PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE – THIRD TIMES THE CHARM

 

            The regular season has ended, and the fourteen best teams are on to postseason play.  Wild Card weekend has a full slate of great games, one of which will be a divisional matchup.  The Pittsburgh Steelers are making their second trip to Baltimore in three weeks.  Baltimore is playing at home for the fourth time in the past six weeks.  Mike Tomlin’s Steelers took the first game between these rivals, while John Harbaugh’s Ravens bested Russell Wilson and company in the second matchup.  Only one of these two teams will be heading into the Divisional Round of the Playoffs, thus the third time will be the charm for whoever comes away victorious.

 

            Pittsburgh is in unfamiliar territory losing four straight games en route to the playoffs.  Mike Tomlin, their leader and head coach of the last 18 years, is staring down the team that you’d assume he would least like to face in the opening round of the playoffs.  If the Steelers were to lose, we would witness something that has only happened twice before to a Tomlin-coached team, the Steelers losing five straight games.  Now I think everyone can understand what I mean when I say this Baltimore team is probably the last team coach Tomlin would want to see.  It’s not purely about the fact that Lamar has been playing better than either of his MVP seasons, it’s not because they have a 1,900 + yard rusher at 6’2”, 247lbs, or the fact that the Ravens possess the third-best scoring offense in the NFL.  The reality is that no team in the playoffs knows the Steelers as well as the Ravens do!  As I had previously alluded to in my article about the Steelers-Ravens most recent game, rivalry matchups are always the trickiest games to choose a victor for because they know each other’s tendencies so well that even the worst of teams can beat the best team in divisional environments.

             Pittsburgh has been 8-4 against Baltimore since 2019.  Verily, they are 36-26 all-time when matching up with the Ravens, including a 3-1 playoff record over their supreme rivals.  With that said there has been a lot of talk about the possibility of the Steelers playing backup quarterback Justin Fields in some capacity for this game.  Why would they move on from Wilson after replacing Fields in favor of Russell earlier this season?  Well, maybe this kind of talk derives from the Steelers’ four consecutive games of scoring 17 or fewer points, a streak their offense hasn’t fallen victim to since the 2003 season.  The credence that replacing Wilson with Fields could be the answer to an upset over Lamar Jackson doesn’t make sense to me.  Here’s why, with Fields as their starter in his six games, the Steelers averaged 20.6 points per game, while in Wilson’s eleven starts, they averaged 23.3 points a game.  Frankly, I don’t think it matters much who the starter is, though what could be the x-factor for this game is to game plan to have both men in the lineup.  Let me clarify my thoughts, I would like to see both quarterbacks play on Saturday night in Baltimore.  How about cooking up some packages where both Fields and Wilson are out there at the same time, I mean Justin Fields is an unbelievable athlete, and maybe have a few bubble screens for him, or some direct snaps to him to let him do what he does best, run!  Heck, I mean, you can also throw him the rock a few times, that’ll catch the defense off guard.    

              

STEELERS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 22.4 (16^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 319.4 (22^ND)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 127.4 (11^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 192.0 (27^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 49 (23^RD)

 

STEELERS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 20.4 (8^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 326.7 (12^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 98.7 (6^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 228.0 (25^TH)

TOTAL SACKS- 40 (16^TH)

 

            Baltimore has been red hot lately, winning four straight games, while winners of six of their last eight.  We all see how great the Ravens offense has been throughout the year, however, the recent turnaround on the defensive side of the ball is what caught my eye.  Over their last three games defensive coordinator Zach Orr has had his guys only surrender 9.6 points per game.  If you don’t think that’s saying a lot, let me remind you that two of their last three games were against playoff teams.  However, it gets even better because, since week 11 this revived defensive unit has only allowed an average of 15.4 points to their opponents.  Due to a knee injury, they will be without Jackson’s number-one target Zay Flowers.  I believe this offense still has more than enough firepower to get the job done even without Flowers in the lineup. 

Yes, the Ravens are just 1-3 all-time when facing Pittsburgh in the playoffs.  The funny thing about that is every single one of those games was played in Pittsburgh.  The last time they met in postseason play was in 2015, becoming the first time the Ravens bested them.  When looking at the ESPN.com list of Team Win Rate Rankings it is pretty clear that the Steelers are the better team in the trenches with their o-line matchup against the Ravens’ d-line as their run-block-win-rate is better than Baltimore’s run-stop-win-rate, and their pass-block-win-rate is also better than the Ravens pass-rush-win-rate.  At the same time, the Ravens are second in the league in sacks, Pittsburgh has allowed 49 sacks (23^rd), and in terms of the run game, the Steelers are producing the 11th-best rushing offense against the Ravens’ league-leading run defense. 

