NFL PLAYOFFS WILD CARD RD – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

 

            After a masterful first season as the Los Angeles Chargers head coach, Jim Harbaugh yet again finds himself back in the NFL Playoffs.  It also seems like it worked out perfectly for Jim and his team, they’re gearing up to play the weakest divisional champs the AFC has to offer this year, the Houston Texans.  The Chargers are a whopping 6-3 against the Texans all-time, 4-1 in Houston.  Harbaugh hasn’t coached against the Texans much in his entire head coaching career.  He has seen them a total of four times while coaching the Niners, three of those games were pre-season games in which he went 1-2.  The only regular season game where he coached against the Houston Texans was in 2013 when San Fran scorched them 34-3.        

           

            The Chargers have a huge opportunity this weekend to show the rest of the league exactly what the Jim Harbaugh experience is all about!  I don’t think many thought that the Chargers would be here already, regardless of how great of a coach Jim is.  I know I had them down as a Playoff team for next season, but not now.  It is largely because of players such as quarterback Justin Herbert’s phenomenal play paired with a breakout rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey.  They also had a big year out of (often hurt) J.K. Dobbins’ running back.  Dobbins did miss some time this season though luckily he didn’t suffer any serious injuries this season and hopefully will remain healthy for their playoff run.

            Greg Roman’s offensive scheme didn’t exactly warrant top-ten numbers in any statistical category in year one, however, when you have Justin Herbert throwing the ball you can never count him out.  In the playoffs, they will be matched up against a good defense that has been one of the best against the pass this year.  What is more intriguing about this game will be the defensive play of the Chargers against Houston’s offense.  I will be the battle of the big men up front.  The Chargers are ranked 6^th in sacks this season (46) while the Texans rank 29^th in sacks allowed (54).  This may sound odd given that Houston’s offensive line has been abysmal at pass blocking, but I’m anticipating the Chargers' defense to have more of an issue against the pass than the Texans' run game.  The Chargers are the 7^th best at run-stop-win-rate, while the Texans run-block-win-rate is the second worst in the league this year.

 

CHARGERS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 23.6 (11^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 324.2 (20^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 110.7 (17^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 213.5 (19^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 44 (19^TH)

 

CHARGERS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 17.7 (1^ST)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 324.4 (11^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 117.5 (14^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 206.9 (7^TH)

TOTAL SACKS – 46 (6^TH)

 

            Houston hasn’t looked great this year especially considering how good they played just a year ago.  If you are thinking maybe second-year QB C.J. Stroud had a sophomore slump?  No, it’s not that at all.  Technically, he did regress with his production from his rookie performance (4,108 yards, 23TDs, 5 INTs in 2023; 3,727 yards, 20TDs, 12INTs in 2024) though he has been sacked the second most of any QB this season. (Houston allowed 54 sacks) Furthermore, all three of his top wideouts were injured this season plus the O-line has played awful this year.  I don’t blame Stroud or OC Bobby Slowik for the rapid change of this team's outlook, I blame the men up front for the Texans. 

            When you take notice within the analytics of football, oftentimes you may just go by the win-loss record, the QB’s statistics, or just individual player's numbers.  That will only tell you how good a positional player is not how good or bad the entirety of a team is.  However, if you choose to look at something called team win rates, you will start to get a much better feeling of what kind of team they are.  I mean after all; anyone who knows football knows that the game starts with the guys up front in the trenches.  Espn.com shows every NFL team's win rate ranking, Houston ranks 22^nd in pass-block-win-rate and 31^st in run-block-win-rate.  That kind of clarifies why the Texans haven’t been quite the offensive machine they were last year.

            Defensively Houston has tightened up a whole lot in comparison to last year’s unit.  Derek Stingley Jr. is just a part of the reason why.  That man has played his tail off this season while also putting up career-best numbers across the board and tying his most interceptions (5) for a season.  Both of Houston’s defensive ends, veteran and second-year edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have also had a major impact on the defense with their strong campaigns.  The Texans tied the Minnesota Vikings, becoming the only two teams in the league with multiple players in the top ten in sacks this season. (Hunter 5^th with 12 sacks, Anderson 10^th with 11 sacks)

 

TEXANS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 21.9 (19^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 319.7 (22^ND)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 112.3 (15^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G – 207.4 (21^ST)

SACKS ALLOWED- 54 (29^TH)

 

TEXANS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 21.9 (14^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 315.0 (6^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 114.0 (11^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 201.0 (6^TH)

TOTAL SACKS – 49 (4^TH)

 

 

            This AFC Wild Card matchup will either be a closely contested game or a blowout.  I for one believe it should be a good one.  A lot of sports media outlets along with NFL analysts believe that the Chargers should easily handle the Texans on the road.  I say look for the upset in this game, look for Stroud to do just enough to come out on top.  The Chargers are currently -2.5 favorites in Houston.  NFL Playoffs are always the best sports games of the year, so don’t miss out on the action or you’ll heavily regret it!  Chargers at the Texans on Saturday at 4:30 PM.    

