LOS ANGELES @ SAN FRAN

 

        This NFC West division has been widely open all year long.  Coming into the season it was largely discussed as the Niners division for the taking.  Seattle had the best start pulling off a 3-0 record, then started to crumble.  L.A. was riddled with injuries after just two weeks into the season causing them to rack up more losses than wins through the first half of the season.  Arizona also started slowly but then seemed like the favorites to win the division as they were starting to gain momentum and separation from the rest of the West.  Then the Cards lost three straight games, two to the Seahawks.  With essentially almost every other division sewed up, only four weeks remaining, and this NFC West is the most intriguing group of teams to focus on heading into the postseason.  This sets us up for a massive Thursday Night NFL matchup between the Rams & Niners as week 15 is rapidly approaching.

 

        San Fransico has been in a bad way all season.  The fact that they still have a slight chance of winning this division is a miracle.  This past Sunday afternoon the Niners offense went off.  San Frans’ offense amassed over 450 total yards, 321 passing with 131 added yards in ground production.  They had 22 first downs against a decent Chicago defense, converting 50% of their 3^rd downs (6/12) along with 100% on 4^th downs (2/2).  The offense was seemingly the most efficient it’s been all year long.  The O-line played great only allowing Purdy to be sacked just once.  Shanahan’s offense ran 61 plays, only punting twice and Purdy was back to playing superior football again.  Brock completed 80% of his passes (20 for 25) throwing for 325 yards with 2 touchdowns.  Superstar tight end George Kittle stepped his game up while bringing in 6 receptions for 151 yards, averaging over 25 yards a clip.  Jauan Jennings also showed up in a major way with his 7 catches on 90 yards and scored 2 TDs.  Even their rookie running back got into the act when he scored twice on his 15 rushing attempts.  This was a complete win on both sides of the ball and their defense showed rookie Caleb Williams that they would not be denied on their home field, sacking Williams 7 times.

 

49ERS OFFENSE-

TOTAL YDS P/G- 378.5 (4^TH)

RUSH YDS P/G- 138.9 (7^TH)

PASS YDS P/G- 239.6 (7^TH)

POINTS P/G- 23.7 (11^TH)

TOT SKS ALLOWED- 26 (11^th)

 

DEFENSE-

TOT YDS ALLWD P/G- 298.5 (3^RD)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 115.9 (12^TH)

PASS YDS P/G- 182.6 (3^RD)

PTS ALLWD P/G- 23.7 (21^ST)

TOTAL SACKS-  35 (T-10^TH)

 

        Los Angeles has continued to put up a very strong fight after quickly sinking at the beginning of the season.  They were also going through a tremendous number of injuries to key players much like their rivals.  Sean McVay has finally gotten his team over .500 for the first time this year after a cataclysmic 1-4 start to their season.  They have been in a constant uphill battle and after winning the last two weeks they still have a shot at mid-January football.  L.A. currently has a 34% chance to make the playoffs but will drop to only 23% with a loss on Thursday Night.  If they were to come out on top their odds would then grow to 50%.  Believe it or not, they are sitting in a unique position with Washington losing a few of their last games because now the Rams are the only bubble team that can seemingly make their way into a possible Wild Card spot.  They could potentially overtake either Green Bay or Washington if they win out and if one or both of those teams were to stumble in the last four weeks.  The Rams, much like their opponents this week had recorded the best offensive game of their season on Sunday when they put 44 points on the Buffalo Bills. 

In a game that reminded us just how incredible Josh Allen is (scored 6 TDs, 3 rushing + 3 passing, accounting for 424 total yards).  Somehow the Rams not only matched the Bills' level of intensity but outdid them.  McVay’s offense had 28 first downs, converted 11 of 15 third downs (73.33%), ran 72 plays, allowed 0 sacks, and only punted two times.  They also won the time of possession battle 38:30-21:30 while not turning the ball over once.  Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford made it look effortless, completing 23 of 30 passes for 320 yards and threw a pair of touchdowns as well.  Stafford’s all-star receivers Nacua & Kupp both caught a TD each, Cooper grabbing 5 passes for 92 yards, while Puka had the bigger performance (12 rec, 162 yds).  Let’s not forget the man in the backfield, Kyren Williams who also got into the endzone twice while compiling 87 rushing yards.  

 

RAMS OFFENSE-

TOTAL YDS P/G- 340.7 (15^TH)

RUSH YDS P/G- 103.0 (25^TH)

PASS YDS P/G- 237.7 (9^TH)

POINTS P/G- 22.9 (16^TH)

TOT SKS ALLWD- 28 (13^TH)

 

DEFENSE-

TOT YDS ALLWD P/G- 365.7 (27^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 141.0 (28^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 224.7 (23^RD)

PTS ALLWD P/G- 25.5 (24^TH)

TOTAL SACKS -  28 (24^th)

 

        I think we are all in for quite a treat tomorrow night with much more than just an exhibition game between bitter foes.  Look for a high-scoring event as two of the top ten passing offenses will attempt to carve the others' defensive backs all game long.  When you take a glimpse at the numbers both teams are weaker against the run but don’t let that fool you as both squads have great QBs at the helm.  Stafford and Purdy will combine for roughly 600 passing yards while both have immensely talented outlets to distribute the rock to.  Once a part of the same staff old buddies will go mano y mano during this one, coaching on opposite sidelines (Shanahan and McVay).  Only one will come out on top, if San Fran loses, they’re pretty much out of the mix and boarder lined eliminated from playoff contention.  The Rams would technically still have a chance to make the postseason even if they were to lose, though it would certainly complicate things further.  Still, this game is perceived as a must-win for both these NFC West teams.  Los Angeles is a +3 underdog as they hit the road with Levi’s Stadium, their destination.  Rams vs. Niners tomorrow night, 8:15 PM ET only on Amazon Prime Video.        

MY TOP 5 COACH OF THE YEAR NOMINEES

             Week 15 of the NFL season is almost here and will be kicking off Thursday Night Football with an NFC West Divisional matchup between the Niners and Ram.  It's getting close to the time of the year when everyone in the NFL world, including the fans, can vote on many different awards.  The obvious biggest honor is the NFL’s regular season MVP.  There are also smaller rewards such as the Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the Year, and even the Comeback Player of the Year.  Those are the most notable trophies that are given out after the season concludes.  Many of the other less savory honors awarded will include one that solidifies the efforts of whom many feel was the best head coach of the year.  In my opinion, there have been several coaches this season for whom you can make a case that fits as a possible COTY candidate. 

 

JIM HARBAUGH, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- 8-5

            Harbaugh has turned around a franchise that hasn’t been the worst team, although they weren’t reaching their true potential either.  The Los Angeles Chargers have had one of the best young talents at the quarterback position Justin Herbert, since the 2020 season when they drafted him out of Oregon.  Sadly, they didn’t seem to have the right coaching to bring the most out of the rest of the team around Herbert.  Now with Jim Harbaugh, they have looked like a completely different team than just a year ago.  They are dominant on defense, the offense has been getting better throughout the season, and they are even poised for a playoff run.  Though Herbert and McConkey are both a little banged up and they await J.K. Dobbins to hopefully get healthy by the end of the regular season.  At 8-5, the Chargers are firmly in the playoff picture while they’re seemingly back and may even surprise some teams in the postseason.  It has only taken Harbaugh 14 weeks to take a team, which many thought was a joke, and turn them into a contender. 

