WHO GETS THE EDGE

 

WHO GETS THE EDGE?

 

OWNERSHIP

PHI - JEFFREY LURIE HAS BEEN THE EAGLES OWNER SINCE 1994 AND HAS SEEN THEM REACH THE SUPER BOWL FOUR TIMES DURING HIS TENURE: 2005, 2018, 2023 & 2025

KC – THE HUNT FAMILY HAS OWNED THE CHIEFS SINCE THE TEAM WAS FOUNDED IN 1959, THEY HAVE REACHED THE SUPER BOWL SEVEN TIMES: 1967, 1970, 2020, 2021, 2023, 2024, & 2025

-         I GIVE THE CHIEFS THE EDGE HERE

 

 

HEAD COACH

        PHI – NICK SIRIANNI HAS GOTTEN TO THE SUPER BOWL TWICE IN TOTALITY AND IS 0-1 PENDING TONIGHT’S GAME: 2023 & 2025

            KC – ANDY REID HAS APPEARED IN FIVE SUPER BOWLS WITH THE CHIEFS & SIX IN HIS CAREER (ONE WITH PHILLY IN 2005)

-         THE EDGE GOES TO KC

 

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR

        PHI – KELLEN MOORE IS IN HIS FIRST SEASON AS THE EAGLES OC AND HAS BEEN AN OC WITH THREE TEAMS (DAL 2019-2022, LAC 2023, PHI 2024).  EAGLES HAD THE 8^TH BEST OFFENSE IN TOTAL YARDS THIS SEASON

            KC – MATT NAGY IS CURRENTLY IN HIS SECOND STINT AS THEIR OC AND IS IN HIS FOURTH SEASON IN THIS ROLE (2016-2017 & 2023-2024). CHIEFS HAD THE 17^TH RANKED OFFENSE

-         PHI HAS THE CLEAR EDGE

 

 

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR

        PHI – VIC FANGIO IS KNOWN FOR BEING ONE OF THE BEST DEFENSIVE-MINDED COACHES IN THE NFL.  HE HAS BEEN A DC FOR SEVEN TEAMS IN HIS NFL CAREER (CAR 95-98, IND 99-01, HOU 02-05, SF 11-14, CHI 15-18, MIA 2023, PHI 2024).  VIC HAS DONE AN INCREDIBLE JOB IN HIS FIRST SEASON AS THEIR DC AND HAS THEM RANKED #1 IN TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED (4,732, 278.4 YPG) AND 2^ND BEST IS POINTS (303, 17.8 PPG)

            KC- STEVE SPAGNOULO IS THE ONLY COORDINATOR IN NFL HISTORY WITH FOUR SUPER BOWL RINGS.  HE’S BEEN THE CHIEFS DC FOR SIX SEASONS AND HAS BEEN A DC FOUR TIMES IN HIS CAREER WITH THREE TEAMS: NYG 07-08, NO 2012, NYG 15-17, KC 2019-PRESENT).  SPAGS DEFENSE RANKED 9^TH IN TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED THIS SEASON (5,451, 320.6 YPG) & 4^TH IN SCORING DEFENSE (326, 19.2 PPG)

-         PEOPLE WOULD CERTAINLY ARGUE SPAGS IS BETTER, THOUGH I AM GIVING THE EDGE TO VIC FANGIO AND THE EAGLES WHO HAD TWO ROOKIE CORNERS NOMINATED FOR ROOKIE DPOTY

 

 

DEFENSIVE BACKS

 

PHI – LCB QUINYON MITCHELL (ROOKIE)

            RCB DARIUS SLAY JR.

            NB COOPER DEJEAN (ROOKIE)

            SS C.J. GARDNER-JOHNSON

            FS REED BLANKENSHIP

 

KC- LCB TRENT MCDUFFIE

         RCB JAYLEN WATSON

         NB CHAMARRI CONNER

         SS JUSTIN REID

        FS BRYAN COOK

-         EDGE GOES TO PHILLY BY A LONG SHOT

 

LINEBACKERS

            PHI - WLB NOLAN SMITH SR./BRANDON GRAHAM

                        LILB ZACK BAUN/JEREMIAH TROTTER JR.

                        RILB OREN BURKS

                        SLB JOSH SWEAT

 

            KC- WLB DRUE TRANQUILL

                      MLB NICK BOLTON

                       SLB LEO CHENAL/ CAM JONES

-         PHI HAS THE EDGE

 

DEFENSIVE LINE

 

            PHI – LDE MILTON WILLIAMS

                        NT JORDAN DAVIS

                        RDE JALEN CARTER

            KC – LDE GEORGE KARLAFTIS

                       LDT TERSHAWN WHARTON/ DERRICK NNADI

                      RDT CHRIS JONES

                      RDE MIKE DANNA

-         CHIRS JONES IS ONE OF THE BEST D-LINEMEN IN THE NFL TODAY, STILL THE EAGLES DL IS THE CREAM OF THE CROP SO PHILLY GETS THE EDGE

 