NFL WIN RATE PLAYOFF PLAYERS/TEAMS

 

TOP NFL WIN RATE PLAYERS AMONG PLAYOFF TEAMS PER ESPN.COM

DEFENSIVE LINE WIN RATES

EDGE PASS RUSH WIN RATE

1) DANIELLE HUNTER – TEXANS = 26%

2) WILL ANDERSON JR.- TEXANS = 22%

3) DANTE FOWLER JR. – COMMANDERS = 20%

4) JONATHAN GREENARD – VIKINGS = 20%

5) T.J. WATT – STEELERS = 19%

6) JARED VERSE – RAMS = 18%

7) NIK BONITTO – BRONCOS = 17%

8) ODAFE OWEH – RAVENS = 16%

9) KYLE VAN NOY – RAVENS = 16%

 

DT PASS RUSH WIN RATE

1) CHRIS JONES- CHIEFS = 16%

2) ZACH ALLEN – BRONCOS = 15%

3) MILTON WILLIAMS- EAGLES = 13%

4) VITA VEA – BUCCANEERS = 12%

5) ED OLIVER – BILLS = 12%

6) DAQUAN JONES- BILLS = 11%

7) ALIM MCNEILL- LIONS = 10%

8) MORGAN FOX- CHARGERS = 10%

9) KEEANU BENTON- STEELERS = 10%

10) BRADEN FISKE-  RAMS = 9%

 

EDGE RUN STOP WIN RATE

1) RASHAN GARY- PACKERS = 37%

2) JONATHAN GREENARD- VIKINGS = 32%

3) JARED VERSE – RAMS = 32%

 

DT RUN STOP WIN RATE

   1) T.J. SLATON- PACKERS = 46%

   2) D.J. JONES- BRONCOS = 45%

   3) TIM SETTLE JR.- TEXANS = 40%

   4) MALCOLM ROACH- BRONCOS = 38%

   5) ED OLIVER – BILLS = 38%

 

OFFENSIVE LINE WIN RATES

OT PASS BLOCK WIN RATES

  1) TRISTAN WIRFS- BUCCANEERS = 96%

  2) BRIAN O’NEILL- VIKINGS = 95%

  3) LANE JOHNSON- EAGLES = 94%

  4) MIKE MCGLINCHEY- BRONCOS = 94%

  5) GARETT BOLLES- BRONCOS = 93%

  6) DION DAWKINS- BILLS = 93%

  7) ANDREW WYLIE- COMMANDERS = 93%

  8) LAREMY TUNSIL- TEXANS = 93%

  9) DAN MOORE JR.- STEELERS = 93%                                                                

       10) RONNIE STANLEY- RAVENS = 92%

       11) TAYLOR DECKER- LIONS = 92%

       12) JORDAN MAILATA- EAGLES = 92%

       13) SPENCER BROWN- BILLS = 92%

       14) JAWAAN TAYLOR- CHIEFS = 92%

       15) ZACH TOM- PACKERS = 92%

       16) PENEI SEWELL- LIONS = 91%

 

IOL PASS BLOCKING WIN RATE

1) JOE THUNEY- CHIEFS = 98%

2) LUKE WATTENBERG – BRONCOS = 98%

3) QUINN MEINERZ – BRONCOS = 97%

4) TYLER LINDERBAUM – RAVENS = 97%

5) BEN POWERS – BRONCOS = 96%

6) CREED HUMPHREY – CHIEFS = 96%

7) CAM JURGENS – EAGLES = 95%

8) CONNOR MCGOVERN- BILLS = 95%

9) ZACH FRAZIER – STEELERS = 95%

    10) PATRICK MEKARI- RAVENS = 95%

                11) TYLER BIADASZ- COMMANDERS = 95%

OT RUN BLOCK WIN RATE

1) ROGER ROSENGARTEN- RAVENS = 84%

2) LANE JOHNSON – EAGLES = 80%

3) ROB HAVENSTEIN – RAMS = 79%

4) BRANDON COLEMAN- COMMANDERS = 79%

5) CORNELIUS LUCAS – COMMANDERS = 79%

6) RASHAWN SLATER – CHARGERS = 79%

IOL RUN BLOCK WIN RATE

1) BEN POWERS- BRONCOS = 78%

2) SAM COSMI- COMMANDERS = 75%

3) TREY SMITH – CHIEFS = 75%

4) ISAAC SEUMALO – STEELERS = 75%

 