 

JONATHAN GANNON, ARIZONA CARDINALS- 6-7

            Jonathan Gannon is a lesser-known head coach around the league.  If you are a Philadelphia Eagles fan you may remember him as their defensive coordinator for two seasons (2021-2022).  He has held other coaching positions, but none as highly regarded as DC until the Arizona Cardinals hired him last year to become their head coach.  Though he couldn’t turn the Cardinals' misfortunes around at the pace that Jim Harbaugh was able to do for the Chargers, what he has done in Arizona is still very impressive, nonetheless.  This year he has helped ascend their level of play on defense, while also impacting the overall environment of the locker room.  If you hear how he speaks about the ins and outs of what he preaches to the team week after week, you start to like the guy and realize he is exactly the type of presence they have been needing.  Kyler is 100% healthy and has been balling out, Budda Baker is still balling out as their defensive veteran/captain along with being their number one defender.  The Cardinals just dropped the torch as the leaders of the NFC West, losing twice to Seattle plus a loss to Minnesota in between their games with the Seahawks.  I still have faith in the Cardinals and believe they will go on another winning streak like the one they are just a few weeks removed from.   I do however still like them to wind up winning their division at 10-7 or 9-8.  They still pose a 2-2 division record as of now and have a chance with Seattle’s tough slate of games remaining.  Gannon currently has them as the 10^th-best team in the NFC with a 6-7 record.

 

SEAN PAYTON, DENVER BRONCOS- 8-5

            It hasn’t taken too long for Sean Payton’s offensive ingeniousness to kick in as the Denver Broncos head coach.  Sean wanted to get rid of Russell Wilson, so he got it.  He wanted the Broncos cap to eat over 70 million from Wilson’s deal, so he got it.  Sean wanted to draft Bo Nix, so he got that.  There was speculation that he could make this kid out of Oregon somewhat resemble his once Hall of Fame protégé, quarterback Drew Brees.  Well to his credit Bo is starting to show a glimmer of that type of play.  Payton has Nix looking like the best rookie QB, which is saying a lot when Bo was the fifth player drafted from his position.  Courtland Sutton is looking more like the Pro Bowl rookie version of himself now than he has in any of the past five seasons.  We are now going into week 15, and the Broncos seem to have a top-three, if not the best defense in the league.  Before last week's Monday night high-scoring affair, the Broncos' offense had been rolling while not committing a single turnover in their last 15 quarters played, best of all the Broncos are 8-5.  Coach Payton has this Denver team ready to break their 9-year absence from the playoffs as they are presently in 7^th place in the AFC playoff picture, having at least two fewer losses from the next closest team.

 

MIKE TOMLIN, PITTSBURGH STEELERS- 10-3

            Mike Tomlin is arguably one of the best coaches in the NFL.  I strongly believe he has been one of the best Head Coaches for a long time now.  Yes, Tomlin has only won one Super Bowl, but he has gotten to two of them as the Steelers head coach.  He has also led Pittsburgh to 11 playoff appearances, won 7 division titles, and brought them to 3 AFC championship games.  However, the most impressive thing about Mike Tomlin is that he has never had a losing season in his entire head coaching tenure.  Though a lot of those teams had one of the top quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger or posed as one of the elite defenses.  Even after a few years without “Big Ben” or with banged-up defenses that weren’t so elite, Mike Tomlin still managed to find a way to be a .500 team or better.  This season Tomlin had to coach his way through an unconventional, unique situation that he had never dealt with before.  He had to choose between a good veteran quarterback Russell Wilson or the young and upcoming, talented ex-Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields to become his starter.  To start the season Fields was placed as the Steelers starter due to Wilson getting injured a few weeks before their opening game.  Fields began the season well, though he seemed to limit their offense.  Tomlin chose to go with his gut thus replacing Fields with Wilson and it’s been sunny skies since.  The Steelers currently sit atop the AFC North division after beating the Baltimore Ravens just a few weeks ago.  I believe Tomlin more than deserves a Coach of the Year award, having them in third place in this extremely tough AFC conference at 10-3.  I also think it is crazy that he’s never won COTY honors in the past.

 

DAN QUINN, WASHINTON COMMANDERS- 8-5

            It is only Quinn’s rookie year as the Commanders' head coach, yet he’s looking like a seasoned vet.  Why is that?  Well, for one thing, he’s still in the NFC East.  He has done a spectacular job, especially with a rookie quarterback.  Though this is not your average rookie QB, he set all kinds of records for the Commanders also has set all-time rookie QB records for completion percentage, while he is also in the conversation as the favorite for Rookie of the Year.  No one would have ever thought that come week 15 we would be talking about a Washington Commanders team heading to the playoffs.  This is not the old Dan Synder-owned Washington football team, see what I did there haha.  Only a complete fool would do what he did to a sports organization and even with him trying to run them into the ground it only took one season to pull them out of the depths of despair.  That is exactly why I firmly believe that Dan Quinn should be one of the favorites for Coach of the Year.  Furthermore, he also seemed to turn the defense around from one of the middling-worst units as the season began to a respectable one that is starting to hold its own.  If Washington does make the playoffs and beats the Philadelphia Eagles in week 16, I think there should be no question that Dan should win COTY.

 

            I would just like to clarify the reason why I don’t have some of the other great coaches on my list, such as Dan Campbell, Nick Sirianni, Kevin O’Connell, Sean McDermott, and even John Harbaugh.  Unlike the head coaches I just named, the coaches in my top 5 list have either been with their teams for less time or like in Mike Tomlin's case have seemed to have less talent to work with.  Also, I believe that it is unfair to slight a great future Hall of Fame head coach like Tomlin, never having him as the COTY, yet someone like Kevin Stefanski who has won the award twice with a far less impressive track record while only being a head coach for a whopping four seasons, now in his fifth. 

FALCONS VS. VIKINGS – KIRK’S REVENGE

 

     This Sunday afternoon Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins will return to U.S Bank Stadium for the first time since parting ways with Minnesota.  In the offseason, Cousins signed a 4-year, $180 million deal, which includes a $50 million signing bonus, $100 million guarantees, and holds an average of $45 million per base salary.  Kirk was initially ecstatic that Atlanta viewed him as a starting QB looking to lead their offense and team for the next four years.  The Vikings were seemingly ready to move on to either a younger veteran or draft a rookie for the future.  The QB still wanted to be a starter so he knew if he stayed there could be a possibility that during the season they may wind up turning to another option as their starter, so he just wanted out of that situation.  Upon a possible deal with Atlanta, it was then reported that Cousins spoke about this type of situation that could’ve taken place if he had stayed in Minnesota and wanted assurance that if the two sides were to reach a deal in Atlanta, he would have peace of mind that this wouldn’t happen to him as a Falcon.  He was told that they wanted him as their starter, thus not having to worry about something like that in the peach state of Georgia. 

