PHILLY @ WASHINGTON – QUINN & IN FOR COMMANDERS

 

                The NFC playoff picture is still fully loaded with only two weeks left in the regular season. Usually, this would have been the AFC’s situation in years past, but this year, as of the start of week 16, the NFC still has six teams on the bubble. Green Bay seems likely safe as the sixth seed, though Washington, which currently holds seventh place, should be worried.  Under the 9-5 Commanders there are still five teams licking their chops awaiting an opportunity in hopes that Washington will accrue a few more losses, allowing one of them to jump into a playoff spot.  From the body of work the Commanders have accomplished this season I believe it is a rather easy assumption to say they will make the playoffs and seal up the final spot for the NFC.  The only three teams currently on the outside looking in that I think could still possibly make it in would be the Seahawks, Falcons, or Cardinals, however, I could only see that if they were to overtake the leaders of their divisions.             

 

                The Philadelphia Eagles are firmly placed in the discussions as one of the NFL’s top five teams.  They are presently riding a ten-game win streak, coming off a heck of a performance in which they exploded for over 400 yards of offense on the 9th-ranked defense running 77 plays.  Philly beat the Commanders at home in week 10 when they ran their way to a victory (228 yards) over one of the worst run defenses in the league.  This time shouldn’t be much different as they still pose the best-rushing offense (186.2 yards) alongside the league-leading rusher Saquon Barkley (1,688 yards).  Nick Sirianni has been constantly proving doubters wrong all year long.  He has kept the Eagles winning games people said they couldn’t, held the team together when the media was trying to break up a coach and his QB, and kept the locker room calm and level-headed when one of their players had misspoken to the media, prevailing through it all.  Barkley has also proven a whole lot of doubters wrong as well.  Barkley looks likely to surpass 2,000 rushing yards within the next two games and has been the biggest piece to the puzzle for their success this season.  Jalen Hurts hasn’t been too shabby himself and leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 14 while also maintaining the 5^th best passer rating (104.5).  Philly boasts one of the top O-lines this year in both pass and run protection.  Predominantly known as a run-first offense though don’t get it twisted because Hurts can beat you with his arm if push comes to shove.  Philly still employs a top receiver duo in Smith and Brown plus they have one of the best-kept secrets from the tight end position in Dallas Goedert, when healthy.  To repeat the sentiments of my previous article on the Steelers, and Ravens game, this Philadelphia Eagles defense is also a very big part of why the Eagles are continuing their great success and momentum that has provided them with a ten-game win streak.  Vic Fangio is an architect at designing supreme defenses leaguewide.  It leaves one to ponder how it didn’t work out for the Miami Dolphins with coach Fangio.  My thoughts are that some of the veteran players just didn’t understand his coaching methods or maybe they hadn’t been exposed to an old-school coach’s beliefs in how to turn around a unit and make it a great one.  I don’t exactly know, but what I do know is as a Broncos fan I saw Denver’s defense become the best in the league with a bunch of young guys outside of Von Miller and Justin Simmons.  The man just knows how to bring the best out of players, and it shows! 

 

EAGLES OFFENSE:

POINTS P/G- 26.4 (8^TH)

TOT YARDS P/G- 373.2 (6^TH)

 RUSH YARDS P/G- 186.2 (1^ST)

PASS YARDS P/G- 187.0 (28^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 39 (22^ND)

 

EAGLES DEFENSE:

POINTS P/G- 17.6 (1^ST)

TOT YARDS P/G- 275.6 (1^ST)

RUSH YARDS P/G-102.2 (7^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 173.4 (1^ST)

TOTAL SACKS- 39 (T-9^TH)

 

                The Washington Commanders have been very impressive this season.  They have accomplished the unthinkable within one season after performing as a bottom-barrel team for the past handful of seasons.  What their first-year head coach Dan Quinn has done for Washington has not gone unnoticed.  They drafted a rookie QB, who was thought to be the second or third-best of his draft class, and with the help of the coaching staff in addition to Jayden Daniels’ pure athleticism and abilities has turned into one of the best quarterbacks in the league.  Let's not take that for granted or sweep under the bed.  Jayden and the Commanders have been one of the biggest headlines of this NFL season, if you don’t know you better ask somebody!  Not to sound like a broken record but Daniels has broken both franchise and NFL rookie records this year and may continue to do that throughout his career.  Kliff Kingsbury may be in the discussion for head coaching jobs as soon as next season.  Dan Quinn, a defensive-minded coach, has helped his DC Joe Whitt Jr. by turning this defense around throughout the season.  They were at the back end of every statistical category to start the season yet have steadily brought them towards the front of the list.  With brand new ownership along with a new General Manager, the Commanders brought a lot of veteran talents into their locker room to help bring along the youngsters with both their experience and guidance.  Bobby Wagner has been a monumental part of what Quinn wants his defense to look like, hard-working smart players, who will lay it all out on the line for their teammates every single week.  Frankie Luvu, Dante Fowler Jr., and Marshon Lattimore are all the epitome of the type of players that Dan Quinn wants on his team.  I have no doubts that this team is going to wind up being a frequent playoff team for the foreseeable future with the player personnel alongside the coaching staff that they have in the building.