 

NFL WIN RATES BY TEAM & RANKED BY BEST AVERAGE PERCENTAGE

 

1) DEN = PRWR 46% (2^ND), RSWR 32% (8^TH), PBWR 74% (1^ST), RBWR 75% (1^ST)

2)MIN= PRWR 46%(4^TH), RSWR 33% (4^TH), PBWR 70% (2^ND), RBWR 72% (15^TH)

3) PHI= PRWR 43%(8^TH), RSWR 33% (3^RD), PBWR 67% (6^TH), RBWR 72% (9^TH)

4) BUF= PRWR 45%(6^TH), RSWR 33% (5^TH), PBWR 68% (4^TH), RBWR 71% (17^TH)

5) WAS= PRWR 43%(7^TH), RSWR 30%(23^RD), PBWR 66%(9^TH), RBWR 74%(2^ND)

6) PIT=PRWR 46%(3^RD), RSWR 30%(17^TH), PBWR 62%(13^TH), RBWR 71%(24^TH)

7) TB= PRWR 42% (11^TH), RSWR 27% (31^ST), PBWR 68% (5^TH), RBWR 73% (6^TH)

8)LAC=PRWR 37%(22^ND), RSWR 32%(7^TH), PBWR 65%(11^TH), RBWR72%(13^TH)

9) KC = PRWR 37% (19^TH), RSWR 30%(21^ST), PBWR 67%(8^TH), RBWR 73% (7^TH)

10)HOU=PRWR 49%(1^ST), RSWR 34%(2^ND),PBWR 58%(22^ND),RBWR 68%(31^ST)

11)BAL=PRWR 33%(29^TH), RSWR 30%(22^ND),PBWR 70%(3^RD), RBWR 74%(3^RD)

12)LA=PRWR 37%(18^TH),RSWR 32%(11^TH),PBWR 59%(20^TH), RBWR72%(12^TH)

13)GB=PRWR 35% (26^TH), RSWR 33%(6^TH), PBWR 67%(7^TH), RBWR 71% (23^RD)

14)DET=PRWR 35% (25^TH),RSWR 30% (19^TH),PBWR 64% (12^TH),RBWR 72% (16^TH)

TOP TEN DEFENSES

 

TOP TEN OFFENSES

 

AFC NORTH REVIEW

 

CLEVELAND BROWNS – 3-13

        Cleveland seemed like a team that could’ve potentially surprised some people coming into the season.  Many had hoped that Deshaun Watson would return to how he had once performed as the Houston Texans quarterback before all his off-field issues.  That was not even close to the case for him, or this miserable Browns franchise this season, thus now they are looking at next season hoping that Watson can at the very least stay healthy.  Watson hasn’t been able to play a full season yet for the Browns, which is one of the reasons why they went ahead and restructured the quarterback’s contract.  Now if they were to cut ties with Deshaun, they would accrue a dead cap of $119 million after June 1^st.  This team still possesses a huge threat on defense, along with a lot of talent coming from their skilled positions such as their wideouts, tight ends, and running backs.  This is a loaded division with the likes of the Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers, though the Browns could be right in the thick of things if they could just get consistent average or better play from their quarterback.

 

CINCINNATI BENGALS – 8-8

        The Bengals are certainly not out of the playoff discussion for this year just yet.  Tomorrow is their biggest game of the season and will tell us whether they’ll still potentially have a shot to make it in, though, even with a victory they will still have to wait until the Dolphins and Broncos games come to an end before they get clearance on their postseason hopes.  Joe Burrow is creating a lot of controversy over who the MVP should be this year with his superb play this season.  The biggest part of the controversy is that the Bengals are on the cusp of not making it into the playoffs but at no fault to Burrow’s play or the offense in general.  Lou Anarumo, Cincy’s defensive coordinator, doesn’t have his defense at the same level of play as he did last year.  This is the main cause of the team’s issues this season, while also the complication in why Burrow is not the favorite to win the MVP.  Joe Burrow leads the league in passing yards (4,641 yards), completions & attempts (423, 606), yards per game (290.1 ypg), and touchdowns (42).  He is also second in QBR with 76.7 and has the third-best QB rating this season (109.8).