Then about a month and a half after they reached an agreement on a contract, much to Kirk’s chagrin the Atlanta Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr., ex-Washington Huskies quarterback who had brought the Huskies to the National Championship last year.  Atlanta has mostly been a rollercoaster of a team this year.  They started this season 6-3, but over the past three weeks have gone 0-3.  Fortunately, they have handled their business inside the NFC South with a 4-1 division record.  They also only have two tough games ahead this Sunday against the 10-2 Vikings then another road matchup with the 8-5 Commanders in week 17.  Cousins will look to upset the Vikings on the road as payback moving forward without him after his six proficient seasons in Minneapolis.  During his tenure as their starter, he earned three Pro Bowl trips, passing for 171 touchdowns and 55 interceptions (averaged 28.5-9 TD: INT in 6 seasons).  However, Kirk’s been relatively inefficient as of late, having not thrown a single touchdown in his previous three outings. (last game with a TD in week 10 against Dallas, went 3-0 in TD: INT)

Minnesota has played fundamentally sound football on offense and defense all season long.  The Vikings currently sit in second place in the NFC North, trailing Detroit by only one game while possessing a stronghold on the top Wild Card spot in the NFC playoff picture.  Moving on from Cousins has proven to be a decent decision after all for Kevin O’Connell as their new starter Sam Darnold has thrown for 2,952 yards (10^th) this season, passing for 23 touchdowns (5^th) with 10 interceptions (T-25^th).  Offensively, the Vikings are ranked 9^th best in passing (231.6 ypg) and points (24.8 ppg).  They are 13^th in the league in total yardage (344.6 ypg) while not as great on the ground, averaging 113.0 yards per game (17^th).  Though no team can ever afford to lose a game, this is not to the same degree of importance for Minnesota as it is for the Falcons.  They are locked into a playoff position with 5 games left on the schedule, but they still must play Detroit once more and have the chance of possibly winning their division.  Three of their next five are against NFC rivals plus a game in Seattle which are fighting to keep their playoff dreams alive, they by no means have an easy street en route towards becoming hopeful NFC North Champions.

Falcons’ OC Zac Robinson will look to dial up plenty of passing situations to beat the Vikings 28^th ranked pass defense.  However, Vikings’ DC Brian Flores likes to bring more pressure than most teams and they are 4^th in sacks this season.  Atlanta’s DC Jimmy Lakes has had a mediocre defense at best.  They are ranked dead last in the league in sacks and will try to contain what Wes Phillips (OC) and Minnesota do best which is throw the ball.  The Vikings only have the Division Championship to fight for at this point, having already basically clinched a playoff berth.  The Falcons on the other hand have zero margin of error.  As I have already mentioned, Atlanta has two difficult matchups remaining, while their top divisional foes Tampa Bay have a much easier road ahead playing four teams that have a total of 14 wins between them.  It will be quite a problematic situation for Atlanta the rest of the way if they don’t come out of this one with a win.     

MY TOP DPOY NOMINEES

 

This list is in my opinion who should be considered for the Defensive Player of the Year Award.  I have chosen six players for this award.  While using each player's statistics along with some Next Gen Stats I will plead a case for each one of these individual players to win the DPOY award.  Remember these picks are my opinions, while there may be a few that are also favorites by the NFL, there are also a couple of players I believe deserve recognition for their significant exertion all season long.

 

6) NIK BONITTO- DENVER BRONCOS

        Now let me be 100% clean and clear in telling you all that if you don’t know I am a Broncos fan, and I have been my entire life; however, this is in no way a biased pick.  Let me add context before you think I am crazy or partial by putting Bonitto in my top six picks.  Nik Bonitto is now in his third season, drafted out of Oklahoma as the 64^th pick in the second round of the 2022 NFL draft.  Upon adding Bonitto plus some other edge rushers, the Broncos decided to move on from the likes of Bradley Chubb & Von Miller.  In his first two seasons, he certainly showed some flashes that he may end up being a special player, but now in year three, it is suddenly coming to fruition.  Through 13 games this season Bonitto has recorded 25 SOLO, 11 AST, 36 TOT, 11 SACKS, 13 TFL, 3 PD, 1 FF, 1 INT & 1 TD.  This past Monday Night in a home game against the Cleveland Browns Bonitto managed to record a sack, an interception, a tackle, 2 PD, and a TD.  The third-year pro is making franchise history for the Broncos, becoming only the second player in their building to account for 10 or more sacks with an interception for a TD, which ties ex-Bronco Von Miller.  Nik also tied Millers' record for six straight games with a sack. Though in all honesty, he should be tied for another NFL record for consecutive games with a sack.  Let me elaborate further, in week 9 against the Baltimore Ravens, Bonitto had a sack on Lamar Jackson though in a weird twist, they decided that this 8-yard loss from the shotgun formation would be recorded as a tackle for loss instead of a sack.  Had they accredited Bonitto with the sack he would have been tied for the all-time NFL record, 11 consecutive games with a sack (Chris Jones- KC DL holds the record).  His numbers aren’t too far off from players like T.J. Watt or even Myles Garrett, with more sacks than either of those two and currently only a half-sack behind the league leader.  However, it is hard to envision that a non-household name like Nik Bonitto would accumulate more votes than those guys.

 

5) ZAIRE FRANKLIN- INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

        Colts linebacker Zaire Franklin is often another player who gets overshadowed.  There are tons of talented players across the NFL, but not tons of consistently productive players, at least not at the level of Indy’s beastly tackling machine.  Franklin has already accrued 135 combined tackles this season, 10 more than the next player who ironically enough is also a Colt, Safety Nick Cross.  Franklin’s tackles are also 14 more than any non-Colt player, which shows how good this man is at bringing down the opposing team's playmakers.  This season he is on pace to beat his tackling record that he continues breaking; Zaire ended the 2022 season with 166 total tackles and broke that when he recorded 179 last year.  He owns the Indianapolis Colt’s all-time single-season tackling record since breaking Shaquille Leonard’s in 2022.  Zaire’s numbers for this year stand at 74 SOLO, 61 AST, 135 TOT, 2.5 SACKS, 4 TFL, 4 PD, 1 INT, 3 FF.  This past weekend he had yet another big outing in accounting for his 7^th double-digit tackling performance with 12 tackles, 10 of which were solo, 1.5 sacks, plus a forced fumble.  I believe much like Nik Bonitto, that Zaire Franklin will also probably be overlooked in the DPOY race, but I am happy at the very least to be able to bring his incredible play to light for others to see.    

         

4) ANDREW VAN GINKEL- MINNESOTA VIKINGS

        The Vikings have a dog in Van Ginkel plain and simple.  Vikings’ DC Brain Flores knows he’s got one of the best and most versatile defensive players leaguewide.  Most may not know this, but Van Ginkel had begun playing football as a quarterback in high school, along with snaps as a wideout, plus on defense as both a safety and the position he continues to play today, linebacker.  Van Ginkel made history earlier this season, becoming just the third player in the NFL to have 8 or more sacks with multiple pick-sixes in a season (Terrell Suggs in 08, Jason Taylor in 06).  He is only the 10^th player in Vikings franchise history with two pick-sixes in a season while being the first to do so since 2012 when their safety Harrison Smith had a pick-six.  After week 13 wrapped up Van Ginkel now has the third most solo tackles, combined tackles, and QB hits in his career in a single season and he is on pace to have the best statistical year of his career.  Minnesota has five games remaining for him to tack on more production to his 41 SOLO, 18 AST, 59 TOT, 9 SACKS, 15 TFL, 4 PD, 2 INT, 2 TD, 1 FF.  The linebacker also completed something unique this year by having his two interceptions for touchdowns come against both New York teams.