                Kliff Kingsbury has also had a lot to do with this team's good fortunes.  If they can keep him in Washington, then they will be a dominant scary offense that nobody will want to play.  Just this season as a rookie Daniels has been amazing in his rapport with star wideout Terry McLaurin.  One of the best moves they had made in the off-season was signing seasoned tight end Zach Ertz.  Ertz has been one of Jayden's main go-to targets outside of scary Terry.  Adam Peters also got a deal done with one of the better running backs of the last 5 seasons, signing ex-Charger Austin Ekeler.  They brought in more experience upfront to bolster their line while also bringing back receiver Jamison Crowder for his third stint in Washington.  They even drafted rookie Luke McCaffrey, which I have a feeling will wind up as another big playmaker for them in the next few seasons.  So go ahead and count them out if you want to but they are ascending at the right time with the Giants and Cowboys plummeting.  The NFC may be the Eagles' division right now, but it is big enough for both teams to make the playoffs for years to come.  Technically Washington has not yet clinched a playoff berth, however, with a win tomorrow afternoon, they can pretty much lock up the 7^th spot.  Full disclosure, they would also need a little help in addition to a victory over Philly.  They would also need the Seahawks to lose to prevent one from overtaking their wildcard while also needing the Falcons to get a loss for the same reason.  I don’t think that either of those teams will realistically take the Commanders' spot but instead could potentially wind up winning their respective divisions.  With that said, it was reported earlier this morning that the Atlanta Falcons are considering releasing quarterback Kirk Cousins, so I don’t believe that the rookie Penix Jr. will be able to win out and overtake the Buccaneers as the winners of the NFC South.  That’s one less thing the Commanders will need to worry about.

 

COMMANDERS OFFENSE:

POINTS P/G- 28.3 (6^TH)

TOT YARDS P/G- 373.9 (5^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 155.5 (3^RD)

PASS YARDS P/G- 218.4 (16^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 38 (21^ST)

 

COMMANDERS DEFENSE:

POINTS P/G- 22.5 (16^TH)

TOT YARDS P/G- 321.8 (11^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 132.1 (25^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 189.6 (4^TH)

TOTAL SACKS- 35 (T-14^TH)

 

 

                The Philadelphia Eagles have been on a roll, but I don’t think we can completely rule out a possible upset here.  Two division rivals, one looking to take ownership of the number one seed, the other trying to make their first playoff appearance in the last four years.  While it is likely that both situations will play out for these two franchises regardless of the outcome of this game, I like Washington in this game in an upset.  My thinking here is strictly that with Philly running hot for so long they will eventually have a down game.  That’s where I believe the Commanders, +3.5 underdogs will sneak in and come away with a win at home.

STEELERS VS. RAVENS PART II - FOR ALL THE MARBLES

 

        The regular season is almost over, meaning the holidays are just about here.  Christmas is less than a week away.  This is the time of year when the NFL starts preparing us for the playoffs, scheduling a few games on Saturdays to coincide with College Football which also begins a brand new 12-team College Football Playoff format.  This week we will have both College and NFL games on Saturday.  Pittsburgh Steelers will face off against division-rival Baltimore Ravens in the 4:30 PM slot.  This is the second meeting between these two teams this season.  In week 11 this exact matchup pretty much played out as we had anticipated.  It was a low-scoring, defensive stalemate between two teams who’ve long had a history with these types of battles.  When competitors consistently compete twice or more a year for many years, after some time they will pick up on a lot of each other's chemical and physical makeup through their style of play.  This is why when two divisional teams spar it isn’t irregular to see close-knit games.  Whether it is a high-scoring or low-scoring game, it’ll frequently wind up coming down to the last minute of regulation, often ending with a one-score margin of victory.

 

        Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles after winning 7 of their previous 9 games.  The Steelers went into Philly coming off a two-game win streak.  They had been averaging 35.5 points on offense in that span, accounting for about 29 points during their last 9 games.  What Pittsburgh’s offense did last Sunday was a far cry from that!  Though I probably shouldn’t be too harsh on the Steelers, after all, they were playing the Eagles' number one-ranked scoring defense.  Russell Wilson could only muster 128 passing yards, and their run game only produced a total of 56 yards.  Credit the Philadelphia Eagles for limiting this Arthur Smith-coached offense.  Don’t forget about Vic Fangio either!  I can’t say enough great things about Philly’s defensive coordinator with what he has been able to do this season turning them around.  However, this is about the Steelers' inefficiencies and a lack of help surrounding Pittsburgh’s quarterback.  I understand their number one weapon couldn’t suit up, but they also need more outside of George Pickens.  Where were Van Jefferson and Pat Freiermuth?  Why didn’t Arthur Smith attempt to get Jaylen Warren more involved in the passing game?  Whatever happened to Mike Williams?  I at least saw him on the field during his time with the Jets.  Since being traded to the Steelers I barely even see him out there.  Wasn’t he supposed to be a reliable set of hands for Russ in the intermediate game even if he can’t stretch the field anymore?  I’m just a little bit perplexed at exactly what his role is for the black and gold.  According to the box score, he was only targeted twice in this game while only one player had more than three catches for Pittsburgh (Calvin Austin III).  Freiermuth was one of only two men that was targeted more than twice.

        This week the Steelers will be on the road for the second consecutive week, this time playing the Ravens and their terrible pass defense (31^st).  They will be without top wideout George Pickens again!  I think now is the time to try and unleash Mike Williams for Arthur Smith.  Baltimore is the best team at stopping the run, allowing under 81 yards a game.  Pittsburgh is tenth in the league at running the ball but look how that worked out for them last week.  Russell Wilson will need to have a great game through the air, or the Steelers will ultimately have no shot.  Yes, they beat Baltimore already this season, the circumstances were also a little bit different.  If Baltimore wins this time around, then they will probably walk into the playoffs as the AFC North Champs.  Neither team has an easy two wins coming to them after Saturday's game, but I do think we can agree that the Ravens' final games (@ Hou, vs. Cle) are easier than Pittsburgh's (vs. KC, vs. Cin).