        Cincinnati may possess the best offense in NFL history to not make the playoffs come Sunday night.  What they have achieved this year on that side of the ball is ridiculous.  We know how great Burrow is but the crazy thing about this offense is that they didn’t seem to miss a beat even when they were without starting wide receiver Tee Higgins for a handful of games.  How could they have so much success without their 1B wideout?  Easy, they still have Ja’Marr Chase, a clear top three wideout since he came into the NFL.  Don’t believe he’s the cream of the crop?  Chase is atop the list in basically every category that exists for the statistical production of his position!  The man is first in receptions (117 rec), receiving yards (1,612 yards), touchdowns (16 TDs), yards per game (100.8 ypg), yards after the catch (761 yac), and first-down receptions (71 FD).

        Zac Taylor and Burrow have the Bengals on a five-game winning streak as of late.  Another win for Cincy this week over the Pittsburgh Steelers would not only help themselves in a major way by staying alive in the hunt for January football but would also help the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North.  If the Bengals were to make the playoffs one would think that Burrow would then become the clear favorite for this year's MVP.  Ja’Marr Chase is also playing for a historic accomplishment, the WR triple crown.  The last time any wideout finished the regular season as the leading receiver in yards, receptions, and touchdowns was Cooper Kupp in 2021.  There have only been four wideouts that have achieved this feat (Kupp in 21, Steve Smith in 2005, Sterling Sharp in 1992, and Jerry Rice in 1990) Chase will become the fifth.  In this, the last game of the regular season, on the road the Bengals are the odds-on favorite (-2.5) against a recently sliding Pittsburgh Steelers team.

 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS – 10-6

        The black & gold or black & yellow Steelers have had a very interesting season so far.  Mike Tomlin has long proven his worth to the city of steel and the rest of the NFL, having never ended a season with a losing record.  He once again showed just how great of a head coach he is this year, recording a record of 10-6 with one more week remaining in the regular season and a chance to win the AFC North with another win this week.  Pittsburgh has a long history of marching out some of the very best defenses the NFL has ever had, this year is no different.  The problem with the Steelers has been their offense, particularly since the retirement of future Hall of Fame QB Ben Roethlisberger.  This season Tomlin wanted to solve the team’s typical reason for a lack of success in the past couple of years, the quarterback position.  With a pair of savvy moves in the offseason coach Tomlin along with General Manager Omar Khan brought in two previous starting QBs from last season to attempt to fix those issues.  Both Justin Fields and Russell Wilson have shown adequate play as the Steelers starters, though it was rather clear that Wilson gave them more upside in the short term to compete with the high-powered offenses that their divisional foes possess.

        While Tomlin is certainly in the running for the COTY award, they also have a top DPOTY favorite in T.J. Watt.  This version of the Steelers' defense may not be the “Steel Curtain” though they are still one of the best defensive units in the league.  Watt is just one of the reasons why they are in that small group of elite units leaguewide.  Another player who has been a game wrecker who doesn’t get nearly enough credit is veteran defensive tackle Cam Heyward.  He is now 35 years old, in his 14^th season yet has played like someone with half his wear & tear.  They have playmakers all over this defense like safety Mikah Fitzpatrick, linebackers Alex Highsmith, and ex-Raven Patrick Queen.  Pittsburgh received great news as it has been reported that they will get their starting cornerback Joey Porter Jr. back for this divisional game in a must-win matchup.  Teryl Austin’s defense has been rolling on all cylinders this season and looks ready for the challenge against this incredibly talented Cincinnati Bengals offense on Saturday Night.  The Steelers are currently breathing rare air in a three-game losing streak, though they have already clinched a playoff spot they still have a Division Championship on the line.  Knowing the type of head coach Mike Tomlin is he doesn’t just want this one for potentially taking the AFC North title, but also to make a statement ahead of their playoff game.  Those that may be quick to think the Bengals will walk into Pittsburgh, bully them around in their stadium, and walk out with a win, let me just remind you that these Steelers already beat the Bengals in Cincy back in week 13 when they put 44 points up on the Bengals.  

 

BALTIMORE RAVENS – 11-5

        Baltimore is in a rather sticky situation heading into their final week of the season.  They currently sit in third place in the AFC and even though they cannot move up in the rankings they can certainly wind up moving back.  Usually, you wouldn’t exactly want to go into your last regular season game playing your starters, but the Ravens haven’t locked up the AFC North yet with those pesky Pittsburgh Steelers on their tails.  The Ravens lost to the Browns back in week eight and had it not been for that loss they would be able to rest all their starters for their next week’s matchup which has yet to be determined.  Baltimore has one more win than Pittsburgh but the same division record which is why they need to make sure they come out of this week with a win.  If they were to come up short to the Browns and their QB Bailey Zappe, who was named their week 18 starter just a day ago, well then, the late game between the Bengals and Steelers would become all that more interesting.