3) PATRICK SURTAIN II- DENVER BRONCOS

        I believe it is vividly clear that Pat Surtain is the best cornerback in the league—at least he has been this year.  Surtain is already being compared to some of the greatest cornerbacks the Denver Broncos history has ever seen, like Champ Bailey, Chris Harris Jr., Aqib Talib, and Dre Bly.  Denver selected Pat aka PS2 in the first round of the 2021 draft out of Alabama.  The Broncos solidified their stance on PS2 in the offseason when they made him the highest-paid corner in the league, opting to sign him to a four-year $96 million extension that guarantees him at least $77.5 million (most guaranteed money for a cornerback in NFL history).  Now unlike linebackers, edge rushers, defensive linemen, and the safety position, corners don’t usually rack up huge numbers.  They generally won’t produce the most tackles or sacks, sometimes they may not even have a lot of interceptions, but that’s okay.  The reason is that true number one corners, like Surtain get judged from the production they allow from the men lining up adjacent to them. 

When you put a top receiving threat out against your top defensive back, leave him out on an island with the knowledge that he won’t give up a massive yardage outing or scoring, that’s when you know you got something truly special.  This is exactly what the Broncos know to be true each week since they brought PS2 to Denver.  Surtain has allowed just 202 total yards (the fewest of any CB), the lowest passer rating when targeted (47.6), lowest EPA/target (minus-0.68) among all corners leaguewide on at least 250 coverage snaps.  Pat has shadowed wideouts D.K. Metcalf, Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Garrett Wilson, DeAndre Hopkins, plus Raider’s rookie tight end Brock Bowers this season.  According to Next Gen Stats, he has allowed 15 receptions for 148 yards on 198 routes run against him by opponents' top wideouts.  Surtain also has 128 yards on three interceptions this year with 1 touchdown, two of the three picks came on press coverage plays (only CB with multiple INTs in press).  Through 13 weeks of the season, PS2 holds the third-best odds for DPOY (+1700).

 

2) XAVIER MCKINNEY- GREEN BAY PACKERS

        If you somehow happen to be a New York Giants fan you may want to skip this one.  Then again if you are a Giants fan you already know McKinney’s been balling out, I mean why would you continue to watch New York continue to fall apart like they’ve been doing all year?  McKinney moved on to greener pastures when the Giants chose to move on without his services, yet another questionable move by a team residing in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  The Packers' safety has mostly been pacing the NFL in interceptions since the first game of the year, now he’s tied for the league lead with Detroit Lions Safety Kirby Joseph.  McKinney is a big part of why the Packers' defense is a top-five team in takeaways through week 13.  Xavier has recorded 42 SOLOS, 21 ASSISTS, 63 COMBINED TACKLES, 7 INT for 111 YARDS, 2 TACKLES FOR LOSS, 1 SACK, 9 PASSES DEFENDED.  McKinney is having his best season as a pro while the Green Bay defensive back is now one of the top five favorites to bring home the DPOY honors with +1600 odds.

 

1)T.J. WATT- PITTSBURGH STEELERS

        Already a four-time finalist for the DPOY award (2019-2021, 2023), T.J. Watt is no stranger to hearing his name compared to some of the very best defensive players in the business.  J.J. Watt, T.J.’s older brother, who had won the award three times in his career believes that T.J. has been previously snubbed at least once.   However, T.J. did bring home this prestigious trophy when he tied long-time New York Giants Michael Strahan’s all-time sack record (22.5) in 2021.  T.J. isn’t just one of the anchors on this Pittsburgh Steelers defense but is also the heart and soul of their team!  Watt constantly displays the work ethic, attitude, and presence of a professional.  He helps his team rise to the next level on Sundays with his gameplay, study habits, and overall football knowledge.  Watt leads all NFL players this season in forced fumbles, while collectively pacing the league in that category over the last two seasons.   This season T.J. has 31 SOLO, 12 AST, 43 TOT, 9.5 SK, 16 TFL, 3 PD, 5 FF.  He is currently being favored to win this award with -220 odds.  How he acts, plays, helps teammates, and holds himself accountable is a testament that constitutes how professional athletes should be in the sports world.

PITTSBURGH AT CINCINNATI

        This game feels like a trap game to me.  If you look at the records, it should be an easy win for the Steelers.  However, if you know anything about this AFC North division, the underdog often upsets the better team.  Look at what happened when the Browns played Pittsburgh, sure inclement weather played a part, but a terrible Cleveland team that had won just two games upset an eight-win team.  How about when Cleveland beat the dominant Baltimore Ravens team a few weeks before that game?  Did you see that one?  Once again you can quote the NFL saying, any given Sunday.  Any team can beat any other team, regardless of the stakes.

 

STEELERS-

            Pittsburgh cannot falter at this point in the season.  They need to keep playing their brand of football, which is tough, stifling defense.  Defensive Coordinator, Teryl Austin has been with Pittsburgh since 2019 when he was first brought in as senior defensive assistant and secondary coach.  He held that position until 2022 when he was promoted to DC, and they’ve been an elite defensive unit ever since.  The Steelers have already beaten their top competitors in the North, the Ravens.  Losing last week in Primetime was already problematic enough, knowing they could have separated themselves by going up two games in front of Baltimore.  Then the Ravens won on Monday Night thus setting up another huge game between those two teams for week 16.  Pittsburgh must play hard-nosed defense and limit Cincy’s passing game with their two outstanding targets on the outside.

 

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS-

Rush yards per game- 90.3 (4^th)

Pass yards per game- 214.9 (17^th)

Total yards per game- 305.2 (7^th)

Points per game- 16.9 (3^rd)

Sacks per game- 2.3 (22^nd)

           

            Offensively, the best strategy Arthur Smith (OC) can cook up is running the ball.  Najee Harris has looked much better this year, so they need to keep feeding him the rock.  The Bengals struggle against both the run and pass but Pittsburgh has been much better at producing on the ground this season.  Russell Wilson has looked pretty good at times as well this season.  Though I think they tend to struggle a little bit when they try to focus on airing it out too much, stick to the ground game, then when you get them biting on the run and stacking the box start tossing it downfield to Pickens, Williams, Muth, Austin, and company.  They should also reincorporate Jaylon Warren by getting him more involved on passing downs.  I know Arthur Smith wasn’t there last year when Warren was more of a threat out of the backfield, but he did have a running back with similar skillsets in Bijan Robinson.  