KICKER/SPECIAL TEAMS

            PHI – K JAKE ELLIOT

                        P BRADEN MANN

              PR/KR COOPER DEJEAN/ISAIAH RODGERS

           

            KC – K HARRISON BUTKER

                       P MATT ARAIZA

             PR/KR NIKKO REMIGIO

-         I AM GIVING THE SLIGHT EDGE TO KC HERE

 

OFFENSIVE LINE

        PHI – LT JORDAN MAILATA

                        LG LANDON DICKERSON

                        C  CAM JURGENS

                       RG MEKHI BECTON

                       RT LANE JOHNSON

 

            KC – LT JOE THUNEY

                      LG MIKE CALIENDO

                       C CREED HUMPHREY

                     RG TREY SMITH

                     RT JAWAAN TAYLOR

-          THE CHIEFS HAVE SOME DECENT GUYS UP FRONT, HOWEVER, PHILLY POSSESSES THE BIGGEST O-LINE IN THE LEAGUE WITH 2-3 POSSIBLE FUTURE HALL-OF-FAMERS UP FRONT.  PHILLY GETS THE EDGE!

 

TIGHT END/ WIDE OUTS

            PHI- TE DALLAS GOEDERT/ GRANT CALCATERRA

                     WRS A.J. BROWN

                                 DEVONTA SMITH

                                JAHAN DOTSON

            KC – TE TRAVIS KELCE

                     WRS DEANDRE HOPKINS/ XAVIER WORTHY

                                 HOLLYWOOD BROWN

                                 JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER

-         THOUGH I DO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT IN HIS CAREER A.J. BROWN IS THE BEST WIDEOUT PLAYING IN THIS GAME, THE CHIEFS HAVE THE BETTER ALL-AROUND PLETHORA OF OPTIONS.  KC GETS THE EDGE

 

RUNNING BACK

                          

            PHI – SAQUON BARKLEY

                        KENNETH GAINWELL

                        WILL SHIPLEY

           

            KC- KAREEM HUNT

                      ISIAH PACHECO

                     SAMAJE PERINE

-         KAREEM HUNT IS A VERY TALENTED RUNNING BACK.  SAQUON BARKLEY IS JUST IN A LEAGUE OF HIS OWN! THE OBVIOUS EDGE GOES TO PHILLY

 

QUARTERBACK

 

            PHI – JALEN HURTS

 

            KC - PATRICK MAHOMES

 

-         HURTS IS AN IMMENSELY TALENTED ATHLETE AND ONE OF THE MOST VERSATILE QBS IN THE NFL TODAY. 

-         PATRICK MAHOMES MEANWHILE IS CHASING HIS 4^TH LOMBARDI, 3^RD IN A ROW IF HE CAN PULL IT OFF

-         ITS PRETTY CLEAR THE EDGE GOES TO KC

 

IT IS HARD TO BET AGAINST ANY DYNASTY ESPECIALLY WHEN IT IS LED BY THE MAN THAT PEOPLE ARE CALLING THE NEW G.O.A.T, THOUGH I DO BELIEVE THAT BARKLEY HAS BEEN THE BEST PLAYER IN THE NFL THIS SEASON AND WILL BE ROOTING FOR THE EAGLES (SOLEY FOR THIS GAME) TO TAKE HOME THE LOMBARDI!

SUPER BOWL 59 STATISTICS TO KNOW

 

·       VIC FANGIO- LED DEFENSES ARE 0-8 ALL-TIME AGAINST PATRICK MAHOMES

 

·       MAHOMES IS 15-0 ALL-TIME WHEN PLAYING IN DOMES AND RETRACTABLE ROOFS

 

·       MAHOMES WINNING PERCENTAGE IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN ANY OTHER QB WHEN DOWN DOUBLE DIGITS IN ANY GAME

 

·       WHEN FACING DOUBLE-DIGIT DEFICITS TOM BRADY HELD A 6-8 RECORD, MAHOMES IS 5-2  

 

·       CHIEFS DC STEVE SPAGNUOLO HAS MORE SB RINGS (4) THAN ANY OTHER COORDINATOR IN NFL HISTORY

 

·       16 OF THE LAST 20 SB WINNERS WERE THE AWAY TEAMS; NFL ALTERNATES THE AWAY TEAM EVERY YEAR REGARDLESS OF TEAM WIN % (KC IS THE AWAY TEAM THIS YEAR)

 

·       MAHOMES CAREER RECORD INCLUDING PLAYOFFS- 106-26

 

·       JALEN HURTS CAREER RECORD INCLUDING PLAYOFFS- 54-30-1

 

·       JALEN HURTS IS THE QUICKEST QB TO MAKE IT BACK TO HIS 2^ND SUPER BOWL AFTER A SB LOSS SINCE DENVER’S QB JOHN ELWAY IN 1987 & 1988

 

·       HURTS IS ALSO THE YOUNGEST QB IN THE SB ERA TO HAVE APPEARED IN TWO SUPER BOWLS- 26 YEARS OLD (BEN ROETHLISBERGER WAS ALSO 26, HURTS IS 5 MONTHS YOUNGER THAN BEN WAS IN HIS 2^ND SB)