          When it comes to this year's MVP you can take your pick, Saquon Barkley, Josh Allen, Jared Goff, and possibly even Joe Burrow (if they make the playoffs) but I think that Lamar Jackson should still be heavily involved in those discussions as well.  I understand Lamar won the award last season, though he has already topped his numbers from last year’s season-long performance.  Jackson may be ranked 5^th in passing yards as we approach week 18, though the man is averaging more yards per pass than any other QB while also pacing the league in both passer rating (121.6) and QBR (78.0).  He has also thrown 39 touchdowns (tied for 2^nd) and just 4 interceptions.  There has only been one season-long starter that has thrown fewer picks this season (Justin Herbert, 3 INTs).  In addition to his passing don’t forget Lamar has also done some damage to the ground. Baltimore’s quarterback has scored another 4 TDs, rushing for 852 yards (21^st in rushing yards) while averaging 6.6 yards per rush (the best average among any player who’s attempted at least 130 or more runs).

         Baltimore should get an easy win this week and you’d think they will have a large enough lead after the first half so they can at least rest their starters for the second half of their game.  With a win over the Browns, the Ravens will lock up the AFC North with another division title regardless of the outcome of the Steelers game.  If this ends up being the case, then Baltimore will host either the Chargers or the Steelers in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs.  The Ravens end the regular season tomorrow at home against Cleveland and are the heavy favorites (-19.5) ahead of their 4:30 PM ET kickoff.  

TOP TEN TIGHT ENDS

 

NFC NORTH STARS

 

        The Green Bay Packers accomplished something last Monday night that no other team has been able to pull off this year.  For the first time this season, a team was shut out.  It isn’t particularly surprising, the Packers have a good defense plus the New Orleans were missing their QB, running back, both of their starting receivers, their swiss army knife (Taysom Hill) plus a handful of other starters.  It was the first time the Saints had been shut out in over two decades.  Minnesota was also victorious last week in a game with a hungry Seattle Seahawks group.  The Vikings were in charge for most of that game, but Seattle did make it interesting late in the fourth quarter when their offense started to come to life.  Geno marched his guys down the field on an 11-play drive, taking up over six minutes of the clock in the process.  Sixty-eight yards later Smith threw a touchdown that would put them up by four points, leaving only four minutes and twenty-one seconds remaining.  On the ensuing drive, Sam Darnold showed us once again how potent this Vikings offense can be as it only took thirty seconds on four plays to go 70 yards for another score. (Vikings B. Murphy was penalized on a face mask hold for 15 yards).  Seattle got the ball once more, and tried a 60-yard field goal, but ultimately missed.

 

        Jordan Love has propelled the Pack to 11 wins already this season.  They could potentially end the season as one of only a few teams to ever win 13 games yet not win their division.  If you think that sounds weird how about the fact that they could also wind up as the third-best team in the North?  Yeah, crazy. That’s just how darn good this NFC North group of teams have been this year.  History shows that there have never been three 13-win teams within the same division.  When the Packers met the Vikings earlier this season the Vikings got the best of the Packers, winning 31-29.  The turnovers are what played the biggest role in the end the first time around, Green Bay had four, while Minnesota had three.  Matt LaFleur could only watch as his offense went scoreless in two of the first three-quarters of the game.  Then Love almost brought them all the way back for a win as the cheese heads cheered their Packers on as they scored 22 points in the fourth quarter, but to no avail still losing by two points. 

 

PACKERS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 27.5 (7^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 377.3 (4^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 147.3 (4^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 230.1 (12^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 16 (2^ND)

 

PACKERS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 19.1 (6^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 312.1 (6^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 102.5 (8^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 209.7 (9^TH)

TOTAL SACKS-  43 (6^TH)

 

        Minnesota hasn’t just been one of the best teams in the entire league this year but is also silently attempting to do something that no one could’ve foreseen coming.  Kevin O’Connell has had his team in a great position all season long to contend for the NFC North Championship.  With a win this week, they can do just that heading into a week 18 game against one of the league's best offenses in their number one rivals, the Detroit Lions.  Many thought that Sam Darnold couldn’t become a true franchise quarterback after his tenure with the New York Jets.  Though in hindsight if we knew then what we know now in terms of the Jets franchise and how it has been run for years we would have been a little less critical of Sam. 