 

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS-

Rush yards per game- 135.2 (8^th)

Pass yards per game- 192.8 (26^th)

Total yards per game- 328 (19^th)

Points per game- 22.9 (14^th)

Sacks allowed per game- 2.9 (23^rd)

 

BENGALS-

            Cincinnati has fallen and seemingly can’t get up.  They had high hopes coming into this season along with explosive talent offensively.  Nothing worked for Burrow’s Bengals this year.  Cincy had countless injuries on both sides of the ball this, including starting wideout Tee Higgins who could’ve helped mask some of their issues, seeing how they lost seven games by only one possession.  To make matters even worse four of their losses came by five or fewer points, two of which were by one point.  It has been all hard-fought losses for the Bengals while only losing by more than ten points just once this season to the Philadelphia Eagles.  Joe Burrow has had the best season of his young career and would certainly be this year's unquestioned MVP if they were a playoff team.  To play spoil against the Steelers in this home game they will need to do what they are best at and air it out.  The Bengals are the league's leading passing attack which is truly the best way to hurt the Steelers as they are weaker against the pass than the run game.  

 

OFFENSIVE RANKING-

Rush yards per game- 91.5 (27^th)

Pass yards per game- 262.7 (1^st)

Total yards per game- 354.3 (9^th)

Points per game- 27.0 (6^th)

Sacks allowed per game- 2.4 (15^th)

 

            Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s game plans haven’t come close to looking the way he had this defense playing last season.  This defense has looked more like swiss cheese opposed to the solid mozzarella form; they showed last year.  They’ve given opposing teams way too much rushing room and even more passing yards per game than the New England Patriots.  Now that’s bad.  Though, to an extent, I do understand.  I know they were banged up, plus they played some powerful offensive teams like Baltimore twice, Philly, not necessarily KC, but Mahomes.  Then there were also the surprisingly polished rookie Jayden Daniels’s Commanders, they came in and smacked their defense in the mouth.  The one that sort of shocked me was the Chargers, I know they have Justin Herbert and correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t LA score more points along with putting up more yards against Cincinnati than they had in a single game all year long?  Isn’t that a dang shame, not to pile on but the Chargers didn’t put that many yards up against the Panthers in week 2.   Lou, you need to do something here man, bring more pressure, stack the box, and try different looks.  Their best chance for success in this game will be to limit Arthur Smiths' run game, forcing them to beat you in the air while bringing more added pressure.

 

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS-

Rush yards per game- 129.8 (20^th)

Pass yards per game- 225.6 (23^rd)

Total yards per game- 355.5 (23^rd)

Points per game- 26.9 (28^th)

Sacks per game- 1.7 (30^th)

 

LAST ANALYSIS-

            In conclusion, this is very much a must-win game for both teams.  Yes, the Steelers are more or less likely to be a playoff team this year, it is to determine if they will keep their top position in the AFC North or potentially fall into a tie with Baltimore again.  They don’t want their next game with the Ravens to be what kicks them back to the 5^th, 6^th, or even 7^th spot.  Cincinnati on the other hand, would need a whole lot to happen to make a magical appearance in the postseason this NFL season.  The Bengals need to start with an upset win at home in this one, followed by literally winning every game they have left.  Furthermore, they need the Chargers to lose 4 of their next six games.  They could also get in if the Steelers or Ravens lose four of their remaining six games.  However, their easiest path would seemingly be if the Denver Broncos were to lose 3 of their last 5 games, plus the Bengals have the luxury of going head-to-head with Denver in week 17 at home.  However, if the Bengals don’t win all their upcoming games this would be all for naught.  Lastly, in case I forgot to mention the Dolphins are also tied with the Bengals, meaning they would also need Miami to end the season with a worse record than them.  Good Luck Cincy!

CROWDED NFC WEST

 

Without a doubt, this has been the tightest division, top to bottom all season long.  Through 12 weeks not a single team has yet to pull away from the pack partly because two of these NFC West squads have been riddled with injuries that have taken their top game-changing playmakers out of the equation.  I know coaches will always tell you it's the next-man-up mentality, but sometimes too many injuries will ruin your season and may change the whole trajectory of your team going forward for seasons to come.  The main two NFC West teams affected by this the most this year are the Rams and the 49ers.  Arizona was starting to look like it would be the one to leave the rest of the West in their tumbleweeds, however Seattle halted them in unique form.

 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS-

First, let’s take an in-depth look at last year’s NFC Champs, the San Francisco 49ers.  They started off the season without one of the best linebackers in the NFL, Dre Greenlaw who was injured in the Super Bowl last year and has yet to take the field this season.  Another starter lost before the year began was the Niners' starting strong safety, Talanoa Hufanga.  San Fran has possessed one of the best defenses leaguewide for the past handful of years now.  Though, when you are missing half your starting lineup it's easier for teams to exploit you, having a large weakness due to less experienced players lacking cohesiveness.  Last week the Niners were also down their top edge rusher Nick Bosa, starting cornerback Charvarius Ward, a rotational piece in their front seven in Curtis Robinson, plus their top defensive tackle Javon Hargrave.  After sustaining a partial triceps tear in week three Hargrave was placed on IR (injured reserve).  Offensively they were also without quarterback Brock Purdy this past week and lost their best pass catcher Brandon Aiyuk many weeks ago.  Then on top of all that they just recently got Christian McCaffrey back 2-3 weeks ago after having missed the first three-quarters of this season.  I know this whole division is only separated by one game, but I think the Niners are cooked and should rest up for next year.

 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS-

        Seattle surprised me this past week; I didn’t expect them to continue their win streak against the Cardinals, I doubt many thought they would.  They played their tails off on defense, holding the Cards to only six points.  The Seahawks only allowed Arizona to get into the red zone twice, allowing no points, stopping Drew Petzing’s (Cardinals OC) offense on a 4^th down attempt plus picking off Kyler late in the 4^th quarter.  It was an impressive all-around performance for Seattle, whose stock has now risen, hoisting them to the top spot in the NFC West.  By no means should they feel comfortable where they are, having a 2-2 record in divisional play, however, the two division wins just came in back-to-back weeks.  Going forward, Ryan Grubb (Seahawks OC) needs to create better game plans to give Seattle more red-zone opportunities to translate into more points.  Seattle is currently the 15^th-ranked scoring offense, averaging only 16.5 points over their last four games.  This season they have only scored over 20 points five times, and only three of those games resulted in wins.  If Seattle hopes to make the playoffs, they need to figure that out or they will be bounced out quickly.  They will have a rematch with the Cards in two weeks at Arizona plus another game with the Rams in week 18 which could determine who wins this hard-fought division.

 

LOS ANGELES RAMS-

        I wish I could speak as highly about this Sean McVay-coached team as I had been before this past Sunday Night’s game.  Though facts are facts, Los Angeles was routed in a home game that showed not only how terrible their defense is, but also in fairness to Philly, just how truly dominant their offensive line is.  The Rams allowed Barry Sanders to run all over them, whoops I mean Saquon Barkley, though he looked like the former as he rushed for 255 yards on 26 carries while averaging 9.81 ypc.  Los Angeles has had one problem after another this season and luckily for them they still have a shot at winning this division.  In the past few weeks, they seemingly got their offense back on track, they just ran into a complete buzzsaw at the hands of the Philadelphia defense.  Better days lie ahead for LA with three divisional games left on the docket plus an intriguing matchup against a lesser opponent on their horizon this week when they meet the Saints.  They only have one grueling challenge left in two weeks against Josh Allen and the Bills, so if they can win 4 of their next 6, they have a strong possibility of winning the West or possibly a wild card spot if the 6^th or 7^th seed starts to falter down the stretch.