 

STEELERS OFFENSE:

POINTS P/G- 24.0 (10^TH)

TOT YARDS P/G- 325.6 (18^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 126.6 (10^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 198.9 (24^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 37 (20^TH)

 

STEELERS DEFENSE:

POINTS P/G- 18.9 (6^TH)

TOT YARDS P/G- 316.6 (9^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 94.4 (4^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 222.3 (22^ND)

TOTAL SACKS- 35 (14^TH)

 

        Baltimore must feel pretty good about their chances on Saturday afternoon.  Lamar has been playing the best ball of his career this season.   He has only thrown 3 interceptions, passed for 34 touchdowns (2^nd), and compiled over 3500 passing yards (5^th), plus has a QBR of 76.0 (2^nd).  He also hasn’t thrown a pick since he played the Steelers in their first matchup.  Jackson has been on a heater since that game throwing 9 TDs, scoring 10 total, and has only turned the ball over once, by way of a fumble last week.  I believe the most important matchup for the Ravens offense to be successful this week is their 2^nd ranked ground game against Teryl Austin’s 4^th ranked run defense.  Sure, the Ravens can and will pass on them and should be fine in doing so with a slightly banged-up T.J. Watt.  Steelers’ veteran edge rusher Larry Ogunjobi, and cornerback Donte Jackson are also battling injuries plus starting strong safety DeShon Elliott will not be available. 

Here’s the thing, when we think back to maybe six weeks ago who was the only player outside of the top four or five quarterbacks who was in everyone's MVP discussion?  It was Derrick Henry!  What happened to the league's most dominant runner?  We are now kicking off week 16 and have not heard a peep from Henry in about a month now.  He hasn’t had 100 or more rushing yards since week 12, which says a lot given the fact that Baltimore played the New York Giants last week.  Now, as much as I feel they need to get Henry back involved to account for a large portion of their yardage, they also can’t become one-dimensional.  When these two teams met the first time the Ravens only ran the ball 19 times while electing to pass 33 times.  I think they must run the ball between 25-30 times, allowing the King more attempts to do some damage.  Henry only had 13 carries in week 11 for 65 yards.  Philly exposed the Steelers last week while laying out the blueprint for them, rushing 42 times for 131 yards.  I understand it's easier said than done.  However, what I cannot understand is that the Baltimore Ravens don’t just have one of the most dominant running backs of the past decade-plus, but they also possess the most talented running quarterback the lead has ever seen.  We have all witnessed how dangerous Lamar can be when he pulls the ball down takes off downfield, juking, spinning dodging defenders by any means possible.  Yet, they are not utilizing Jackson as such.  Why is Todd Monken not mapping out game plans for them to have fake handoffs for QB runs?  Why not use Lamar's talents as a runner now that the opposition will be assuming Henry gets the ball more frequently?  It is understood that you must feed one of the NFL’s top runners, no debate there, though we are not seeing the Ravens attempt to go back to doing what had worked best for them in the past.  Quarterback runs for Jackson should be implemented back into the offense, seemingly with ease.

 

RAVENS OFFENSE:

POINTS P/G- 29.9 (3^RD)

TOT YARDS P/G- 424.1 (1^ST)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 178.4 (2^ND)

PASS YARDS P/G- 245.6 (3^RD)

SACKS ALLOWED- 22 (4^TH)

 

RAVENS DEFENSE:

POINTS P/G- 23.7 (22^ND)

TOT YARDS P/G- 339.6 (17^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 80.7 (1^ST)

PASS YARDS P/G- 258.9 (31^ST)

TOTAL SACKS- 44 (3^RD)

   

        These Ravens vs. Steelers games are truly one of a kind and are always special to watch.  No matter how good or bad these teams are they always deliver while are always one of the closely contested football games of any given week they are scheduled for.  I am excited about Saturday's NFL football games and will be meticulously watching especially this AFC North duel.  This game, with only two weeks remaining in the regular season, seems to be for all the marbles.  The winner will more than likely take the division and will either place third or fourth in the AFC playoff picture, hosting at least one post-season game, while the other will have to deliver on the road to make the second round.  The Steelers may have a game up on the Ravens, yet they are big underdogs (+7) for this game.  I would be inclined to bet the Ravens win this one, keeping in mind that Baltimore has lost 8 of the last 9 games in this rivalry series.   

ATLANTA TURNS TO ROOKIE PENIX JR.

 

            Atlanta Falcons haven’t had the season they thought they would’ve had coming into the season.  Many pegged Atlanta as a possible quick fix for the first-year head coach Raheem Morris.  Their roster was ably built with a savvy mixture of veterans plus a lot of young talent to complement them.  They had moved on from their previous QB Desmond Ridder after more than a season of failed gameplay.   Then they signed the Minnesota Vikings' previous QB of the past six seasons Kirk Cousins.  Atlanta started the season with a 6-3 record and Cousins was playing very sound football.  Throughout the first nine weeks of the season, Cousins had thrown for 2,328 yards with a 17-7 TD: INT ratio.  During that span, Kirk helped the Falcons achieve a 4-1 divisional record in the NFC South, holding a two-game lead from the rest of the division.  From that point onward, the Falcons started to stumble.  The focal point of their descent was the quarterback play of Cousins.  During the four-game losing streak, he tallied 1,068 yards passing, 8 interceptions, and hadn’t thrown a single touchdown.  This past Monday night in week 15 the Falcons played the Las Vegas Raiders.  While just barely beating them, the veteran QB finally threw a touchdown.  However, his stat line was that of a problematic passer.  Kirk was 11/17, completing 64.7% of his passes, throwing 1 TD and 1 interception with a total of 112 yards.  This was indubitably the straw that broke the camel's back.