 

RAVENS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 30.5 (3^RD)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 424.9 (1^ST)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 187.6 (1^ST)

PASS YARDS P/G- 237.4 (7^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 24 (4^TH)

 

RAVENS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 21.2 (9^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 324.2 (10^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 80.1 (1^ST)

PASS YARDS P/G- 244.1 (31^ST)

TOTAL SACKS- 54 (2^ND)

 

            In conclusion, it is clear the better offense belongs to the Ravens, while the better defense is Pittsburgh.  If the Steelers allow 20 or more rushes to Derrick Henry, they’re in trouble, as the Ravens are undefeated this season when Henry accomplishes just that.  Another statistic in favor of the Ravens is that Tomlin hasn’t won a road playoff game since 2016 and is just 2-5 in playoff postseason games in totality.  Tomlin is a great head coach but has struggled throughout his career in the playoffs with a record of 8-10 all-time.  Harbaugh is 12-10 in his playoff career and 3-3 as the home team.  The last thing I will say is that as great as Lamar Jackson is, he has a 2-4 record against the Steelers since becoming the Ravens quarterback.  Heading into this Wild Card game on Saturday at 8 PM, Baltimore is -9.5 favorites at home.  For Lamar Jackson to solidify himself as one of the greatest at the quarterback position, it is imperative for the Ravens to come out victorious.

TOP TEN RUNNING BACKS

 

MY TOP 20 OVERLOOKED DEFENSIVE PLAYERS OF 2024

 

20) DONTE JACKSON- CB – PIT

5 INTS, 28 SOLO, 38 TK, 8 PD, 2 TFL, 1 FR

 

19) MILTON WILLIAMS- DT- PHI

5 SACK, 6.5 STF, 24 TK, 13 AST, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PD

 

18) REED BLANKENSHIP- S- PHI

4 INT, 6 PD, 52 SOLO, 78 TK, 1 FR

 

17) JACK JONES- CB- LV

16 PD, 52 SOLO, 69 TK, 3 INT, 1 TD, 4.5 STF

 

16) GENO STONE- S- CIN

4 INT, 1 TD, 6 PD, 1 FR, 81 TK, 47 SOLO

 

15) TRAVON WALKER- DE- JAC

10.5 SACK, 8 STF, 2 FF, 1 FR, 31 SOLO, 61 TK, 1 PD

 

14) BRANDON JONES- S- DEN

115 TK, 79 SOLO, 3 INT, 10 PD, 1 FF, 1 FR, 2 TFL

 

13) ODAFE OWEH- LB- BAL

10 SACK, 9.5 STF, 1 FR, 25 SOLO, 39 TK

 

12) CODY BARTON- LB- DEN

106 TK, 53 SOLO, 2 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 TD, 1.5 SACK, 5 PD, 2 TFL

 

11) DEREK STINGLEY JR.- CB- HOU

18 PD, 5 STF, 5 INT, 37 SOLO, 54 TK

 

10) NICK CROSS- S- IND

146 TK, 87 SOLO, 1 SACK, 1 FF, 3 INT, 5 PD, 4 STF

 

9) JONATHON COOPER- EDGE- DEN

10.5 SACK, 33 SOLO, 11 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PD

 

8) E.J SPEED- LB- IND

142 TK, 93 SOLO, 7 TFL, 5 PD, 1 INT

 

7) KYZIR WHITE- LB- ARI

137 TK, 60 SOLO, 2.5 SACK, 9 TFL, 1 INT, 3 PD, 1 FR

6) DAIYAN HENLEY- LB- LAC

147 TK, 84 SOLO, 1 SACK, 7 TFL, 8 PD, 1 INT

 

5) ANDREW VAN GINKEL- LB- MIN

11.5 SACK, 79 TK, 50 SOLO, 18 TFL, 6 PD, 2 INT, 2 TD, 1 FF

 

4) JAMIEN SHERWOOD- LB- NYJ

158 TK, 98 SOLO, 2 SACK, 10 TFL, 3 PD

 