 

·       PHILLY’S AVERAGE O-LINEMAN IS 6’6” 338 LBS (BIGGEST IN THE NFL)

 

·       KANSAS CITY’S AVERAGE DT IS 6’2”, DE 6’6”

 

·       PFF RANKS EAGLES LEFT TACKLE JORDAN MIALATA THE BEST RUN BLOCKER & BEST O-LINEMAN IN THE NFL THIS SEASON

 

·       PHILLY’S SAQUON BARKLEY ENDED THE REGULAR SEASON AS THE NFL’S LEADING RUSHER (2005 YARDS)

 

·       BARKLEY IS ONE OF ONLY TWO PLAYERS IN NFL HISTORY TO HAVE 2,000 + SCRIMMAGE YARDS WITH MULTIPLE TEAMS (DERRICK HENRY IS THE OTHER)

 

·       BARKLEY WON THE AP OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR AND THE JIM BROWN AWARD (JIM BROWN AWARD IS FOR THE MOST RUSHING YDS IN A SEASON)

 

·       EAGLES DT JALEN CARTER HAS 34 QB PRESSURES (2^ND MOST AMONG DEFENSIVE TACKLES THIS SEASON INCLUDING PLAYOFFS)

 

·       PATRICK MAHOMES NEEDS ONLY 85 PASSING YARDS TO MOVE FROM 5^TH TO 2^ND PLACE IN MOST PASSING YARDS IN SUPER BOWL HISTORY (BRADY LEADS ALL QBS WITH 3,039 & KURT WARNER IS SECOND WITH 1,156 YDS) 

 

·       IF KC WINS, THEY WILL BECOME THE FIRST TEAM TO WIN THREE CONSECUTIVE SB TITLES SINCE THE SUPER BOWL ERA BEGAN; THE PACKERS WON THREE STRAIGHT TITLES FROM 1966-1968, 1 NFL CHAMPIONSHIP, AND 2 SUPER BOWLS (SB 1 WAS IN 1967)     

 

 

 

 

SUPERBOWL TRENDS THROUGHOUT NFL HISTORY

 

AFC SB WINS                                     NFC SB WINS

27 TITLES                                                                                27 TITLES

 

 

AFC WEST                                                                              NFC EAST

10 WINS                                                                                       13 WINS

 

 

KC CHIEFS                                                                         PHI EAGLES

4 WINS                                                                                             1 WIN

4-2 SB RECORD                                                            1-3 SB RECORD

 

 

COMBINED SCORE TOTAL OF ALL SB GAMES PLAYED PER TEAM

KC                                                                                                         PHI

105 = 21 PPG                                                                    107 = 26.75 PPG

  

COMBINED TOTAL YARDS OF ALL SB GMS PLAYED PER TEAM

KC                                                                                                         PHI

342.33 YPG                                                                                   421 YPG

THIS YEAR AVERAGE YARDS & POINTS PER GAME REG. SEASON

KC                                                                                                        PHI

 327.6 YPG (17^TH)                                                                   367.2 (8^TH)

   22.6 PPG (15^TH)                                                                     27.2 (7^TH)

 

 

 

     AVERAGE YARDS & POINTS PER GAME POSTSEASON

(OUT OF 14 TEAMS)

KC                                                                                                       PHI

  290 YPG (9^TH)                                                                     366.3 (6^TH)

27.5 PPG (5^TH)                                                                   35 PPG (1^ST)

A RUNNING BACK AWAY

                The Denver Broncos have just completed their second season under Sean Payton, one of the best offensive-minded coaches in the NFL today.  During his first two seasons as the Broncos head coach, they’ve recorded eighteen wins and sixteen losses, plus he took the Broncos back to the playoffs for the first time since they won their last Super Bowl (2015-2016).  In only one year Payton, alongside the Broncos' offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, improved their offensive output across the board.  Last season, the Broncos ranked 26th in total yards per game (298.4); this season, they upgraded their position to 19th (324.6).  The offense managed to split the difference in their points per game ranking going from 20th (21.0) last season to 10th place (25.0) this year.   There is no doubt the entire outlook of the Broncos offense has already come a long way in just one year.  The story of their season was about how a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix) threw for 29 TDs, the 2nd most passing TDs by a rookie in NFL history (Justin Herbert had 31 in 2020).

                While the Broncos were able to outproduce both their passing (24th in 2023, 20th in 2024) and rushing yard (18th in 2023, 16th in 2024) totals this season, the offense still lacks something important.  They could and certainly should upgrade their tight-end position through the draft or free agency, though the top priority this offseason needs to be the running back position.  What if I told you the Denver Broncos have not had a thousand-yard rusher in the past six years?  They currently hold the fifth-longest streak of this nature.    Did you know the last time the Broncos drafted a running back who accomplished this milestone was in 2009? (Knowshon Moreno) Crazy right?  That’s the year I graduated high school!  They have only had nine rushers achieve this feat since Terrell Davis’s last thousand-yard season, (three of them ran for 1,000+ yards twice, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, and Phillip Lindsay).   Five of these players were drafted by Denver, two went undrafted, and the other two were free-agent signings.