            Raheem Morris and the Atlanta Falcons may have won on Monday night, but a 15-9 win over the lousy Raiders was a cry for help.  After just about 24 hours removed from that horrific offensive performance, the team decided something drastic had to be done.  What they came up with to fix the struggles was not necessarily a surprise by any means.  ESPN announced earlier today that the Falcons will be starting rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. next week in a home game against the New York Giants.  Penix Jr. was drafted out of Washington 8^th overall in the first round of the draft.  He played for the Huskies, starting 28 games as a second-year junior and senior.  Viewed as a top prospect in the nation he passed for 9,544 total yards, completing 65.4% of his passes, tossing 67 touchdowns opposed to just 19 interceptions.  Penix was a transfer from Indiana after his first four years, playing for the Hoosiers in only 20 games.  In his time there he accumulated 4,197 yards, 29 TDs, and 15 INTs.  With 48 career games under his belt, you can only imagine the Falcons offensive attack will strive to become a much better team very soon with Penix under center.  His senior year, the Huskies made a National Championship appearance for only the third time in program history but ultimately lost to Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines.  I don’t know if Penix will be able to rattle off three wins in a row to push Atlanta into the playoffs, nor is it expected.  Even if they did win out Atlanta would still need Tampa Bay to lose a game to end the season at least tied with them to win the South.  Kirk Cousins's fate isn’t entirely entrenched as their backup for good, though if the rookie has an incredible outing in his first start it will start to look gloomy real fast for the vet.               

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL - WILD CARD HEAT - DENVER AT LOS ANGELES

 

Last Sunday the Denver Broncos beat the Indianapolis Colts to improve their record to 9-5 this season.  By no means was this a start-to-finish blowout win.  The Broncos started this game very slowly, playing lackluster ball on offense for most of the game.  During the first three quarters, Joe Lombardi’s play-calling wasn’t that effective against a good Gus Bradley-coached Colts defensive unit.  It also didn’t help matters that Bo Nix threw three interceptions.  Indy’s linebacker (Zaire Franklin) picked off Nix early on about halfway through the first quarter.  Then around 4 minutes before the half, Broncos starting safety Brandon Jones retaliated with an interception of his own as Colts QB Anthony Richardson slightly overthrew his target (Alec Pierce).  This in-conference AFC matchup was full of turnovers (8), which was the game's biggest story.  The big play that had turned this game on its head was in the third quarter when Colts running back, Jonathon Taylor eclipsed a 41-yard touchdown run.  However, after a second look, Taylor dropped the ball before crossing the goal line.  Upon Taylor dropping the ball it rolled out of the back of the endzone thus Denver gaining possession, erasing what would have been a 20-7 lead.  Denver ended up benefiting from a total of five turnovers, including intercepting Colt’s receiver Adonai Mitchell on a play that Richardson initially threw a lateral pass to the rookie wideout; upon catching the ball he looked to throw it back to Richardson.  However, Denver’s top edge rusher and DPOTY candidate, Nick Bonitto was there to catch the pass and brought it back for six points. 

Los Angeles comes into this AFC West showdown against their divisional rivals with a dreadful loss.  There is no other way to say it, they straight up got man-handled on Sunday.  Jesse Minter’s defense, for the first time this year, was dismantled.  The Chargers allowed over 500 yards of offense to Baker and the Bucs, while also surrendering 40 points.  It was very ugly to watch as the Chargers had been very parsimonious in scoring defense before week 15.  They are still at the top of the league in average defensive scoring, only giving up 17.6 points (T-1^st).  Harbaugh and Minter are going to have a lot to figure out, they took a beaten both in the air and on the ground.  Tampa’s running back Bucky Irving averaged 7.8 yards per carry and ended the game with 117, but the strength of this defense all year had been against the pass (allowed 283 yards to Mayfield).  Meanwhile, the Chargers’ offense was also miserable, only putting up 206 total yards.  With J.K Dobbins out, (still dealing with an injury) they couldn’t find any room to run.  Chargers only rushed for a woeful 32 yards while also passing for just 174 yards.  Greg Roman will also be back at the drawing board to come up with a better game plan as his offense is preparing to face one of the elite defensive units this year in the Denver Broncos. 

The Chargers must be very careful in their last three games having not yet locked up a playoff spot.  Chances are even with a loss here they would more than likely retain the 7^th seed with the three teams looking in (Miami, Indy, Cincy- all 6-8) needing a whole lot to overtake L.A. and slide into the super wildcard slot.  Their defense is going to have to bring a lot of pressure to rattle Broncos’ rookie QB Bo Nix, who hasn’t played great in his last two starts but has still come away with two wins.  The Chargers did beat them earlier in the year at Denver, though their number one defensive player got hurt at the start of the game, never returning.  That same player, Pat Surtain II did get banged up on Sunday during a play in which he came up with an interception.  Either way, the Chargers need to limit their negative plays, try to push the ball downfield while also pass-protecting as if their lives depend on it. 