3) ROBERT SPILLANE- LB- LV

158 TK, 91 SOLO, 2 SACK, 10 TFL, 2 INT, 7 PD

 

2) BUDDA BAKER- S- ARI

164 TK, 95 SOLO, 2 SACK, 10 TFL, 5 PD, 1 FF

 

1)     ZAIRE FRANKLIN- LB- IND

173 TK, 93 SOLO, 3.5 SACK, 11 TFL, 2 INT, 6 PD, 5 FF

NFL PLAYOFFS WILD CARD RD – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

 

            After a masterful first season as the Los Angeles Chargers head coach, Jim Harbaugh yet again finds himself back in the NFL Playoffs.  It also seems like it worked out perfectly for Jim and his team, they’re gearing up to play the weakest divisional champs the AFC has to offer this year, the Houston Texans.  The Chargers are a whopping 6-3 against the Texans all-time, 4-1 in Houston.  Harbaugh hasn’t coached against the Texans much in his entire head coaching career.  He has seen them a total of four times while coaching the Niners, three of those games were pre-season games in which he went 1-2.  The only regular season game where he coached against the Houston Texans was in 2013 when San Fran scorched them 34-3.        

           

            The Chargers have a huge opportunity this weekend to show the rest of the league exactly what the Jim Harbaugh experience is all about!  I don’t think many thought that the Chargers would be here already, regardless of how great of a coach Jim is.  I know I had them down as a Playoff team for next season, but not now.  It is largely because of players such as quarterback Justin Herbert’s phenomenal play paired with a breakout rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey.  They also had a big year out of (often hurt) J.K. Dobbins’ running back.  Dobbins did miss some time this season though luckily he didn’t suffer any serious injuries this season and hopefully will remain healthy for their playoff run.

            Greg Roman’s offensive scheme didn’t exactly warrant top-ten numbers in any statistical category in year one, however, when you have Justin Herbert throwing the ball you can never count him out.  In the playoffs, they will be matched up against a good defense that has been one of the best against the pass this year.  What is more intriguing about this game will be the defensive play of the Chargers against Houston’s offense.  I will be the battle of the big men up front.  The Chargers are ranked 6^th in sacks this season (46) while the Texans rank 29^th in sacks allowed (54).  This may sound odd given that Houston’s offensive line has been abysmal at pass blocking, but I’m anticipating the Chargers' defense to have more of an issue against the pass than the Texans' run game.  The Chargers are the 7^th best at run-stop-win-rate, while the Texans run-block-win-rate is the second worst in the league this year.

 

CHARGERS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 23.6 (11^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 324.2 (20^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 110.7 (17^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 213.5 (19^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 44 (19^TH)

 

CHARGERS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 17.7 (1^ST)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 324.4 (11^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 117.5 (14^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 206.9 (7^TH)

TOTAL SACKS – 46 (6^TH)

 

            Houston hasn’t looked great this year especially considering how good they played just a year ago.  If you are thinking maybe second-year QB C.J. Stroud had a sophomore slump?  No, it’s not that at all.  Technically, he did regress with his production from his rookie performance (4,108 yards, 23TDs, 5 INTs in 2023; 3,727 yards, 20TDs, 12INTs in 2024) though he has been sacked the second most of any QB this season. (Houston allowed 54 sacks) Furthermore, all three of his top wideouts were injured this season plus the O-line has played awful this year.  I don’t blame Stroud or OC Bobby Slowik for the rapid change of this team's outlook, I blame the men up front for the Texans. 

            When you take notice within the analytics of football, oftentimes you may just go by the win-loss record, the QB’s statistics, or just individual player's numbers.  That will only tell you how good a positional player is not how good or bad the entirety of a team is.  However, if you choose to look at something called team win rates, you will start to get a much better feeling of what kind of team they are.  I mean after all; anyone who knows football knows that the game starts with the guys up front in the trenches.  Espn.com shows every NFL team's win rate ranking, Houston ranks 22^nd in pass-block-win-rate and 31^st in run-block-win-rate.  That kind of clarifies why the Texans haven’t been quite the offensive machine they were last year.