 

ARIZONA CARDINALS-

        I have been very vocal in advocating for this Arizona team not just this season but for the past few years now.  I firmly believe in Kyer Murray, alongside James Connor and Trey McBride.  I love how this offense plays, losing one game coming off their bye will not turn me away from this team.  This offense just had a bad game, it happens, especially on the road in a rainy type of atmosphere in Seattle.  It was a fluke game, and I want to go as far as to say the Cardinals will come back strongly against Minnesota this week.  Even if they were to take a second straight loss, which I don’t believe will be the case, they will have a big opportunity to reel off three consecutive wins after this upcoming week.  The Cardinals remaining schedule has them playing at Minnesota, followed by a two-game home stand against Seattle and New England, and then at Carolina.  Their last two games will be most pertinent towards unveiling the NFC West Champions this season when they head to Los Angeles in week 17 and then end the season at home against an unraveling San Francisco team.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS THROUGH WEEK 12

 

        THESE RANKINGS ARE NOT YOUR TYPICAL TOP TEN LIST.  IT IS A BIT UNCONVENTIONAL, THOUGH STILL SHINES LIGHT ON MOST OF THE HOUSEHOLD NAMES WE ARE ALL ACCUSTOMED TO SEEING.  IT ALSO SHOWS HOW IMPRESSIVE SOME OTHER PLAYERS HAVE BEEN THUS FAR.

 

10) KHALIL SHAKIR-

        SHAKIR HAS BEEN A BIG PART OF THE BUFFALO BILLS OFFENSE ALL YEAR LONG, JOSH ALLEN’S GO-TO GUY AND FRANKLY HIS MOST RELIABLE TARGET.  SHAKIR LEADS THE NFL IN CATCH PERCENTAGE 56 OF 66 RECEPTIONS-TARGETS (84.85%).  HE IS ALSO 2^ND TO ONLY JA’MARR CHASE IN YARDS AFTER THE CATCH (460 YARDS).  WITH THE BILLS ACQUIRING AMARI COOPER IT HAS ADDED TO HIS PRODUCTION EVEN MORE SO.

 

9) GARRETT WILSON-

        WILSON HAS BEEN BALLING OUT ALL YEAR LONG FOR THE JETS.  HE WAS RODGERS' NUMBER-ONE TARGET BEFORE THEY BROUGHT IN ADAMS AND HAS REMAINED AS SUCH.  HE IS A RISING SUPERSTAR IN THE MAKING AND ONLY BENEFITS FURTHER FROM TWO FUTURE HALL OF FAMERS HELPING HIM GROW.  GARRETT HAS GARNERED THE 2^ND MOST TARGETS AT THE POSITION THIS SEASON (108), WHILE ALSO RECORDING THE 4^TH MOST RECEPTIONS (69).

8) CHRIS GODWIN-

        I KNOW, I KNOW, WHY THE HECK DO I HAVE GODWIN ON ANY ACTIVE LIST WHEN HE’S BEEN ON IR FOR WEEKS NOW?  I'LL TELL YOU WHY, THE MAN MAY BE GONE FOR THE YEAR BUT HIS STATS HAVE SURE STAYED PUT.  GODWIN’S PRODUCTION IS SOMEHOW HOLDING TOP-FIVE NUMBERS IN FOUR RECEIVING CATEGORIES.  HIS YARDS AFTER THE CATCH ARE STILL HANGING AT 5^TH (350 YARDS), YARDS PER GAME ALSO RANKS 5^TH BEST (82.3), HE’S TIED FOR 5^TH MOST IN TDS (5), PLUS HIS CATCH PERCENTAGE HASN’T BEEN SURPASSED FOR A 3^RD BEST 80.65%.  THIS IS PURELY A TRUE TESTAMENT TO WHAT GODWIN AND MAYFIELD WERE BAKING UP BEFORE HIS SEASON WAS CUT SHORT.

 

7) TERRY MCLAURIN-

        MCLAURIN CERTAINLY STARTED THIS SEASON SLOW WITH THE ROOKIE QB JAYDEN DANIELS.  AFTER THE FIRST MONTH OR SO THEY STARTED CLICKING THUS SCARY TERRY IS BACK AND SEEMINGLY BETTER THAN EVER.  MCLAURIN HAS ALREADY RECORDED 7 TOUCHDOWNS THIS SEASON (3^RD-BEST) WITH ANOTHER FIVE GAMES (WASHINGTON HAS A WEEK 14 BYE) TO GO.  HE ALSO RANKS TOP FIVE IN RECEIVING YARDS (823 YARDS- 4^TH BEST).  THE CHEMISTRY HE AND DANIELS HAVE SHOWN IN THEIR SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME HAS COMMANDER’S FANS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE TEAM'S FUTURE.

 

6) ZAY FLOWERS-

        BALTIMORE RAVENS POSSESS ONE OF THE MOST POTENT OFFENSES IN THE NFL THIS YEAR.  THOUGH THE RUN GAME HAS MOSTLY BEEN THE STORY FOR THE RAVENS WITH DERRICK HENRY, WHAT ZAY FLOWERS HAS DONE CAN NOT GO UNNOTICED.  FLOWERS IS BY FAR HAVING HIS BEST SEASON AS A PRO WHILE ON PACE FOR CLOSE TO 1200 YARDS.  ZAY IS 5^TH IN RECEIVING (789 YARDS), 3^RD IN YARDS AFTER THE CATCH (389) AND IS TIED FOR 6^TH IN TDS (4).

 

5) JUSTIN JEFFERSON-

        I BET EVERYONE IS FAMILIAR WITH THIS GUY.  IF YOU BY CHANCE ARE NOT YOU MUST NOT WATCH THE NFL OR HAVE BEEN LIVING UNDER A ROCK AS JEFFERSON HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE BEST OR AN OBVIOUS TOP-THREE WIDEOUT EVER SINCE HE CAME INTO THE LEAGUE.  I KNOW WHAT I SAID, BUT RIGHT NOW AFTER 12 WEEKS, HE IS LISTED AS 5^TH IN MY RANKINGS FOR THIS SEASON.  TEAMS HAVE GOTTEN A LITTLE BETTER AT CONTAINING HIM PLUS DARNOLD HASN’T EXACTLY HAD THE SAME KIND OF RAPPORT WITH HIM THAT COUSINS DID.  JEFFERSON PRESENTLY RANKS 2^ND IN YARDS (939), ONLY JA’MARR CHASE HAS OUTPRODUCED HIM SO FAR.  HE IS LISTED AS THE 4^TH-BEST RECEIVER IN YARDS PER GAME (85.4), TIES 5^TH IN TDS (5), AND HAS BEEN TARGETED SEVENTH MOST AT THE POSITION (92).

 

4) JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA-

        A LOT OF NFL ANALYSTS PROJECTED HE WOULD BLOWUP, WELL MUCH TO THEIR CREDENCE JAXON HAS DONE JUST THAT IN ONLY HIS SECOND YEAR AS A SEAHAWK.  IT IS ALSO VERY HELPFUL TO HAVE THE LEAGUE-LEADING QUARTERBACK IN YARDS PER GAME.  SMITH-NJIGBA IS NOT TOP 5 IN ANY GIVEN STATISTIC, THOUGH RANKS 6^TH IN YARDS AFTER CATCH (338), RECEPTIONS (66), TARGETS (93), PLUS TOUCHDOWNS (4).  JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA IS ASCENDING QUICKLY WHILE LOOKING TO EARN HIMSELF A PRO-BOWL NOD AT THE END OF THE YEAR.