 

CHARGERS OFFENSE:

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 302.1 (27^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 105.8 (22^ND)

PASS YARDS P/G- 211.6 (9^TH)

POINTS PER GAME- 17.6 (T-1^ST)

TOT SKS ALLOWED- 41 (23^RD)

 

CHARGERS DEFENSE:

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 336.7 (14^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 125.1 (19^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 211.6 (9^TH)

POINTS PER GAME- 21.0 (21^ST)

TOTAL SACKS – 40 (T-6^TH)   

 

        Denver is looking to win 4 divisional games for the first time since winning the Super Bowl back in 2015.  First things first, Payton must have his boys ready to play Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers for the second time this season.  This time they are playing on the road where the Broncos have allowed less production out of their adversary's offenses than at home (Denver allows 104 rush yards at home & 94 yards away, 232 pass yards at home & 173 away).  Vance Joseph’s name surprisingly has not come up a whole lot in discussions for a head coaching spot next season.  I’m not exactly sure why, but one thing is for certain.  The Broncos will seemingly have an elite defense for the next handful of years and Joseph is the reason why.  Patrick Surtain II has been recognized as a DPOTY nominee, while their edge rusher Nik Bonitto has also popped up as such.  Bonitto is second in the league in sacks while he has also made house calls in each of his last two games.  Sean Payton could also be considered one of the stronger COTY candidates, though in all fairness I’d like to see him win out and win a playoff game or two before we can strongly place him at the head of that award.

 

BRONCOS OFFENSE:

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 311.1 (22^ND)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 108.4 (20^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 202.7 (23^RD)

POINTS PER GAME- 24.0 (10^TH)

TOT SKS ALLOWED- 20 (3^RD)

 

BRONCOS DEFENSE:

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 315.3 (8^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 98.6 (5^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 216.7 (T-15^TH)

POINTS PER GAME- 17.6 (T-1^ST)

TOTAL SACKS – 49 (1^ST)

 

        Huge game with even bigger playoff implications.  The chargers seem to be safe as of now.  They have two road games to end the season after tomorrow's home divisional game on Thursday Night Football.  Their next two will be against a bad New England Patriots team, while the Chargers' last regular season game will be another division rival, the Las Vegas Raiders.

If they want to beat a red-hot Broncos team, they will need to be strong in passing protection against the number one defense in sacks.  They will also need to consistently matriculate the ball downfield, winning the time of possession battle.  They will not be able to run on this 5th-ranked rush defense, so their best shot is to have Herbert take shots down the field.  Quick passes will be beneficial for Greg Roman to call, the longer you hold it the more sacks the Broncos will have. 

        Denver will have to limit Los Angeles in the passing game.  Pat Surtain II is a little banged up after a slight ankle sprain that he sustained on Sunday afternoon.  Their other starting corner Riley Moss has been hurt the past few games and still has not practiced as of Tuesday, according to the Broncos injury report.

The other way for Payton to come away with his 3^rd division win on the season will be for Nix and the offense to play turnover-free football.  Denver was pretty good at limiting offensive turnovers for much of the season, however, this has been a problem for them in their last two games.  Joe Brady should be game-planning to cook up a unique way to hit the Chargers where they are hurting most and take advantage of their pass defense after what the Buccaneers were able to do against them last week.  It is no secret that the Broncos have struggled running the rock, so it makes even more sense to air it out.  Javonte Williams has been vastly inefficient this season, while the rookie runner Audric Estime seems as though he will need some more time in this offense.  Their best running back this season, second-year player Jaleel McLaughlin (5.3 ypc) was a limited participant in Tuesday’s walkthrough.  If he is one hundred percent, I’d like Denver to let him get the bulk of their carries as he has started to gain a lot of traction in that backfield as their best runner.  Denver is currently +2.5 underdogs on the road for tomorrow night which will take place in Los Angeles at Sofi Stadium on Thursday Night Football.   

BILLS MAFIA INVADES 313

 

          Ford Field will have two shades of blue in their arena tomorrow afternoon.  Nickel City is coming to Detroit and bringing their often-rowdy Bills Mafia fans with them.  We can only hope they don’t bring their tables with them, a fanbase notorious for jumping and slamming people through tables like they are WWE wrestlers.  I am extremely excited about this game!  Though as a fan of a team that also plays in the same time slot, I wish this would have been scheduled as the Sunday Night game and many others may also be wondering why this is not.  These two teams are both very much in the Super Bowl discussion this year and for good reasons.  They are the top two scoring offenses in the NFL through 14 weeks, along with two top 10 defenses in points allowed.  This contest has all the makings of a heavyweight fight!  In one corner you have a man who was being discussed as an early favorite for MVP, Lions QB Jared Goff, and in the other corner, you have another possible regular season MVP in Josh Allen.

          I did some research for this game and found that these two teams have met twelve times in the history of their franchises.  Buffalo leads the series with a record of 7-4-1.  Buffalo, aka Queen City of Lakes, has often left the pride drowning as the Bills not only own the series but have also beaten the Lions 50% of the time in Detroit.  The Bills have been on a roll against the Lions winning six of their last seven meetings, two of which were at Ford Field including their last game when Buffalo beat Detroit 28-25 in 2022.  The biggest difference for the Lions this time around would have to be their dual running threat, Sonic & Knuckles.  In case you don’t know what, I am speaking of this was the nickname given to their two rushers Jahymr Gibbs (Sonic) and David Mongomery (Knuckles).  The nickname just symbolizes the speed of Gibbs which perfectly mixes with the hard-running style of Mongomery.

         

          Detroit has been widely known for being one of the grittiest teams in the NFL ever since Dan Campbell took the reigns as their head coach back in January of 2021.  This has been largely publicized as ultimately the best decision the Detroit Lions have made in the history of their organization.  What Campbell has built there is truly incredible.  Taking a team with a miserable history and turning it into a powerhouse for the foreseeable future is a true testament to how well he knows football and his beliefs for what can become greatness.  Trading Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff was scrutinized and criticized leaguewide when the Lions made the move per Stafford’s suggestion.  There are still doubters when it comes to Goff, but the reality is that he is one of the most reliable quarterbacks in the NFL today.  Sure, he may not be in your top five most desirable QBs when it comes to fantasy football, but going into week 15 he has his Lions sitting atop the NFC and the entire league tied with KC for first place at 12-1.  Detroit’s offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has this unit placed as second-best in total yardage per game and that will only continue with the pieces they have.  They have a top 5 O-line that has allowed the 8^th least sacks this year, and three highly impressive receivers (Amon-Ra St.Brown, Jameson Williams, & Tim Patrick) as outlets at Goff's disposal plus a tight end in his second year who is coming off a Pro Bowl season (Sam Laporta).        

