vs. Mahomes).  This may not seem like a popular thing to say because of how their playoff matchups have heavily favored the Chiefs, peculiarly with one team attempting a first-ever three-peat title defense, though with a total of eight meetings between this exact rivalry, this game is going to be the tiebreaker.  In an ironic twist, perhaps we should dive back into the NFL history books to look at the 1990-1993 playoffs.  These were the years that the Buffalo Bills went to four straight Super Bowls, losing all four.  Why bring this up?   To optimistically predict that this, being the fourth time, the Bills and Chiefs superstar quarterbacks playing each other could potentially reverse Bills Mafia's fortunes from their historic four-year letdown.  Will the fourth time be the charm and end Buffalo’s curse of their quad deficiencies?

            Sunday's game should be more of an evenly matched battle than you may think.  The offensive struggles for KC could fare well for Buffalo if Joe Brady’s offense gets off to a great start, while the Bills defense has also had their difficulties this season.  However, Bobby Babich (Buffalo’s DC) has had some starters return to the lineup which has certainly helped them in the past couple of weeks regain cohesiveness in their unit.  Steve Spagnuolo is also coaching a good defense as well.  The Chiefs have had one of the strongest defenses in all of football this year and will be ready for the task ahead plus they have become accustomed to playing Josh Allen over the last four seasons.  The best way for Buffalo to dissect the Spagnuolo-coached unit would be for Allen to utilize his tight ends early and often.  Matt Nagy should be pushing Mahomes to try to roll out of the pocket and force the ball to the outside weapons with a full complement of healthy receivers at his disposal now that Juju Smith-Schuster and Hollywood Brown are back in the lineup.  Another reason they should probably consider bootlegs and rollout packages is to cater to the inadequacies of his offensive tackles.  This could be a massive development for their offense in addition to the emergence of the rookie wideout Xavier Worthy alongside the obvious superstars in Kelce and Hopkins.  Bills will walk into Arrowhead Stadium as +1.5 underdogs on Sunday at 6:30 PM.