 

3) AMON-RA ST. BROWN-

         I HAD PREVIOUSLY WRITTEN A FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLE, ADVOCATING FOR ST. BROWN WITH CONVICTION AFTER WHAT HE MANAGED TO DO IN HIS ROOKIE SEASON.  THIS YEAR AMON-RA HAS BEEN EMINENTLY PRODUCING AS THE TOP THREAT IN THE LIONS' PASSING ATTACK. THROUGH THE FIRST 12 WEEKS HE FINDS HIMSELF 3^RD IN RECEPTIONS (71), WHILE RANKING 2^ND IN BOTH CATCH PERCENTAGE (83.53%), PLUS RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS (9).

 

2) CEEDEE LAMB-

        THIS MAY HAVE BEEN AN UNDERACHIEVING SEASON FOR THE DALLAS COWBOYS OVERALL.  YET, AS THE COWBOYS' TOP WIDEOUT IT’S BEEN A FRUITFUL YEAR FOR LAMB.  WITH OR WITHOUT DAK HIS NUMBERS HAVEN’T DIPPED ALL THAT MUCH.  LAMB MAY ONLY HAVE 4 TDS (6^TH) SO FAR BUT HE RANKS 3^RD IN TOTAL YARDS (841), AND 4^TH IN YARDS AFTER CATCH (353).  HE IS A PASS-CATCHING CHEAT CODE AS HE CURRENTLY PACES THE LEAGUE IN TARGETS (118) & CATCHES (77).

 

1) JA’MARR CHASE-

WHAT JA’MARR CHASE IS DOING THIS YEAR HAS BEEN NOTHING SHORT OF AMAZING.  HE IS HAVING THE BEST SEASON OF HIS CAREER.  WHAT HE THOUGHT WOULD’VE BEEN THE FIRST YEAR OF A NEW DEAL, IS THE SECOND TO LAST YEAR ON HIS ROOKIE CONTRACT.  A MISUNDERSTANDING BETWEEN HIS CAMP AND THE TEAM HAD HIM HOLDING OUT THE ENTIRE OFFSEASON, BUT THE BENGALS HAD PICKED UP THE 5^TH YEAR OPTION.  THIS MEANS HE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT TWO MORE YEARS IF NOT LONGER (PENDING A POSSIBLE FRANCHISE TAG YEAR, OR TWO) NOT AN IDEAL SITUATION FOR CHASE, ESPECIALLY ON A TEAM THAT HAS BEEN LOSING WAY MORE THAN THEY’RE WINNING.  CHASE IS PRESENTLY LEADING ALL RECEIVERS IN YARDS (1,056), YARDS AFTER CATCH (481), ALONG WITH TOUCHDOWNS (12).  HIS STRONG CHEMISTRY WITH QUARTERBACK JOE BURROW SHOWS THAT THEY ARE THE BEST QB-WR DUO IN THE LEAGUE.  UNFORTUNATELY, THE BENGALS' DEFENSE HAS STRUGGLED TREMENDOUSLY THIS SEASON, WHICH IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST REASONS WHY THEY WON’T BE IN THE POSTSEASON.  THEY MAY ALSO WIND UP LOSING THEIR OTHER STARTING WIDEOUT, TEE HIGGINS AS HIS CONTRACT EXPIRES AT THE END OF THIS YEAR.  IN ANY MATTER THEY DO STILL HAVE THE BEST RECEIVER JA’MARR CHASE AND WILL SEEMINGLY HAVE HIM UNDER CONTRACT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL SEASONS.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS THROUGH STATS

 

MIAMI @ GREEN BAY – THANKSGIVING NIGHT

 

            Don’t look now but it seems like the Miami Dolphins have crept back into the playoff conversation.  Thanksgiving Day is when we tend to reminisce about all that we are thankful for, such as our families, friends, successes & riches in life.  Everyone indulges in whatever their traditional feasts may be.  These banquets usually feature turkey, maybe stuffing, mashed potatoes, mac n cheese, cranberry sauce, plus an additional magnitude of other side dishes.  This is the annual tradition for an immense population of the U.S.  Also, per tradition the NFL broadcasts two games you can always count on being able to watch.  This has been a staple of the November North American holiday since 1934 when the Detroit Lions began this folklore when they hosted the Chicago Bears. (The NFL has been playing games on Thanksgiving since they were established in 1920, though the Lions were not featured until 1934).  The Dallas Cowboys became added to this holiday's football heritage over thirty years later in 1966.  Later, in a surprising twist, the league again decided to put an additional game on the Thanksgiving Day slate (2006).  The third game, which airs in the Primetime slot, is unlike the two-afternoon fixtures, featuring two different teams every year.

 

MIAMI DOLPHINS- 

            After an execrable start to the season for the Miami Dolphins, starting 1-3 due to Tua’s fourth concussion, then they had lost two straight even after Tua’s return; thus, finding themselves all but out of the mix for postseason play holding a 2-6 record.  However, this season is far from over, and the Dolphins are not quite yet eliminated from playoff contention.  Most people are not focusing on this Miami team, whether because of how awful they looked without Tua or because most of us thought he should/would call it a career.  Either way, they are quietly on a roll, winners of their last three consecutive games which makes this Thanksgiving Day primetime game an intriguing one, thus yet another reason for NFL fans to be thankful.  Upon looking over the Dolphins' remaining list of games, I wouldn’t exactly say they have an easy path to making the playoffs, although the Ravens beating the Chargers on Monday Night paired with the Chargers' gauntlet of challenges ahead certainly ameliorates Miami’s chances of reaching the postseason.  Now I don’t want to get ahead of myself, they still must beat the Packers first.  After that, they will play host to Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, then a game at NRG Stadium for a contest against the Houston Texans.  If they can find a way to beat both the Packers and Texans, I think they can go on a minimum of a six-game winning streak while taking down the Jets in between.  In my opinion, I’m planning on the Dolphins' last three games of the season to be what determines if they will be playing football after January 5^th (week 18).

 

GREEN BAY PACKERS-

        Green Bay should feel pretty good about themselves sitting at 8-3, currently placed as the number 6 seed in the NFC playoff picture.  The Packers presently hold a 91% probability of making the postseason barring anything wild happens over their last six games this season.  Mike LaFleur’s team comes into this classic holiday finale producing the 5^th most yards per game (381.9).  Jordan Love has taken a step back this season though they are only one spot outside the top ten in passing (230.3 ypg).  This offense has been relying more on the run game this season after striking gold in the offseason with the signing of veteran running back Josh Jacobs.  Jacobs is 3^rd in rushing (944 yards) only trailing Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry putting him in great company.  That is only half the story for this team as they are also playing very well on defense.  They aren’t exactly a top-tier defensive unit but as of late, they have been coming along nicely on that side of the ball.  They rank 11^th against the pass (206.5 ypg), 12^th in run defense (112.7 ypg), while only allowing 319.3 total yards per game (11^th).  Along with the recent improvements they’ve made in terms of the yardage they’re allowing.   They have also been getting better in scoring defense, permitting a 10th-best 20.3 points a week.  Safe to say that the Packers will hold their fates for their playoff hopes.  Sure, they can move up or down in the ceding, but this team should certainly be a key team in the postseason.  After this game with the Dolphins, their last five will come against three tougher teams such as their rival teams, the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings.  They will also meet the Seahawks, which could be a bit tougher than expected after Seattle’s recent two-game win streak.  Two of their last three should be wins as they will host the Saints in week 16 plus another home game in week 18 in their last division game of the regular season against the Chicago Bears.