LIONS OFFENSE:

TOTAL OFFENSE P/G- 394.8 (2^ND)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 151.1 (4^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 243.8 (4^TH)

POINTS P/G- 32.1 (1^ST)

TOTAL SKS ALLOWED- 25 (8^TH)

 

LIONS DEFENSE:

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 318.6 (10^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 93.9 (5^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 224.7 (24^TH)

POINTS P/G- 18.0 (T-2^ND)

TOTAL SACKS- 31 (T-19^TH)

 

          The Buffalo Bills are heading to Detroit with a ton of confidence in their back pockets.  Buffalo is coming off a loss, though Josh Allen had his best performance of his career, accounting for six touchdowns himself.  Allen put up all 42 points alone last Sunday (minus PATs) as the Bills still managed to lose 44-42 to a quickly turned-around Los Angeles Rams squad.  Buffalo’s QB threw three touchdowns while also rushing for an added three scores, literally doing everything in his power to win the game, without a single turnover.  Buffalo’s OC Joe Brady will have his full repertoire of players ready to go into combat against Aaron Glenn’s (Detroit’s DC) number-two-ranked scoring defense.  Running back James Cook should be back to himself this week after having a dud against the Rams and Brady should utilize him steadily in their passing game, which should cause mismatch issues for Detroit with all the injuries to the Lions linebackers.  Josh should also greatly benefit from veteran Amari Cooper and rookie Keon Coleman, both back in full health.  Cooper comes into this game being targeted 14 times last week (most targets for him in a game this season) while hauling in 6 receptions for 95 yards.  Their tight end Dalton Kincaid has missed the previous three games but was a full go at practice on Wednesday.  He is listed as questionable, but I’d bet he’ll be available Sunday.

 

BILLS OFFENSE:

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 355.0 (10^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 125.7 (11^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 229.3 (12^TH)

POINTS P/G- 30.5 (2^ND)

TOTAL SKS ALLOWED- 13 (1^ST)

 

BILLS DEFENSE:

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 332.0 (14^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 123.1 (19^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 208.9 (9^TH)

POINTS P/G- 20.6 (8^TH)

TOTAL SACKS- 29 (T-22^ND)

 

          This game may very well come down to whoever possesses the ball last and could be a high-scoring game.  I think the Bills will probably have a pass-happy game plan with Detroit giving up the 22^nd most passing yards per game.  The Lions haven’t had much of a pass rush ever since their all-star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson went down at the beginning of the season with a leg injury.  On the other side, the Lions' offense can beat you by way of ground or air, though the smarter move would be to ground and pound on Bobby Babich’s (Bills DC) 19th-ranked run defense.  I mean they are the only NFL team currently with two premier running backs, as aforementioned Sonic & Knuckles (Gibbs and Montgomery).  Gibbs is 5^th in rushing yards this season (1,016 yards) while both backs rank in the top ten in rushing touchdowns (Montgomery 3^rd-12tds, Gibbs 9^th-10tds).  It is also notable to add that Josh Allen ironically is ranked 10^th in rushing touchdowns this season with 9.  Allen is the ultimate weapon and one of the most athletic QBs the NFL has ever seen.  He is also 6^th in passing TDs with 23, while Jared Goff ranks one spot higher at 5^th with 25 TDs.  Buffalo goes into Ford Field as +2.5 underdogs, but I would bet the Lions stay hot, winners of their last 11 straight who haven’t lost a game since week 2.

PUGNACIOUS IN PENNSYLVANIA

 

        This upcoming Sunday offers NFL fans some enticing games slated for week 15.  One of these intriguing interconference matchups that is gaining a lot of steam leading up to kickoff is a battle of two teams within the same state.  The Mike Tomlin-led Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to Philadelphia as they take on coach Nick Sirianni’s Philadelphia Eagles.  These two franchises will go head-to-head for the 82^nd time in NFL history.  Philly leads the all-time series when competing against Pittsburgh, 49-29-3, 48 of those wins came in the regular season.  No, they never met in a Super Bowl, however, the two franchises met in the 1947 NFL Eastern Division Championship and the Eagles won 21-0.  The largest margin of victory between them was when the E-A-G-L-E-S dismantled them 45-3 in 1942.  The Steelers' biggest win came in 1959, with black and gold shutting out gang green 31-0.  Philly also owns the longest win streak of the series ripping off 7 consecutive victories 1947-1950.  The last meeting was also won by the Eagles, 35-13 in 2022.

 

        Pittsburgh has had a strong season to this point.  Mike Tomlin is proving how great of a coach he is while leading the Steelers to a 10-3 record this season.  They are currently looking as if they could be a legitimate threat to the Kansas City Chiefs.  Is the Steel Curtain era back?  They certainly are making a case for it, T.J. Watt is the odds-on favorite to win DPOTY, Teryl Austin’s (DC) defense is in the top 5 in scoring and total yards, defensive tackle Cam Hayward has turned back the hands of time, and Mike Tomlin is also in the running for the COTY!  Offensively, they’ve also been getting better by the week.  Russell Wilson has been proving his time in Denver was merely a fluke as he has helped them become the 10th-best scoring unit in the league this season.  In terms of passing, they are averaging just over 268 yards in their last 3 weeks.  However, they will have to look towards other weapons for Russ on the outside as George Pickens has already been listed as out with a nagging hamstring injury.