        The Vikings beat the Packers in their prior meeting during their 5-game win streak.  They have only lost two games so far this season and both losses came after that win streak.  The first was against the Lions, 31-29 and the other loss was to the Rams in Los Angeles 30-20.  Since the second loss in week 8 Minnesota hasn’t lost another game, winning 8 straight games.  It is almost unthinkable with how great the Lions and Eagles have been this year that the Vikings still have a very good chance of locking up the number one seed in the NFC.  They hold their destiny in their hands.  Two more wins and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs plus the additional bye week before playing a postseason game.

 

VIKINGS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 26.4 (9^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 346.3 (12^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 111.1 (16^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 235.3 (8^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 46 (24^TH)

 

VIKINGS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 18.4 (3^RD)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 335.8 (16^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 87.1 (2^ND)

PASS YARDS P/G- 248.7 (30^TH)

TOTAL SACKS – 44 (5^TH)

 

        This will be a very tough game to try and predict.  They are evenly matched on the offensive side of the ball.  Even the defenses are comparable, the one big difference I can see is against the opposing team's passing.  Green Bay allows 209 yards in passing yards (9^th) while Minnesota is conceding an average of 248 yards (30^th) a contest.  It makes sense that the Vikings are giving up the 30^th most pass yards a game when you think about how Brian Flores's (MIN DC) defense leads the league in QB pressures on both 1^st and 3^rd downs.  One of the key matchups I will be looking for is Josh Jacobs vs. the Vikings 16^th 16th-ranked rush defense.  The other one is rather obvious, Vikings' one-two receiving threat in Jefferson & Addison going up against Green Bay defensive backs.  Especially now that the Packers will be without their top cornerback Jaire Alexander after being ruled out with a knee injury.  I am leaning toward the -1.5-point favorites, the 13-2 Minnesota Vikings at home.   

NFC WEST GRUDGE MATCH - CARDINALS VS. RAMS

 

        Los Angeles heads into a home game in week 17 with a ten-point win after a road trip to the East Coast.  Last week the Rams beat Aaron Rodgers and his New York Jets in a game that saw very little offense.  There was a total of 563 yards between both teams.  Now the Rams have two regular season games remaining, both divisional games.  This is the healthiest the Rams have been all season, and it comes at the best possible time.  The Cardinals are coming into town this week, they last played one another in week two.  Next week however will be the most important week for L.A. regardless of whether they win or lose on Saturday Night.

 

        I guess I’ll go ahead and address the elephant in the room before I go any further.  Everyone who’s read my articles knows I have been backing one NFC West team since the beginning of the season.  This team had a rollercoaster of a season, and it seemed they had turned the corner this time.  I really thought this would be their year though we’ll have to wait until next year to see if the Arizona Cardinals can achieve what I had hoped to see this season.  However, the Cardinals still showed a lot of perseverance, resilience, and strength as a team through their ups and downs.  I believe their play this year will only coarsen the entire unit on both sides of the ball for the following year.  Kyler’s back to his rookie form, this being his first full season since his injury two years ago.  James Conner is still running hard, plus this was the best O-line play I’ve seen out of a Cardinals team in a while.  Arizona’s second-year head coach Jonathan Gannon is the right fit for this franchise, and I fully expect him to be there for the next several seasons. 

       

         They say good things will come to those who wait.  Patience is a virtue; this is certainly the case for the fanbase of these Arizona Cardinals who haven’t seen a single playoff win in the past nine years.  Gannon’s team may not be eligible to make the postseason, but they can play spoiler to one of the other two teams in their division.  If the Cardinals beat the Rams on Saturday night it will be a season sweep for the Cards, although it would also help the Seahawks in a winner-take-all scenario between them and the Rams in their week 18 matchup.  The other side of this would be if the Cards came up short in a loss, causing the Seattle Seahawks ultimately, to become all but eliminated from playoff contention. 

        Next year should end with better results for Kyler Murray's statistics and the Cardinals' overall record.  Further expectations for this club lie in the Murray to Harrison Jr. connection, which I firmly believe to become quite a perilous one.  A building block in tight end Tre McBride has been put in place and they must continue to build around him. They may draft a younger running back to help keep Conner fresh thus slightly lessening his workload.  For those that may not remember, in their first meeting in week two the Cardinals steamrolled the Rams in Arizona 41-10.  Though, in all fairness, Mike LaFleur’s (Los Angeles OC) offense was struggling to start the year with several key injuries to the O-line, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp (Kupp was injured in that week two game).  Arizona had a leaky defense for a lot of this season, it looked as though they were starting to turn it around but that is the side of the ball that is keeping them from making the playoffs.