                This is why I have the certitude that Denver needs to make a major impact this upcoming year by drafting a highly talented running back.  Though not just any runner, I am talking about a guy who fell just twenty-seven yards short of breaking Barry Sanders’ all-time NCAA single-season rushing record, Boise State’s own Ashton Jeanty (2,601 yards).  I’m tremendously confident through watching Ashton Jeanty the past three seasons that he would take Sean Payton’s offense to a whole new level, even as a rookie!  The Broncos are running back away from becoming a great team yet again and possess the top offensive line in the league according to profootballnetwork.com.  This year they made the first round of the playoffs though, with a runner like Jeanty, the mind of Payton plus an immensely talented quarterback in Bo Nix, I firmly believe they can return to a Conference Championship or even the Super Bowl.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP- WASHINGTON @ PHILLY- DIVISIONAL SHOWDOWN

 

           Who would’ve ever thought that any sports franchise could recreate their entire organization from top to bottom in one offseason and end up one of four teams remaining come the season’s end?  Historically, the Washington Commanders have pulled off the improbable, making what was seemingly impossible, possible!  The Commanders have been the laughingstock of the National Football League plenty of times while under the previous ownership of Dan Snyder.  At this exact time just a year ago the Commanders owned the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.  Then a star was born, rookie Jayden Daniels has had the most impressive rookie season of any QB in NFL history.  The Philadelphia Eagles are no strangers to the NFC Championship as they’ve been here plenty of times in franchise history.  Philly has played in eight Conference Championship games all time, winning 50% of those games, with the last win coming from their current regime under Nick Sirianni.  Statmuse.com shows that in the Eagles Championship wins they have only allowed ten or fewer points, though when they’ve ceded at least fourteen or more points to the opposing offense they have lost those games.

            Normally a Conference Championship isn’t a game played with two opponents in the same division.  It is quite a rarity and will be the first time since 1986, overall, it will be just the 20^th time in NFL history that it has happened.  This deeply rooted rivalry goes way back before Washington’s team even played in Washington. To further elaborate, the football team that now plays its home games in Washington originally started in Boston as the Boston Braves in 1932.  It wasn’t until 1937 that the organization changed hands to become the Washington Redskins, then of course changing the name of the team twice more in the past decade or so.  Washington owns the series record 90-85-5 over Philly, having faced each other only once in the postseason.  When they did meet in the playoffs it was in the Wild Card round, on January 5^th, 1991, with the win going to the Redskins 20-6.  During this long historic feud, Washington had come out on top 45 times in Philly (twice as the Boston Braves) while ending in a tie twice when playing in Philadelphia.  Their only bout in the postseason is included in their 45 wins in The City of Brotherly Love.

            With four teams remaining, they all have unique claims to their cultured past of how their franchise potentially winning the Lombardi would create such a huge meaningful story.  Buffalos would be about how they have not made it to the big game since the early 1990s, to the Chiefs potentially becoming the only team to hoist the trophy three straight years.  Though, the most impressive would certainly be the story of the Washington Commanders.  I mean it is very compelling, groundbreaking, and so unbelievable because we’ve never seen this before in any professional sport!  A rookie quarterback, a first-year owner, a new general manager and to top it all off the first year of the Dan Quinn era.  It would be so appealing that it would probably pique the interest of non-football fans, and even non-sports fans would find it interesting.  The ultimate underdog story would garner so much interest that I am confident they could make millions at the box office about such a feat.  The Eagles story would be headlined by a franchise that won their second Super Bowl after bringing in a running back in the offseason who almost made NFL history in erasing an all-time great player's single-season rushing record.  It’s still intriguing but more so for Saquon Barkley overcoming a terrible team's lackluster personnel and the General Manager's awful decisions to start an incredible career that led him into the arms of his previous team's nemesis.

            This series has had many long winning streaks between these teams, the Birds have experienced the longest losing streak of 11 straight from 1937-1942, though they have also had two 8-game win streaks from 1947-1950 and then again from 1992-1996.  With five games ending in ties, the Eagles had also been through an incredibly rough patch when they played Washington 15 consecutive times without a single win from 1967-1974 (3 tied games along with 12 losses before a win).  If you don’t believe me, go ahead and check for yourself!  Now I understand these stats have no bearing on the game coming up on Sunday afternoon plus the Eagles did already beat the Commanders (26-18) at home in week 11 while also posting a 9-1 record when playing on Lincoln Financial Field this season.  The Eagles have also taken down Washington football teams 44 times in totality when playing in their home stadium.  They also have a few things in their favor regardless of the availability of both tight end Dallas Goedert and center Cam Jurgens come Sunday.  They possess the number one scoring defense, a top-ten run defense, and the best pass defense in the league.  They also have a beast on their defensive line that you can argue a case for being one of the best DTs in the league this season, well at least in the postseason anyway.  Jalen Carter was a major disrupter in the game against the Rams last week and if they are going to beat Washington’s high-powered offense Carter and the rest of the linemen will have to make Jayden Daniels very uncomfortable in the pocket this week to get him off his game.  