 

STEELERS OFFENSE:

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 338.1 (16^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 132.1 (9^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 206.0 (23^RD)

POINTS P/G- 24.8 (10^TH)

TOTAL SACKS ALLOWED- 35 (20^TH)

 

STEELERS DEFENSE:

TOTAL DEFENSE P/G- 310.2 (7^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 91.5 (5^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 218.6 (18^TH)

POINTS P/G- 18.3 (5^TH)

TOTAL SACKS- 32 (T-15^TH)

 

        The Eagles have been playing great football this year as well.  They are the second-best team in the NFC, only one game back from the Detroit Lions, and have now won nine straight dating back to week 5.  Philly had initially started a little flat on defense this season, then down the stretch, they’ve been one of the best defenses in the league.  Much credit goes to Vic Fangio (DC), he has since coached his men to become a premier unit in defensive scoring.  This Eagles team has two amazing rookie cornerbacks bolstering the back end and holding opposing offenses to the second least passing yards per game.  I don’t know what the Steelers' offense will be able to accomplish against Fangio’s men, they don’t have any real weaknesses, only progressively get stronger with time.  The only real thing that is worrisome for this team is their passing game on the offensive side.  Their air attack has been atrocious this year.  I guess you can attribute that to the fact that Saquon has just been so good that they haven’t had to worry about the passing game in the same way as in past years.  In Philly’s last three games, their air attack averaged roughly 120 yards a game.  Last week was by far their worst, maybe ever for the Philadelphia franchise as Jalen Hurts only threw for 83 yards.  Maybe another piece to this puzzle could be the fact that A.J. Brown and Jalen don’t seem to be on the same page as of late and Brandon Graham made comments to the media about a week ago stating that there may be a problem in the city of brotherly love.

 

EAGLES OFFENSE:

TOTAL OFFENSE P/G- 371.7 (6^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 190.5 (1^ST)

PASS YARDS P/G- 180.6 (31^ST)

POINTS P/G – 26.3 (8^TH)

TOTAL SACKS ALLOWED- 36 (22^ND)

EAGLES DEFENSE:

TOTAL DEFENSE P/G- 284.2 (1^ST)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 105.8 (8^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 178.5 (2^ND)

POINTS P/G – 18.0 (T-2^ND)

TOTAL SACKS- 37 (T-7^TH)

 

        Though Philly has excelled thus far with the ground game having the offense go through the league's leading rusher Saquon Barkley, they may wind up playing right into the hands of the Steelers' strength if they use a heavy dose of running script against them.  Pittsburgh only allows 91 yards per game in rushing as the stats above point out, meaning I think that Hurts will have to get back on track with receivers DeVonta Smith & A.J. Brown if they want to beat this non-bendable ore of defense.  If Tomlin wants to show the state of P.A. that Steel City is bigger than the home of the Liberty Bell, he will need to attack the Eagles where it hurts most.  Pittsburgh, as I already mentioned, will be without Wilson’s number one target, so it makes even more sense to attack the Eagles' rush defense.  Look for Arthur Smith to deploy both running backs to try and wear down their opponents, while also utilizing Jaylen Warren on bubble screens and in other passing situations.  Then Smith can attempt to get Russ out of the pocket to throw some of those moonballs to Van Jefferson, Mike Williams, Pat Freiermuth, and the rest of the skilled players.  My thoughts on this game will be that it will be a closely contested one and quite possibly a lower-scoring game.  Assuming the spread stays where it is currently, Pittsburgh will be +5.5 underdogs.  The funny thing about the Steelers being underdogs is they are undefeated this year when placed as such.  If I were betting on this one, I would take those 5.5 points, it could wind up ending with a three-point margin.    

HEISMAN FINAL FOUR

 

4)  4) DILLON GABRIEL – OREGON DUCKS- QB

Dillon Gabriel started the season a little slow, but before you knew it, he had found his footing and was off to the races.  Week two almost proved too tough a matchup for Oregon when Boise State came into Oregon and barely lost to the Ducks.  They ended up winning on a 25-yard field goal as time expired to stay perfect.  Gabriel went 18 of 21, throwing 243 yards and 2 TDs while also rushing for another score.  Though it may not have seemed so at the time the Ducks beat a great Broncos team.  The reality is that they took down the nation’s 9th-ranked team with the best running back in college football and possibly the best in NCAA history if he breaks the record.  That win was their closest contested game by any opponent until they played Ohio State in week 6.  Gabriel played his heart out against Ohio when he completed 23 of 34 passes, he threw 341 yards and totaled 372 yards.  Oregon’s QB scored 2 air TDs & 1 more on the ground.  His 27-yard scamper put Oregon back up by one point for only the second time in the game.  Gabriel is one of the main reasons they have maintained the nation's top-ranked team (for the first time in program history) while also going undefeated (13-0).

DILLON GABRIEL’S 2024 STATS:

PASS YDS- 3,558 (8^TH-NATION), (1^ST-BIG TEN)

TDS- 28 (8^TH-NATION), (1^ST-BIG TEN)

INTS- 6 (3^RD-BIG TEN)

CMP%- 73.2% (3^RD-NATION), (1^ST-BIG TEN)

PASSER RATING- 166.6 (7^TH-NATION), (3^RD-BIGTEN)

QBR- 86.5 (2^ND-NATION)

 

3) CAM WARD- MIAMI HURRICANES- QB

        Cam Ward is an unbelievably talented football player and will undoubtedly excel at the professional level of football upon entering the NFL next year.  Having only played one ranked team this season in Syracuse and losing is really what ended up hurting their chances of making the college football playoffs this year.  Miami also lost a game to an unranked feisty Georgia Tech team even with Cam passing for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns.  The Hurricanes started the season 9-0 and were ranked as the number 7 team in the nation at their peak back in week 4.  Unfortunately, they are in the ACC with both SMU and Clemson, who have better conference records than Miami this year.

