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1/25/25

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP- WASHINGTON @ PHILLY- DIVISIONAL SHOWDOWN

 

           Who would’ve ever thought that any sports franchise could recreate their entire organization from top to bottom in one offseason and end up one of four teams remaining come the season’s end?  Historically, the Washington Commanders have pulled off the improbable, making what was seemingly impossible, possible!  The Commanders have been the laughingstock of the National Football League plenty of times while under the previous ownership of Dan Snyder.  At this exact time just a year ago the Commanders owned the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.  Then a star was born, rookie Jayden Daniels has had the most impressive rookie season of any QB in NFL history.  The Philadelphia Eagles are no strangers to the NFC Championship as they’ve been here plenty of times in franchise history.  Philly has played in eight Conference Championship games all time, winning 50% of those games, with the last win coming from their current regime under Nick Sirianni.  Statmuse.com shows that in the Eagles Championship wins they have only allowed ten or fewer points, though when they’ve ceded at least fourteen or more points to the opposing offense they have lost those games.

            Normally a Conference Championship isn’t a game played with two opponents in the same division.  It is quite a rarity and will be the first time since 1986, overall, it will be just the 20th time in NFL history that it has happened.  This deeply rooted rivalry goes way back before Washington’s team even played in Washington. To further elaborate, the football team that now plays its home games in Washington originally started in Boston as the Boston Braves in 1932.  It wasn’t until 1937 that the organization changed hands to become the Washington Redskins, then of course changing the name of the team twice more in the past decade or so.  Washington owns the series record 90-85-5 over Philly, having faced each other only once in the postseason.  When they did meet in the playoffs it was in the Wild Card round, on January 5th, 1991, with the win going to the Redskins 20-6.  During this long historic feud, Washington had come out on top 45 times in Philly (twice as the Boston Braves) while ending in a tie twice when playing in Philadelphia.  Their only bout in the postseason is included in their 45 wins in The City of Brotherly Love.

            With four teams remaining, they all have unique claims to their cultured past of how their franchise potentially winning the Lombardi would create such a huge meaningful story.  Buffalos would be about how they have not made it to the big game since the early 1990s, to the Chiefs potentially becoming the only team to hoist the trophy three straight years.  Though, the most impressive would certainly be the story of the Washington Commanders.  I mean it is very compelling, groundbreaking, and so unbelievable because we’ve never seen this before in any professional sport!  A rookie quarterback, a first-year owner, a new general manager and to top it all off the first year of the Dan Quinn era.  It would be so appealing that it would probably pique the interest of non-football fans, and even non-sports fans would find it interesting.  The ultimate underdog story would garner so much interest that I am confident they could make millions at the box office about such a feat.  The Eagles story would be headlined by a franchise that won their second Super Bowl after bringing in a running back in the offseason who almost made NFL history in erasing an all-time great player's single-season rushing record.  It’s still intriguing but more so for Saquon Barkley overcoming a terrible team's lackluster personnel and the General Manager's awful decisions to start an incredible career that led him into the arms of his previous team's nemesis.

            This series has had many long winning streaks between these teams, the Birds have experienced the longest losing streak of 11 straight from 1937-1942, though they have also had two 8-game win streaks from 1947-1950 and then again from 1992-1996.  With five games ending in ties, the Eagles had also been through an incredibly rough patch when they played Washington 15 consecutive times without a single win from 1967-1974 (3 tied games along with 12 losses before a win).  If you don’t believe me, go ahead and check for yourself!  Now I understand these stats have no bearing on the game coming up on Sunday afternoon plus the Eagles did already beat the Commanders (26-18) at home in week 11 while also posting a 9-1 record when playing on Lincoln Financial Field this season.  The Eagles have also taken down Washington football teams 44 times in totality when playing in their home stadium.  They also have a few things in their favor regardless of the availability of both tight end Dallas Goedert and center Cam Jurgens come Sunday.  They possess the number one scoring defense, a top-ten run defense, and the best pass defense in the league.  They also have a beast on their defensive line that you can argue a case for being one of the best DTs in the league this season, well at least in the postseason anyway.  Jalen Carter was a major disrupter in the game against the Rams last week and if they are going to beat Washington’s high-powered offense Carter and the rest of the linemen will have to make Jayden Daniels very uncomfortable in the pocket this week to get him off his game.  

            Offensively, Kellen Moore needs to stick to the same game plan that has had the Birds soaring high all year, running the rock and getting the ball into the hands of Barkley in as many creative ways as possible.  Quinn’s defense has come a long way from week one until now, they have the 16th-ranked defense in total yards allowed and the 18th-ranked scoring defense.  It may not sound great, but those rankings are based on the averages throughout the season.  However, don’t be fooled by these rankings and think you can just beat the Commanders by passing the ball as they are a top-five pass defense and have been the best part of Joe Whitt Jr.’s unit.  This is why beating the Commanders will be pivotal for Barkley to be the key to Philly’s success.  The other part of this is for the Eagles' defense to make sure they don’t allow the Commanders to win the time of possession battle and get out to a double-digit lead, which could become deadly for their chances to win since they have the second worst passing defense in the league this year.  Jalen Hurts has thrown 225 or more yards in just six games this season while Daniels has had ten games of such while also rushing for 80 or more yards in four games. (Hurts had 1 game with 80 plus rushing yards).

            In conclusion, while this will be the 20th time two divisional adversaries compete in the Conference Championship game, the home team has the edge 14-5 in the last 19 games.  It is also worth noting that Washington holds a 5-1 record in NFC Championships all-time, 2-1 when facing an NFC East opponent (beat Dallas twice in 1972 & 1983, lost to New York in 1987), with their only loss coming on the road.  Philly has a 4-2 record when playing these games at home and has won their only division matchup in this round of the postseason (beat Dallas in 1981).  Leading up to the game on Sunday at 3 PM, the Commanders are a +6.5 underdogs on the road for the third consecutive week as the NFC’s six-seeded team.

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