          

CARDINALS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 22.9 (12^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 353.4 (11^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 145.8 (5^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 207.6 (20^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 26 (5^TH)

 

CARDINALS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 22.8 (15^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 342.0 (20^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 129.5 (22^ND)

PASS YARDS P/G- 212.5 (15^TH)

TOTAL SACKS – 39 (11^TH)

 

 

        Just when you think the Los Angeles Rams are down and out, they come back in a major way, bouncing back after overcoming a season in which they were plagued by injuries.  How do you fight when your top two wideouts are lost for a lengthy amount of the season?  How about when three starters on your O-line go down?  Maybe add in the fact that the Rams' all-time best defensive player in the history of their team retires leaving your defense with a bunch of young players with little to no experience, while you also lose your defensive coordinator of the previous three seasons.  It’s seemingly all a part of the Sean McVay system.  They were continuously able to weather the storm no matter how powerful it became.  Sports Illustrated says that only 11.5% of NFL teams that have started the season with a 0-2 record from 1990-2023 have been able to make the postseason.  While that is an impressive statistic, I think you’ll like this one better; of that 11.5% of teams (32 teams) that were able to make the playoffs, just 17 of those 32 were able to win their divisions (6.1%).  If you want to know if any of them have won a Super Bowl, the answer is yes.  Three of those such teams (1.1%) were able to come away with a Lombardi Trophy.  However, the Rams started this season 1-4.  The Statistics for teams that have started 1-4, yet still made the playoffs are far fewer, with just 6 teams being able to overcome such a tragic start to their seasons.  Four of those six teams were even able to win a playoff game.  The bad news for the Rams is, upon finding such a comparable team to them in the Tennessee Titans, they did make it out of the first round of the playoffs, but they did not make it past the Conference Championship round.

        Los Angeles did not make it back to fall short though and I expect them to win the NFC West whether they win or lose tomorrow night.  I don’t want to start any rumors here, but I do remember a few weeks ago when a member of the media had asked head coach Sean McVay about a possible Aaron Donald return if the Rams were able to make a playoff run.  McVay responded in the best possible way, saying that he respects that man entirely too much to even speculate on such a matter and that he would never reach out to the retiree, but that if Donald ever were to reach out to him, he would then and only then take him back for one last run.  It was very puzzling to witness some of the Rams home games this season and see that there appeared to be almost as many if not more visiting fans, than Rams fans in Sofi.  Maybe they don’t have as many fans as I once thought, maybe more of the L.A. fanbase belongs to the Chargers, or is it because they seemed like a doomed and gloomy team early on?  Whatever the case maybe I need all Los Angeles Rams fans to start showing admiration for this compelling story of a team!

RAMS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 21.9 (15^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 331.5 (15^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 107.5 (19^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 224.0 (13^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 28 (7^TH)

 

RAMS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 23.1 (18^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 351.1 (24^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 131.4 (25^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 219.7 (18^TH)

TOTAL SACKS – 25 (32^ND)

        It may pain me to say this because I have been rooting for Arizona since last August, but I believe that with the Rams' offense fully healthy they will torch the Cardinals.  Stafford is still one of the best football QBs.  Arizona may have the edge when it comes to the tight end position and maybe even a slight edge with their offensive line, but the Rams have one of the very best wideout tandems in the league.  They also possess a younger, more versatile runner in Kyren Williams.  The Cardinals' defense has also averaged slightly better numbers than the Rams.  However, L.A. has been on the upswing as of late, while Arizona has faltered the past few weeks.  I previously pointed out this game will take place on Saturday Night at Sofi Stadium and the rallying Rams are being favored by -6.5.

CHRISTMAS DAY SPECIAL PART II- RAVENS VS. TEXANS

            In the second time slot for the Christmas Day special that has been brought to Netflix by the NFL, we will see another matchup with two more AFC playoff teams.  The Houston Texans are still a fun team to watch, though they are not the same explosive Texans that were blowing up the league last season.  Last year we witnessed this exact game played in the postseason.  The Baltimore Ravens bulldozed this team in the Divisional Round, winning 34-10 at home.  Baltimore has beaten Houston in five straight meetings, currently leading the all-time series 12-2-0.  The last time the Texans captured a win over John Harbaugh was in 2014 at Houston (25-13).