                       

            Lastly, as forementioned, the Dolphins' situation is still a bit of a tricky one going forward for them to get into the playoffs.  They will need to continue winning by any means possible but at the same time will need some help.  The only team that could seemingly lose enough games purely by strength of schedule, looks to be the Los Angeles Chargers.  I don’t foresee either the Baltimore Ravens or Denver Broncos falling apart down the stretch with easier games left on their schedules.  The only other team that could factor into this scenario would be the Pittsburgh Steelers still having to play four divisional opponents, plus the Eagles in week 15 along with a brutal game slated for Christmas Day against the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs.  I think the underdog (+3.5) Dolphins may come away with a victory in Green Bay to keep their playoff aspirations alive for at least one more week.

RAVENS @ CHARGERS MNF – HARBOWL II

 

Imagine that you are one of the best head coaches in the National Football League and have a brother who aspires to become an NFL head coach as well. Maybe you’ll even get to coach against him once or twice in your coaching career. This is the exact reality for the Harbaugh brothers, John and his brother Jim, who have already been on opposite sidelines twice in their NFL coaching careers. It has been a long time since this happened, mainly because of Jim Harbaugh’s firing, followed by the Niners' 8-8 record at the end of the 2014 season. The last time the Harbaughs met, millions watched as John beat his younger brother Jim in Super Bowl XLVII, or as it became widely known as the “HarBowl.” John is going into Monday Night Football holding a 2-0 record over his younger brother, but what Jim has managed to do with this Chargers team in a matter of months is possibly the most impressive coaching I’ve seen.

 

Jim Harbaugh found his way back into the NFL when the Los Angeles Chargers hired him on January 24th, fresh off his National Championship win as the University of Michigan’s head coach. Jim had coached the Michigan Wolverines for the previous nine seasons, and deep down, I believe it was his every hope to turn the Wolverines (his alma mater) around and bring them another National Championship title. Upon completing what he set out to do in Michigan, no one was too sure of what he wanted to do next. However, one thing was certain: wherever he ended up, he was going to improve them dramatically. From the middle to the end of the 2023 college football season, there was a lot of speculation that Harbaugh might end up as the next coach of the Las Vegas Raiders or Los Angeles Chargers. Jim decided to return to the state where he grew up and to one of the franchises that had once offered him an opportunity to play quarterback for the Chargers. One reason he chose the Chargers was, of course to no one's surprise, Justin Herbert, their quarterback who is arguably one of the best and possibly the most underrated passers in the NFL today. Jim and General Manager Joe Hortiz swung some family deals with his brother to obtain both Ravens’ best running backs of the past several years, Gus “the Bus” Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. Others who had made the trip over to LA are center Bradley Bozeman, tight end Hayden Hurst (a Raven from 2018-2019), and even coordinator Greg Roman (Baltimore’s OC from 2019-2022) who found new life with the Chargers after spending four seasons as part of John Harbaugh’s staff.

 

When it comes to John Harbaugh and his Baltimore Ravens, it is simple: win, and you are once again tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers, setting up a significant rematch with said team in Week 16. First, let’s get back to the task at hand, which is a huge game tonight. Monday Night Football, Brother vs. Brother, Baltimore vs. LA in a game where the number 5 spot in the AFC playoff picture is on the line. Tonight, in a primetime game with the bright lights shining on them, while millions of NFL fans are watching, Baltimore must follow the Eagles' footsteps from last night, meaning they need to focus on the task at hand and not have their minds on next week's opponents (Eagles play Ravens next week). Though the Ravens had a bad loss last week at the hands of their division rival Steelers, they can turn things around quickly tonight if they get back to what has been the main game plan this season. Todd Monken (Ravens OC) needs to dial up a heavy dose of runs for “King” Henry, who was the league’s leading rusher up until Saquon Barkley went off last night (26 CAR, 255 YDS, 2 TDS, 9.81 YPC). It is never fun for any defense to have to match up with these Ravens attempting to contain both Henry and Lamar on the ground. Lamar played his worst game of the season last week and will look to bounce back hugely tonight as they take on a Jesse Minter-coached defense (LA’s DC) ranking 10th in total yardage allowed (317.1 YPG). The Ravens are undefeated this season when Derrick Henry rushes for at least 90 yards.

 

            This Chargers defense is the real deal this season. They are currently holding opposing offenses to just 110.5 yards rushing (10th) while allowing only 206.6 yards passing (11th). They are also the number-one ranked scoring defense, ceding a league-low 14.5 points on average, making it difficult for anyone to find themselves in a position to beat them. Last Sunday night, the Bengals gave it everything they had, and although they were able to put up 27 points on this defense, the Chargers were able to seal a victory due to the bad defensive play of the Bengals. I already outlined the blueprint for the Ravens to have success against the Chargers' defense. To no one’s surprise, the best way for Los Angeles to beat the Ravens is to pose a heavy air attack (Baltimore allows 284.5 YPG) with them ranked dead last against the pass. I think there could be something to be said about the Chargers wanting to give both Dobbins and Edwards some carries, attempting to show Baltimore that they both still have a lot left in the tank; however, this would be a very bad approach as Baltimore is giving up the second-least rushing yards per game (77.5). A notable injury to watch for is Roquan Smith, who is likely out tonight.

 

            Lastly, I expect John Harbaugh to stay perfect against younger brother Jim tonight in a game that could potentially contribute towards one team sliding down in the rankings over the next couple of weeks. Going forward, the Ravens' schedule has them playing a dominant Philadelphia Eagles team before their bye week. Then a game in NJ against the Giants with new starting QB Tommy DeVito, followed by their crucial rematch at home where they play host to Pittsburgh. After that, they head to Houston for a Christmas Day matchup and then end the season at home to play the Browns. The Ravens need to keep their heads on a swivel with 5 tough games remaining, including tonight in Los Angeles. The Chargers' remaining schedule will also have some difficult challenges ahead starting this evening. Next week, LA will fly out to Atlanta to play the Falcons, who are looking for vengeance after the beatdown they took from an ascending Denver team. Then another road game is slated for the Chargers when they play their division opponent Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 14, followed by a home game against the Buccaneers. Week 16 will probably be their last difficult task in the regular season as they will host their other rivals, the Denver Broncos, just four days after their game with Tampa Bay. The NFL recently announced that they will be flexing this divisional game into the Thursday Night slot on Amazon Prime. The Chargers will play their final two games on the road, taking on the Patriots and the Raiders, and should be able to add two wins to their record to end the season. I look forward to tonight’s game. I haven’t been great with my recent picks. Hopefully, that changes this evening as I will take the Ravens, who are favored (-2.5) on the road.