            Offensively, Kellen Moore needs to stick to the same game plan that has had the Birds soaring high all year, running the rock and getting the ball into the hands of Barkley in as many creative ways as possible.  Quinn’s defense has come a long way from week one until now, they have the 16th-ranked defense in total yards allowed and the 18th-ranked scoring defense.  It may not sound great, but those rankings are based on the averages throughout the season.  However, don’t be fooled by these rankings and think you can just beat the Commanders by passing the ball as they are a top-five pass defense and have been the best part of Joe Whitt Jr.’s unit.  This is why beating the Commanders will be pivotal for Barkley to be the key to Philly’s success.  The other part of this is for the Eagles' defense to make sure they don’t allow the Commanders to win the time of possession battle and get out to a double-digit lead, which could become deadly for their chances to win since they have the second worst passing defense in the league this year.  Jalen Hurts has thrown 225 or more yards in just six games this season while Daniels has had ten games of such while also rushing for 80 or more yards in four games. (Hurts had 1 game with 80 plus rushing yards).

            In conclusion, while this will be the 20^th time two divisional adversaries compete in the Conference Championship game, the home team has the edge 14-5 in the last 19 games.  It is also worth noting that Washington holds a 5-1 record in NFC Championships all-time, 2-1 when facing an NFC East opponent (beat Dallas twice in 1972 & 1983, lost to New York in 1987), with their only loss coming on the road.  Philly has a 4-2 record when playing these games at home and has won their only division matchup in this round of the postseason (beat Dallas in 1981).  Leading up to the game on Sunday at 3 PM, the Commanders are a +6.5 underdogs on the road for the third consecutive week as the NFC’s six-seeded team.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP – ALLEN VS. MAHOMES PT. IV

                This is hardly unfamiliar territory for these two teams. This matchup, which every NFL fan has either dreamt of or dreaded, will become the deciding game for one franchise's chance to play at the pinnacle of the sport.  These Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes playoff games are now becoming a regularity many fans may look forward to, bringing a classic Brady vs. Manning-esque back to the NFL.  This game will be the fourth time in five years that these two star quarterbacks will face off in the postseason.  Although this has happened almost routinely, this will only be the second time they’ve squared off in the AFC Championship.  The first time they played each other in the Conference Round of the Playoffs the outcome was much like most of the games when these two goliaths clash.  A great deal of offense accompanied by plenty of points.

               Patrick Mahomes is already widely known as a G.O.A.T., yet he is only in his eighth season as a pro.  We are only two years removed from Tom Brady’s illustrious and rare career, though it seems that the face of the NFL isn’t even close to suffering from its loss.  What Mahomes has been able to do in just seven seasons as the Kansas City Chiefs starter is unlike anything we’ve ever seen in all sports history.  This Sunday evening the Chiefs QB will start in his seventh AFC Championship tying Joe Montana for the second most starts of any quarterback in a Championship game.  This is especially impressive as it took Montana fifteen or fourteen and a half seasons (Montana didn’t become the Niners starter until halfway through his second season) to achieve what Mahomes has already done in half the amount of time.  Even Tom Brady who played in fourteen (most all-time) Conference Championship games didn’t reach such a feat until his twelfth year into his career.  Calling the Kansas City Chiefs a dynasty is only fair as the past few NFL seasons concluded with Andy Reid’s team not just winning two consecutively but also representing the American Football Conference in the last five out of six Super Bowls.

                Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was not supposed to be here.  In many people's eyes, Allen would never become an elite QB1.  He knew deep down that he’d always be a professional athlete, but early on Allen played multiple sports.  The quarterback was also his high school's leading scorer on the basketball team plus a pitcher for the baseball team and could throw 90 mph fastballs.  It was Allens' determination that got him every step of the way.  His story as a football player didn’t start until his cousin's husband (a football assistant coach for Reedley College in 2014) assumably helped him get a chance as the school's starting quarterback.  Within his first season at Reedley Allen proved to be a more than competent starter plus he had grown two inches in height while also gaining thirty pounds.  After a great year, he figured his gameplay would gain some noise enabling cumulative offers from FBS colleges, but to no avail.

                Then after multiple failed attempts at his goal of getting into a Division I program, Josh wound up on Wyoming's radar garnering himself a scholarship there.  He ended up starting two seasons at Wyoming in three years then declared for the NFL draft upon the completion of the 2017 season.  Though Josh was drafted by the Buffalo Bills and was believed to be their eventual starting QB, a lot of criticism came with the start of his career in Orchard Park, New York.  The star passer was seemingly more of just a runner of the ball, frequently turning the ball over by throwing 21 Interceptions to just 30 touchdowns over his first two years in Buffalo.  However, the California native changed that exact narrative proving to the entire world that he is an elite passer just as much as a winning quarterback, taking Buffalo to back-to-back playoff appearances in his first three seasons as a pro.  Much like Mahomes, Allen has become a recurring theme in the postseason, making it there every year since his second season.  He holds a current playoff record of 7-5 and has propelled the Bills to at least the Divisional Round five straight years. 

