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12/28/24

NFC NORTH STARS

 

        The Green Bay Packers accomplished something last Monday night that no other team has been able to pull off this year.  For the first time this season, a team was shut out.  It isn’t particularly surprising, the Packers have a good defense plus the New Orleans were missing their QB, running back, both of their starting receivers, their swiss army knife (Taysom Hill) plus a handful of other starters.  It was the first time the Saints had been shut out in over two decades.  Minnesota was also victorious last week in a game with a hungry Seattle Seahawks group.  The Vikings were in charge for most of that game, but Seattle did make it interesting late in the fourth quarter when their offense started to come to life.  Geno marched his guys down the field on an 11-play drive, taking up over six minutes of the clock in the process.  Sixty-eight yards later Smith threw a touchdown that would put them up by four points, leaving only four minutes and twenty-one seconds remaining.  On the ensuing drive, Sam Darnold showed us once again how potent this Vikings offense can be as it only took thirty seconds on four plays to go 70 yards for another score. (Vikings B. Murphy was penalized on a face mask hold for 15 yards).  Seattle got the ball once more, and tried a 60-yard field goal, but ultimately missed.

 

        Jordan Love has propelled the Pack to 11 wins already this season.  They could potentially end the season as one of only a few teams to ever win 13 games yet not win their division.  If you think that sounds weird how about the fact that they could also wind up as the third-best team in the North?  Yeah, crazy. That’s just how darn good this NFC North group of teams have been this year.  History shows that there have never been three 13-win teams within the same division.  When the Packers met the Vikings earlier this season the Vikings got the best of the Packers, winning 31-29.  The turnovers are what played the biggest role in the end the first time around, Green Bay had four, while Minnesota had three.  Matt LaFleur could only watch as his offense went scoreless in two of the first three-quarters of the game.  Then Love almost brought them all the way back for a win as the cheese heads cheered their Packers on as they scored 22 points in the fourth quarter, but to no avail still losing by two points. 

 

PACKERS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 27.5 (7TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 377.3 (4TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 147.3 (4TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 230.1 (12TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 16 (2ND)

 

PACKERS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 19.1 (6TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 312.1 (6TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 102.5 (8TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 209.7 (9TH)

TOTAL SACKS-  43 (6TH)

 

        Minnesota hasn’t just been one of the best teams in the entire league this year but is also silently attempting to do something that no one could’ve foreseen coming.  Kevin O’Connell has had his team in a great position all season long to contend for the NFC North Championship.  With a win this week, they can do just that heading into a week 18 game against one of the league's best offenses in their number one rivals, the Detroit Lions.  Many thought that Sam Darnold couldn’t become a true franchise quarterback after his tenure with the New York Jets.  Though in hindsight if we knew then what we know now in terms of the Jets franchise and how it has been run for years we would have been a little less critical of Sam. 

        The Vikings beat the Packers in their prior meeting during their 5-game win streak.  They have only lost two games so far this season and both losses came after that win streak.  The first was against the Lions, 31-29 and the other loss was to the Rams in Los Angeles 30-20.  Since the second loss in week 8 Minnesota hasn’t lost another game, winning 8 straight games.  It is almost unthinkable with how great the Lions and Eagles have been this year that the Vikings still have a very good chance of locking up the number one seed in the NFC.  They hold their destiny in their hands.  Two more wins and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs plus the additional bye week before playing a postseason game.

 

VIKINGS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 26.4 (9TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 346.3 (12TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 111.1 (16TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 235.3 (8TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 46 (24TH)

 

VIKINGS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 18.4 (3RD)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 335.8 (16TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 87.1 (2ND)

PASS YARDS P/G- 248.7 (30TH)

TOTAL SACKS – 44 (5TH)

 

        This will be a very tough game to try and predict.  They are evenly matched on the offensive side of the ball.  Even the defenses are comparable, the one big difference I can see is against the opposing team's passing.  Green Bay allows 209 yards in passing yards (9th) while Minnesota is conceding an average of 248 yards (30th) a contest.  It makes sense that the Vikings are giving up the 30th most pass yards a game when you think about how Brian Flores's (MIN DC) defense leads the league in QB pressures on both 1st and 3rd downs.  One of the key matchups I will be looking for is Josh Jacobs vs. the Vikings 16th 16th-ranked rush defense.  The other one is rather obvious, Vikings' one-two receiving threat in Jefferson & Addison going up against Green Bay defensive backs.  Especially now that the Packers will be without their top cornerback Jaire Alexander after being ruled out with a knee injury.  I am leaning toward the -1.5-point favorites, the 13-2 Minnesota Vikings at home.   

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