The regular season has ended, and the
fourteen best teams are on to postseason play.
Wild Card weekend has a full slate of great games, one of which will be
a divisional matchup. The Pittsburgh
Steelers are making their second trip to Baltimore in three weeks. Baltimore is playing at home for the fourth
time in the past six weeks. Mike Tomlin’s
Steelers took the first game between these rivals, while John Harbaugh’s Ravens
bested Russell Wilson and company in the second matchup. Only one of these two teams will be heading
into the Divisional Round of the Playoffs, thus the third time will be the
charm for whoever comes away victorious.
Pittsburgh is in unfamiliar territory
losing four straight games en route to the playoffs. Mike Tomlin, their leader and head coach of
the last 18 years, is staring down the team that you’d assume he would least
like to face in the opening round of the playoffs. If the Steelers were to lose, we would witness
something that has only happened twice before to a Tomlin-coached team, the Steelers
losing five straight games. Now I think everyone
can understand what I mean when I say this Baltimore team is probably the last
team coach Tomlin would want to see. It’s
not purely about the fact that Lamar has been playing better than either of his
MVP seasons, it’s not because they have a 1,900 + yard rusher at 6’2”, 247lbs,
or the fact that the Ravens possess the third-best scoring offense in the NFL. The reality is that no team in the playoffs
knows the Steelers as well as the Ravens do!
As I had previously alluded to in my article about the Steelers-Ravens most
recent game, rivalry matchups are always the trickiest games to choose a victor
for because they know each other’s tendencies so well that even the worst of
teams can beat the best team in divisional environments.
Pittsburgh has been 8-4 against Baltimore
since 2019. Verily, they are 36-26
all-time when matching up with the Ravens, including a 3-1 playoff record over
their supreme rivals. With that said
there has been a lot of talk about the possibility of the Steelers playing
backup quarterback Justin Fields in some capacity for this game. Why would they move on from Wilson after
replacing Fields in favor of Russell earlier this season? Well, maybe this kind of talk derives from the
Steelers’ four consecutive games of scoring 17 or fewer points, a streak their
offense hasn’t fallen victim to since the 2003 season. The credence that replacing Wilson with
Fields could be the answer to an upset over Lamar Jackson doesn’t make sense to
me. Here’s why, with Fields as their
starter in his six games, the Steelers averaged 20.6 points per game, while in Wilson’s
eleven starts, they averaged 23.3 points a game. Frankly, I don’t think it matters much who
the starter is, though what could be the x-factor for this game is to game plan
to have both men in the lineup. Let me clarify
my thoughts, I would like to see both quarterbacks play on Saturday night in
Baltimore. How about cooking up some
packages where both Fields and Wilson are out there at the same time, I mean
Justin Fields is an unbelievable athlete, and maybe have a few bubble screens for
him, or some direct snaps to him to let him do what he does best, run! Heck, I mean, you can also throw him the rock
a few times, that’ll catch the defense off guard.
STEELERS
OFFENSE:
POINTS
PER GAME- 22.4 (16TH)
TOTAL
YARDS P/G- 319.4 (22ND)
RUSH
YARDS P/G- 127.4 (11TH)
PASS
YARDS P/G- 192.0 (27TH)
SACKS
ALLOWED- 49 (23RD)
STEELERS
DEFENSE:
POINTS
PER GAME- 20.4 (8TH)
TOTAL
YARDS P/G- 326.7 (12TH)
RUSH
YARDS P/G- 98.7 (6TH)
PASS
YARDS P/G- 228.0 (25TH)
TOTAL
SACKS- 40 (16TH)
Baltimore has been red hot lately, winning
four straight games, while winners of six of their last eight. We all see how great the Ravens offense has
been throughout the year, however, the recent turnaround on the defensive side
of the ball is what caught my eye. Over
their last three games defensive coordinator Zach Orr has had his guys only surrender
9.6 points per game. If you don’t think
that’s saying a lot, let me remind you that two of their last three games were against
playoff teams. However, it gets even
better because, since week 11 this revived defensive unit has only allowed an
average of 15.4 points to their opponents.
Due to a knee injury, they will be without Jackson’s number-one target
Zay Flowers. I believe this offense
still has more than enough firepower to get the job done even without Flowers
in the lineup.
Yes, the Ravens are just 1-3 all-time when facing Pittsburgh
in the playoffs. The funny thing about that
is every single one of those games was played in Pittsburgh. The last time they met in postseason play was
in 2015, becoming the first time the Ravens bested them. When looking at the ESPN.com list of Team Win
Rate Rankings it is pretty clear that the Steelers are the better team in the
trenches with their o-line matchup against the Ravens’ d-line as their
run-block-win-rate is better than Baltimore’s run-stop-win-rate, and their pass-block-win-rate
is also better than the Ravens pass-rush-win-rate. At the same time, the Ravens are second in
the league in sacks, Pittsburgh has allowed 49 sacks (23rd), and in
terms of the run game, the Steelers are producing the 11th-best rushing offense
against the Ravens’ league-leading run defense.
RAVENS
OFFENSE:
POINTS
PER GAME- 30.5 (3RD)
TOTAL
YARDS P/G- 424.9 (1ST)
RUSH
YARDS P/G- 187.6 (1ST)
PASS
YARDS P/G- 237.4 (7TH)
SACKS
ALLOWED- 24 (4TH)
RAVENS
DEFENSE:
POINTS
PER GAME- 21.2 (9TH)
TOTAL
YARDS P/G- 324.2 (10TH)
RUSH
YARDS P/G- 80.1 (1ST)
PASS
YARDS P/G- 244.1 (31ST)
TOTAL
SACKS- 54 (2ND)
In conclusion, it is clear the better offense belongs to the Ravens, while the better defense is Pittsburgh. If the Steelers allow 20 or more rushes to Derrick
Henry, they’re in trouble, as the Ravens are undefeated this season when Henry
accomplishes just that. Another statistic
in favor of the Ravens is that Tomlin hasn’t won a road playoff game since 2016
and is just 2-5 in playoff postseason games in totality. Tomlin is a great head coach but has
struggled throughout his career in the playoffs with a record of 8-10 all-time. Harbaugh is 12-10 in his playoff career and
3-3 as the home team. The last thing I will
say is that as great as Lamar Jackson is, he has a 2-4 record against the
Steelers since becoming the Ravens quarterback. Heading into this Wild Card game on Saturday at 8 PM, Baltimore is -9.5
favorites at home. For Lamar Jackson to solidify himself as one of the greatest at the quarterback position, it is imperative for the Ravens to come out victorious.
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