 

         What can I say about the Purple and Black?  Well, it’s no secret that all their successes this season have been surrounded by what Lamar and Henry have been able to do this year.  Lamar is coming off an MVP season and is making a stalwart case to hoist that award in back-to-back years.  Action Jackson is one of the most amazingly gifted talents the NFL has ever seen and what he can do as both a passer and runner never ceases to amaze.  Baltimore’s QB is ranked 5^th in passing yards (3,787), 1^st in average yards per pass (8.9), and 5^th in yards per game (252.5).  The only quarterback with more touchdown passes this season is Joe Burrow with 39, Lamar has thrown 37.  There is also only one QB better than Jackson in interceptions thrown (4 INTs).  When it comes to QBR (75.5) he’s second to Josh Allen while pacing all quarterbacks in passer rating (120.6).  This offense with Todd Monken has often appeared to be a match made in heaven.  Their play-caller has looked like a genius for much of the season, though we also know how good the talent on the field is.

        Derrick Henry has also been on a statistical tear all season.  They call him “King” Henry for a reason!  Henry has given way to Saquon Barkley for the leading rusher this season and it appears as though he may very well take the title by the end of the next two weeks.  Anyhow, Henry has already amassed 1,600 rushing yards this year and is less than 400 yards from a 2,000-yard season.  He is tied with Barkley for the most yards per carry and ties Barkley with the second-most rushing TDs (13).  Henry’s 78 rushing first downs place second, while his 87-yard run is the longest run from scrimmage this season.  While the Texans have had a decent defense this year, their weakness has been their run defense.  There is no doubt that Moken will dial up a bunch of runs for Henry to remind everyone yet again why he is notoriously known as the King of rushing.

 

RAVENS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 30.1 (3^RD)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 423.7 (1^ST)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 181.2 (2^ND)

PASS YARDS P/G- 242.5 (5^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 23 (4^TH)

 

RAVENS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 23.3 (19^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 338.0 (16^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 83.1 (1^ST)

PASS YARDS P/G- 254.9 (31^ST)

TOTAL SACKS- 47 (2^ND)

 

         Houston has been a good team this season, though not the same formidable bunch that they showed us a year ago.  The offense has regressed, while also banged up for vastly most of the year.  The O-line play has been very bad this time around, especially in pass protection.  Houston’s big men have allowed the sixth most sacks this season, C.J. has been sacked the second most (47 times) of any quarterback this year.  Between the line not being able to hold up for Stroud in addition to him having to play without each of his three best targets at different times this season, it has been frustrating for both C.J. and the Texans to say the least.  They have continued to fight throughout everything they’ve had to deal with.  Let’s not forget, even though they didn’t come away with the victory they played the Detroit Lions better than most teams in the league had this year.  They are now coming off a game in which they lost to the Chiefs on Saturday in a tough battle.  The hardest part of that game was when Tank Dell caught a touchdown early in the third quarter for what should’ve been the tying score (missed PAT) but as Dell caught said score his teammate went to the ground and fell into his knee causing engrossed concern for the wideout.  Tank ended up with a torn ACL and dislocated kneecap.  It was a lamentable situation for the young receiver who came back earlier this season from another injury and is now lost for the second straight year to a season-ending injury. 

 

TEXANS OFFENSE:

TOTAL POINTS P/G- 23.1 (13^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 323.3 (20^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 109.6 (18^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 213.7 (18^TH)

SACK ALLOWED- 48 (27^TH)

 

TEXANS DEFENSE:

TOTAL POINTS P/G- 21.8 (9^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G-307.3 (4^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 106.8 (11^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 200.5 (6^TH)

TOTAL SACKS- 46 (T-3^RD)

 

         The Texans may have played KC tight last week though I don’t know if they will be able to do the same here against Baltimore.  If you want to take down the Lamar-led Ravens, they will need to figure out a way to score way more than 19 points.  This will be an even harder task without Dell when they’ve already been without Diggs.  If they are going to do it, they will have to keep a clean pocket for Stroud.  This will also prove to be quite difficult as the Ravens are second in the NFL with 47 sacks.  Texans OC Bobby Slowik will need to find ways to have C.J. get the ball out quickly to tight end Dalton Schultz, running back Joe Mixon, or his top target on the outside, Nico Collins.  The biggest weakness of the Ravens' defense has been their ability to engage in pass defense.  They are allowing the second most passing yards per contest and if they can somehow pass protect that will be their best chance to rain on Baltimore’s Christmas Day parade.  The game plan for Baltimore should provide a simpler plan to be crowned with another win and possibly the AFC North title barring a win from the Steelers.  As I briefly mentioned above, Todd Monken will need a run-heavy approach which will be no problem for this team.  Houston’s offense hasn’t been great, though their defense is ranked inside the top ten in every statistical classification other than against the run.  They cede 106.8 yards per game (11^th) and the Ravens should be able to widen that amount to about 160-190 yards if I should be so bold.  Baltimore is going into this game as the -4 point favorite and I like them to win outright on a short week.