            This Mahomes-Allen storied rivalry stretches back to October 19th of the 2020 season, the sole time Kansas City had beaten Buffalo in the regular season during the Mahomes era.  Mahomes may have an undefeated playoff record against the Bills with Josh Allen under center (Mahomes 3-0 vs. Allen), but the roles have been reversed when they play one another from September to early January (Allen 4-1 vs. Mahomes).  This may not seem like a popular thing to say because of how their playoff matchups have heavily favored the Chiefs, peculiarly with one team attempting a first-ever three-peat title defense, though with a total of eight meetings between this exact rivalry, this game is going to be the tiebreaker.  In an ironic twist, perhaps we should dive back into the NFL history books to look at the 1990-1993 playoffs.  These were the years that the Buffalo Bills went to four straight Super Bowls, losing all four.  Why bring this up?   To optimistically predict that this, being the fourth time, the Bills and Chiefs superstar quarterbacks playing each other could potentially reverse Bills Mafia's fortunes from their historic four-year letdown.  Will the fourth time be the charm and end Buffalo’s curse of their quad deficiencies?

            Sunday's game should be more of an evenly matched battle than you may think.  The offensive struggles for KC could fare well for Buffalo if Joe Brady’s offense gets off to a great start, while the Bills defense has also had their difficulties this season.  However, Bobby Babich (Buffalo’s DC) has had some starters return to the lineup which has certainly helped them in the past couple of weeks regain cohesiveness in their unit.  Steve Spagnuolo is also coaching a good defense as well.  The Chiefs have had one of the strongest defenses in all of football this year and will be ready for the task ahead plus they have become accustomed to playing Josh Allen over the last four seasons.  The best way for Buffalo to dissect the Spagnuolo-coached unit would be for Allen to utilize his tight ends early and often.  Matt Nagy should be pushing Mahomes to try to roll out of the pocket and force the ball to the outside weapons with a full complement of healthy receivers at his disposal now that Juju Smith-Schuster and Hollywood Brown are back in the lineup.  Another reason they should probably consider bootlegs and rollout packages is to cater to the inadequacies of his offensive tackles.  This could be a massive development for their offense in addition to the emergence of the rookie wideout Xavier Worthy alongside the obvious superstars in Kelce and Hopkins.  Bills will walk into Arrowhead Stadium as +1.5 underdogs on Sunday at 6:30 PM.

GREEN BAY VS. PHILLY – HURTS CITY OF LOVE

 

         The 2024 NFL season started with a Packers vs. Eagles game, and for one of these two teams, it will come full circle in ending with this game.  Green Bay has had a great season winning 11 games which in most divisions would probably win you the division title and give you a home game in the playoffs.  However, not in the NFC North, the Packers unfortunately must compete with the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions who both won over 13 games this season.  Philadelphia ended the regular season 14-3 and beat the Green Bay Packers in week one in Sao Paolo, Brazil.  Green Bay leads the all-time series between these franchises 28-19, while the Eagles have won 3 of the last 4 matchups of the series.

           

            The Packers' head coach Matt LaFleur has been with Green Bay since 2019.  Since LaFleur’s arrival, he has coached against the Eagles four times, only successfully beating them once.  Under LaFleur, the Packers have a 3-4 record in the postseason, 1-2 on the road, and have lost their only game in Philadelphia since LaFleur has been there.  Quarterback Jordan Love comes into this game banged up with an elbow injury along with now relief from numbness in his throwing hand.  Love is a full go for tomorrow afternoon, however, his top threat on the outside Christian Watson is out.  Jordan has played the Eagles twice, one of which was in Philadelphia, and has yet to come away triumphant.  During his two games against the Birds, he’s played very well, throwing for 373 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, and has a QBR of 96.4.  Packers’ leading rusher Josh Jacobs was one of the best runners in the league this season, rushing for over 1,300 yards (6^th among all running backs) and just shy of 1,700 total yards from scrimmage (5^th most league-wide).  Jacobs scored a total of 15 touchdowns (4^th), was second in broken tackles (35), and is second-best to only Derrick Henry in yards after contact (737 yards) this year.

            Green Bay is one of the premier organizations in all of football with a prestigious history.  This franchise has won the most Championships in the NFL and boasts a 37-26 all-time playoff record.  Packer Nation is no stranger to matching up against Philly in their playoff history as they’ve met 3 times with Green Bay winning the last one in the City of Brotherly Love (2010, Packers 21 @ Eagles 16).  I’ve said a lot about the offense, but you know the old saying, “Defense wins championships” and Jeff Hafley, the defensive coordinator for the Pack has his unit as the 6^th best scoring defense.  They are ceding 19.9 pts per game this season, allowing the 5^th least yards per game, and rank as the 6^th best defense against the run.  Green Bay’s pass-rush-win-rate (35% - 26^th) may not have the greatest matchup against Philly’s pass-block-win-rate (67%- 6^th), though they do possess the 8^th ranked defensive unit in sacks (45).