CAM WARD’S 2024 STATS:  

PASS YDS- 4,123 (2^ND-NATION), (2^ND-ACC)

TDS- 36 (1^ST-NATION)

INTS- 7 (3^RD-ACC)

CMP%- 67.4% (3^RD-ACC)

PASSER RATING- 171.5 (5^TH-NATION)

QBR- 88.0 (1^ST-NATION)

 

2) ASHTON JEANTY- BOISE STATE BRONCOS- RB

        Aston Jeanty has been nothing short of amazing!  This Boise State team would not be anywhere close to a college playoff appearance had it not been for this young man’s legs.  Jeanty is a ball of fire shot out of a cannon, and he can beat you in so many ways.  He is a master class at breaking tackles, running through you, stiff-arming defenders, spin moves, and quick agile jukes.  No running back had more 60-plus-yard runs this season.  Boise’s running back is well on his way to breaking the All-Time college rushing record with only 131 yards separating him from taking down a record that was set by the one and only Barry Sanders in 1988 (2,628 yards).  Jeanty’s 2,497 rushing yards this season are the fourth-highest single-season total in FBS history while also more than 115 FBS other programs had produced this year.  He has also rushed for 29 touchdowns which is equal to or better than 118 FBS programs.  He accomplished so many great things this year, such as rushing for 125+ yards in 13 games along with 200 or more yards in 8 games his senior year (most in Mountain West history).  Boise State is firmly placed in the college football playoffs as the third-highest-ranked conference champions.  They earned a bye week and now await their next competitor (SMU or PSU).

        ASHTON JEANTY’S 2024 STATS:

RUSH YARDS- 2,497 (1^ST-NATION)

CARRIES- 344 (1^ST-NATION)

AVERAGE YPC- 7.3 (1^ST-NATION)

RUSHING TDS- 29 (1^ST-NATION)

FORCED MISSED TACKLES- 135 (1^ST-NATION)

        *BROKE BIJAN ROBINSON’S RECORD OF 104 IN 2022!!!

YARDS AFTER CONTACT- 1,882 (1^ST-NATION)

*ASHTON’S YAC IS MORE THAN ANY OTHER RB’S TOTAL RUSHING YARDS IN THE NATION THIS SEASON!!!!!

 

1) TRAVIS HUNTER- COLORADO BUFFAOLES- WR/CB

        Travis Hunter is unquestionably one of one.  He is the most decorated college football player and is the only athletic freak that I’ve ever seen who can play each snap on both sides of the ball in every single game he plays.  The biggest question with Hunter is will he play wideout or cornerback in the NFL?  That’s a trick question, right?  I feel like wherever he ends up he will do whatever he can to try and get snaps at both positions.  Though in the pros I don’t think it will be sustainable for him, playing the way he’s been at the collegiate level.  It’s not a question of toughness, though the players are bigger, faster, and stronger.  When playing receiver, you’re constantly taking a beating, making it incredibly hard to then go back out there on defense to put a lick on others while trying to maintain your health for a 17-plus game season, barring your team qualifies for the playoffs.  Coach Prime has spoken about how monumental this young and gifted specimen has been for him and his Colorado program.  Sanders wants to see him not only shine in the NFL but also be rewarded by way of the Heisman Trophy for all the accolades he has accomplished within college football.  The Buffaloes were often overlooked in the past two seasons but did show the entire nation just how special they could be.  They ultimately missed out on the college football playoffs after a devastating loss to the Kansas Jayhawks 37-21 before coming back with vengeance in their last game against OSU pummeling them 52-0!  The highest Colorado ranked this season was at number 16 in the nation.

        TRAVIS HUNTER’S 2024 WR STATS:

REC YARDS- 1,152 (6^TH-NATION), (3^RD-BIG12)

RECEPTIONS- 92 (5^TH-NATION), (1^ST-BIG12)

TOUCHDOWNS- 14 (2^ND-NATION), 1^ST-BIG12)

        TRAVIS HUNTER’S 2024 CB STATS:

TACKLES- 31

SOLO TKS- 20

PASSES DEFENSED- 11 (8^TH-NATION), (1^ST-BIG12)

INTERCEPTIONS- 4 (17^TH-NATION), (3^RD-BIG12)

FORCED FUMBLES- 1 (4^TH-BIG12)

       

*Hunter allowed the fewest receiving yards (205) in the nation, had the most forced incompletions (8), allowed the lowest passer rating when targeted (42), accounted for the 2^nd most coverage snaps (399), and allowed the 2^nd fewest yards per reception (9.3), per PFF.

 

Now there is nothing against either Cam Ward or Dillon Gabriel, they both played outstanding this year while also adding pure excitement to the entire college football season.  The fact of the matter is just that Travis Hunter and Ashton Jeanty are once-in-a-generation types of talent.  What both of those men were able to do in college football this season will truly go down in CFB history!  Make your pick for the Heisman and stick with it.  I can’t wait to see who ends up winning the trophy, either way, we realize the winner is more than deserving of this prestigious award. 

The Heisman Trophy Ceremony is this Saturday, December 14^th at 8 PM ET on ESPN.