Don’t look now but the Denver
Broncos are in the playoffs for the first time since hoisting their third
Lombardi Trophy in 2015. The Broncos
rookie QB Bo Nix outplayed all expectations along with all other rookie quarterbacks,
not named Jayden Daniels. Credit to Nix,
though a lot of his success was because of one of the best offensive-minded
coaches the NFL has seen in head coach Sean Payton. This Sunday afternoon Payton will be coaching
on the opposite sideline of an old foe Sean McDermott, who coached against
Payton twice a year for six years (2011-2016) when he was the Carolina Panthers
defensive coordinator. McDermott holds a
3-1 record when coaching against the Denver Broncos, while Sean Payton is 3-1
all-time against the Buffalo Bills. Payton
is only in his second season as the Broncos coach, though he did square off
against McDermott's squad last year, dramatically coming away with the win in
Buffalo on a Monday Night game.
The Denver Broncos have been a solid
team this year. They beat the teams they
were expected to beat, yet lost to the top-tier teams, leaving a lot to be
desired. They played five playoff teams
in the regular season this year and beat two of them, defeating the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers on the road in week 3 (26-7), then they beat the Kansas City Chiefs
backups last week at home 38-0. The Broncos'
point differential in losses against playoff opponents that are not named the
Baltimore Ravens this season is -23 points.
Keep in mind both the Chiefs and the Chargers are also in the postseason;
Denver plays both teams twice a year thus the Broncos played 7 games against top-tier
teams. This means they have had an
average point differential of just -5.75 in their 4 losses to the Steelers,
Chiefs, and Chargers.
Sean Payton comes into this matchup
as a 4-1 underdog against the spread in his career in the postseason for all
the bettors out there. The Broncos have
a record of 3-2 when playing against teams in the east this season and are one
of only two teams that have been able to beat the Bills in Buffalo in the last calendar
year. Buffalo has been perfect at home
this season but lost to the Chiefs at home in the playoffs last year along with
losing to the Broncos at home in the regular season on the night when the clip
of the Bills' old OC Ken Dorsey went viral after becoming irate and throwing
his clipboard amongst other things in the press box. That night last season with little to no
offense that was provided by Broncos ex-QB Russell Wilson, and a less impressive
defense somehow came away with a 24-22 victory on a Monday Night. In Denver’s history, they have not matched up
all that well against the Bills, losing 23 games and winning 17. The two teams have only played once in the
playoffs, the Bills winning in the 1992 AFC Championship game. Ironically of those 17 wins the Broncos have
had against them, 12 of them came in Buffalo. (Denver has won 44.4% of the games
they’ve played in Buffalo)
BRONCOS
OFFENSE:
POINTS
PER GAME- 25.0 (10TH)
TOTAL
YARDS P/G- 324.6 (19TH)
RUSH
YARDS P/G- 112.6 (16TH)
PASS
YARDS P/G- 212.4 (20TH)
SACKS
ALLOWED- 24 (3RD)
BRONCOS
DEFENSE:
POINTS
PER GAME- 18.3 (3RD)
TOTAL
YARDS P/G- 317.1 (7TH)
RUSH
YARDS P/G- 96.4 (3RD)
PASS
YARDS P/G- 220.7 (19TH)
TOTAL
SACKS- 63 (1ST)
Buffalo seems to be a team primed to
make a deep postseason run this season. They
beat the Kansas City Chiefs this season, are undefeated at home, and only
suffered one major loss this season (35-10 against Baltimore). Josh Allen looks to be the most likely player
to win the MVP this season and has had the most impressive season in his
career. Only five QBs have ever thrown
for 20 + touchdowns while also rushing for 10 or more in the same season, Allen
has now accomplished this feat twice in his career. Think about it, the man placed 7th
among QBs with 28 air touchdowns, yet he also finished the regular season ranked
9th in rushing TDs. Josh
Allen is an unbelievable all-around athlete, he accounted for the 4th
most touchdowns (41) this season behind only Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and
Baker Mayfield. Another notable mention
would be that when facing blitzes Allen has been the 3rd-best QB
with an outstanding passer rating of 123.2 this season.
Sean McDermott has now been the
Bills head coach for the last eight seasons.
During his tenure in Buffalo, he has coached the Bills to 11 playoff
appearances with a record of 5-6. Under Sean,
they are 5-2 in home playoff games and 4-2 in the Wild Card Round. A statistic that I have come across that I find
intriguing is that when McDermott was the Panthers’ defensive coordinator, he
held a 7-5 record against Sean Payton who was the New Orleans Saints head coach
at the time. Buffalo fans are expecting
nothing less than a total route against the Broncos; however, they seemingly match
up very well with Buffalo, at least on paper.
Buffalo has more experience in the playoffs, certainly with some of the veteran
players on their roster. Denver has more
younger players and I think most of their locker room, including their veterans,
have never experienced a postseason game to this point in their careers.
BILLS
OFFENSE:
POINTS
PER GAME- 30.9 (2ND)
TOTAL
YARDS P/G- 359.1 (10TH)
RUSH
YARDS P/G- 131.2 (9TH)
PASS
YARDS P/G- 227.9 (9TH)
SACKS
ALLOWED- 14 (1ST)
BILLS
DEFENSE:
POINTS
PER GAME- 21.6 (11TH)
TOTAL
YARDS P/G- 341.5 (17TH)
RUSH
YARDS P/G- 115.5 (12TH)
PASS
YARDS P/G- 226.1 (24TH)
TOTAL
SACKS- 39 (18TH)
In conclusion, Denver leads the
league in sacks (63), though Buffalo also leads the league in allowing the
least sacks this season (14). If Buffalo’s
O-line can’t hold up against the Broncos that will cause major havoc in their
offensive game plan and could lead to a major upset for Bills mafia. Vance Joseph’s defense is ranked 3rd
against the run this season, but if they cannot stop James Cook and Allen then
it will be a long day for the orange crush.
According to the ESPN.com team win rate rankings Denver is better than
any other team playoff team among the categories of pass rush, run stop, pass
block, and run block. When comparing
both rookie Bo Nix and Josh Allen in their past 8 games the similarities are a
lot closer than people would imagine. Bo
has a completion % of 66.8, 240.5 pass ypg, 17-7 TD-INT, 96.6 passer rating,
and has thrown for more yards and touchdowns than Allen this year. Allen’s numbers: 63.1 completion %, 245.6
pass ypg, 14-5 TD-INT, and 96.1 passer rating.
Denver takes to the road in their first playoff game in over 8 years and
comes into this one as an +8.5 underdog.
Buffalo will play host to the Broncos on Sunday at 1 PM and as a Broncos
fan I will not say with certainty that they will get an upset, but I do think
they can cover that line as they have only lost by more than 7 points just once
this year.
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