 

PACKERS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 27.1 (8^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 370.5 (5^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 146.8 (5^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 223.6 (12^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 22 (2^ND)

 

PACKERS DEFENS

POINTS PER GAME- 19.9 (6^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 314.5 (5^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 99.4 (7^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 215.2 (13^TH)

TOTAL SACKS- 45 (8^TH)

 

            Philadelphia comes into this game riding high as winners of their last seven at home.  The Birds scored an average of 26.3 points per game during that streak.  Jalen Hurts just cleared the concussion protocol this past Wednesday after missing the past two weeks of all football activity.  Those who think Hurts may be rusty from missing so much time could wind up looking silly on Sunday afternoon.  Hurts is one of the best versatile quarterbacks the league has to offer and is the engine that makes this Eagles offense work.  During his NFL career, the QB has competed against the Packers three times, winning two of those matchups.  In his games against them, he has totaled 540 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and has a 84.3 QBR.  When these teams last met in September Jalen threw for 278 yards, 2 TDs, and had 2 INTs along with a fumble.  Their week one game proved to be the Eagles' worst this season in turnovers as they gave the ball away three times.

            The Eagles have plenty of weapons at their quarterback's disposal such as one of the top wideout combos in the league led by A.J. Brown, plus a godsend running back in Saquon Barkley.  The latter, Saquon Barkley just had one of the best seasons of any player in league history.  Barkley became only the fourth rusher in NFL history to total 2,000 or more scrimmage yards in a season with multiple teams after accumulating 2,283 yards in his first year with Philadelphia. (Eric Dickerson, Marshall Faulk, and Christian McCaffrey also accomplished this) He also owns a 3-1 record over the Packers in his career and has piled up 348 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 11 catches for 106 receiving yards when going against them.  During Nick Sirianni’s tenure as Philly’s coach, they are 2-3 in the postseason but on the bright side, the Eagles are also 2-0 when hosting playoff games.

EAGLES OFFENSE:

TOTAL POINTS P/G- 27.2 (7^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 367.2 (8^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 179.3 (2^ND)

PASS YARDS P/G- 187.2 (29^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 45 (20^TH)

 

EAGLES DEFENSE:

TOTAL POINTS P/G- 17.8 (2^ND)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 278.4 (1^ST)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 104.2 (10^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 174.2 (1^ST)

TOTAL SACKS- 41 (T-13^TH)

 

            In conclusion, this is a rematch of the week one international game in which the Eagles won 34-29.  A.J. Brown had a huge day gathering 5 receptions for 119 and a TD in addition to Saquon Barkley’s 3 TDs.  Sirianni owns a 2-0 record against Matt LaFleur which boasts well for Philly, but on the other hand as a franchise, they hold an all-time playoff record of 25-26.  Packers’ passer Jordan Love didn’t have a bad game in week one before his injury as he threw 2 TDs on 260 yards with 1 INT, while his backfield mate Josh Jacobs accounted for over 100 total yards.  Winning on the road in the opening round of the playoffs is nothing new to the Packers, they took down the Dallas Cowboys as the 7^th seed last year before falling victim to a better San Fransico 49ers team in the divisional round.  My expectation for this matchup is that the more productive team in the ground game should come away with the win.  When attacking the Eagles in the passing game, the Packers must target tight end Tucker Kraft, especially without top wideout Christian Watson.  Fangio’s defense is the best against the pass with one of the most talented groups of defensive backs in the league.  Green Bay is +4.5 underdogs though I would take my chances laying the points with the strong defense along with the prowess of the Eagles running game.

WILD CARD ROUND - DENVER BRONCOS VS. BUFFALO BILLS

 

            Don’t look now but the Denver Broncos are in the playoffs for the first time since hoisting their third Lombardi Trophy in 2015.  The Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix outplayed all expectations along with all other rookie quarterbacks, not named Jayden Daniels.  Credit to Nix, though a lot of his success was because of one of the best offensive-minded coaches the NFL has seen in head coach Sean Payton.  This Sunday afternoon Payton will be coaching on the opposite sideline of an old foe Sean McDermott, who coached against Payton twice a year for six years (2011-2016) when he was the Carolina Panthers defensive coordinator.  McDermott holds a 3-1 record when coaching against the Denver Broncos, while Sean Payton is 3-1 all-time against the Buffalo Bills.  Payton is only in his second season as the Broncos coach, though he did square off against McDermott's squad last year, dramatically coming away with the win in Buffalo on a Monday Night game.

 

            The Denver Broncos have been a solid team this year.  They beat the teams they were expected to beat, yet lost to the top-tier teams, leaving a lot to be desired.  They played five playoff teams in the regular season this year and beat two of them, defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in week 3 (26-7), then they beat the Kansas City Chiefs backups last week at home 38-0.  The Broncos' point differential in losses against playoff opponents that are not named the Baltimore Ravens this season is -23 points.  Keep in mind both the Chiefs and the Chargers are also in the postseason; Denver plays both teams twice a year thus the Broncos played 7 games against top-tier teams.  This means they have had an average point differential of just -5.75 in their 4 losses to the Steelers, Chiefs, and Chargers.

            Sean Payton comes into this matchup as a 4-1 underdog against the spread in his career in the postseason for all the bettors out there.  The Broncos have a record of 3-2 when playing against teams in the east this season and are one of only two teams that have been able to beat the Bills in Buffalo in the last calendar year.  Buffalo has been perfect at home this season but lost to the Chiefs at home in the playoffs last year along with losing to the Broncos at home in the regular season on the night when the clip of the Bills' old OC Ken Dorsey went viral after becoming irate and throwing his clipboard amongst other things in the press box.  That night last season with little to no offense that was provided by Broncos ex-QB Russell Wilson, and a less impressive defense somehow came away with a 24-22 victory on a Monday Night.  In Denver’s history, they have not matched up all that well against the Bills, losing 23 games and winning 17.  The two teams have only played once in the playoffs, the Bills winning in the 1992 AFC Championship game.  Ironically of those 17 wins the Broncos have had against them, 12 of them came in Buffalo. (Denver has won 44.4% of the games they’ve played in Buffalo)

 

BRONCOS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 25.0 (10^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 324.6 (19^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 112.6 (16^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 212.4 (20^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 24 (3^RD)

 

BRONCOS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 18.3 (3^RD)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 317.1 (7^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 96.4 (3^RD)

PASS YARDS P/G- 220.7 (19^TH)

TOTAL SACKS- 63 (1^ST)

 

            Buffalo seems to be a team primed to make a deep postseason run this season.  They beat the Kansas City Chiefs this season, are undefeated at home, and only suffered one major loss this season (35-10 against Baltimore).  Josh Allen looks to be the most likely player to win the MVP this season and has had the most impressive season in his career.  Only five QBs have ever thrown for 20 + touchdowns while also rushing for 10 or more in the same season, Allen has now accomplished this feat twice in his career.  Think about it, the man placed 7^th among QBs with 28 air touchdowns, yet he also finished the regular season ranked 9^th in rushing TDs.  Josh Allen is an unbelievable all-around athlete, he accounted for the 4^th most touchdowns (41) this season behind only Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Baker Mayfield.  Another notable mention would be that when facing blitzes Allen has been the 3^rd-best QB with an outstanding passer rating of 123.2 this season.

            Sean McDermott has now been the Bills head coach for the last eight seasons.  During his tenure in Buffalo, he has coached the Bills to 11 playoff appearances with a record of 5-6.  Under Sean, they are 5-2 in home playoff games and 4-2 in the Wild Card Round.  A statistic that I have come across that I find intriguing is that when McDermott was the Panthers’ defensive coordinator, he held a 7-5 record against Sean Payton who was the New Orleans Saints head coach at the time.  Buffalo fans are expecting nothing less than a total route against the Broncos; however, they seemingly match up very well with Buffalo, at least on paper.  Buffalo has more experience in the playoffs, certainly with some of the veteran players on their roster.  Denver has more younger players and I think most of their locker room, including their veterans, have never experienced a postseason game to this point in their careers.

 

BILLS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 30.9 (2^ND)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 359.1 (10^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 131.2 (9^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 227.9 (9^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 14 (1^ST)

 

BILLS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 21.6 (11^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 341.5 (17^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 115.5 (12^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 226.1 (24^TH)

TOTAL SACKS- 39 (18^TH)

 

            In conclusion, Denver leads the league in sacks (63), though Buffalo also leads the league in allowing the least sacks this season (14).  If Buffalo’s O-line can’t hold up against the Broncos that will cause major havoc in their offensive game plan and could lead to a major upset for Bills mafia.  Vance Joseph’s defense is ranked 3^rd against the run this season, but if they cannot stop James Cook and Allen then it will be a long day for the orange crush.  According to the ESPN.com team win rate rankings Denver is better than any other team playoff team among the categories of pass rush, run stop, pass block, and run block.  When comparing both rookie Bo Nix and Josh Allen in their past 8 games the similarities are a lot closer than people would imagine.  Bo has a completion % of 66.8, 240.5 pass ypg, 17-7 TD-INT, 96.6 passer rating, and has thrown for more yards and touchdowns than Allen this year.  Allen’s numbers: 63.1 completion %, 245.6 pass ypg, 14-5 TD-INT, and 96.1 passer rating.  Denver takes to the road in their first playoff game in over 8 years and comes into this one as an +8.5 underdog.  Buffalo will play host to the Broncos on Sunday at 1 PM and as a Broncos fan I will not say with certainty that they will get an upset, but I do think they can cover that line as they have only lost by more than 7 points just once this year.