            Defensively Houston has tightened up a whole lot in comparison to last year’s unit.  Derek Stingley Jr. is just a part of the reason why.  That man has played his tail off this season while also putting up career-best numbers across the board and tying his most interceptions (5) for a season.  Both of Houston’s defensive ends, veteran and second-year edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have also had a major impact on the defense with their strong campaigns.  The Texans tied the Minnesota Vikings, becoming the only two teams in the league with multiple players in the top ten in sacks this season. (Hunter 5^th with 12 sacks, Anderson 10^th with 11 sacks)

 

TEXANS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 21.9 (19^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 319.7 (22^ND)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 112.3 (15^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G – 207.4 (21^ST)

SACKS ALLOWED- 54 (29^TH)

 

TEXANS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 21.9 (14^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 315.0 (6^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 114.0 (11^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 201.0 (6^TH)

TOTAL SACKS – 49 (4^TH)

 

 

            This AFC Wild Card matchup will either be a closely contested game or a blowout.  I for one believe it should be a good one.  A lot of sports media outlets along with NFL analysts believe that the Chargers should easily handle the Texans on the road.  I say look for the upset in this game, look for Stroud to do just enough to come out on top.  The Chargers are currently -2.5 favorites in Houston.  NFL Playoffs are always the best sports games of the year, so don’t miss out on the action or you’ll heavily regret it!  Chargers at the Texans on Saturday at 4:30 PM.    

NFL WIN RATE PLAYOFF PLAYERS/TEAMS

 

TOP NFL WIN RATE PLAYERS AMONG PLAYOFF TEAMS PER ESPN.COM

DEFENSIVE LINE WIN RATES

EDGE PASS RUSH WIN RATE

1) DANIELLE HUNTER – TEXANS = 26%

2) WILL ANDERSON JR.- TEXANS = 22%

3) DANTE FOWLER JR. – COMMANDERS = 20%

4) JONATHAN GREENARD – VIKINGS = 20%

5) T.J. WATT – STEELERS = 19%

6) JARED VERSE – RAMS = 18%

7) NIK BONITTO – BRONCOS = 17%

8) ODAFE OWEH – RAVENS = 16%

9) KYLE VAN NOY – RAVENS = 16%

 

DT PASS RUSH WIN RATE

1) CHRIS JONES- CHIEFS = 16%

2) ZACH ALLEN – BRONCOS = 15%

3) MILTON WILLIAMS- EAGLES = 13%

4) VITA VEA – BUCCANEERS = 12%

5) ED OLIVER – BILLS = 12%

6) DAQUAN JONES- BILLS = 11%

7) ALIM MCNEILL- LIONS = 10%

8) MORGAN FOX- CHARGERS = 10%

9) KEEANU BENTON- STEELERS = 10%

10) BRADEN FISKE-  RAMS = 9%

 

EDGE RUN STOP WIN RATE

1) RASHAN GARY- PACKERS = 37%

2) JONATHAN GREENARD- VIKINGS = 32%

3) JARED VERSE – RAMS = 32%

 

DT RUN STOP WIN RATE

   1) T.J. SLATON- PACKERS = 46%

   2) D.J. JONES- BRONCOS = 45%

   3) TIM SETTLE JR.- TEXANS = 40%

   4) MALCOLM ROACH- BRONCOS = 38%

   5) ED OLIVER – BILLS = 38%

 

OFFENSIVE LINE WIN RATES

OT PASS BLOCK WIN RATES

  1) TRISTAN WIRFS- BUCCANEERS = 96%

  2) BRIAN O’NEILL- VIKINGS = 95%

  3) LANE JOHNSON- EAGLES = 94%

  4) MIKE MCGLINCHEY- BRONCOS = 94%

  5) GARETT BOLLES- BRONCOS = 93%

  6) DION DAWKINS- BILLS = 93%

  7) ANDREW WYLIE- COMMANDERS = 93%

  8) LAREMY TUNSIL- TEXANS = 93%

  9) DAN MOORE JR.- STEELERS = 93%                                                                

       10) RONNIE STANLEY- RAVENS = 92%

       11) TAYLOR DECKER- LIONS = 92%

       12) JORDAN MAILATA- EAGLES = 92%

       13) SPENCER BROWN- BILLS = 92%

       14) JAWAAN TAYLOR- CHIEFS = 92%

       15) ZACH TOM- PACKERS = 92%

       16) PENEI SEWELL- LIONS = 91%

 

IOL PASS BLOCKING WIN RATE

1) JOE THUNEY- CHIEFS = 98%

2) LUKE WATTENBERG – BRONCOS = 98%

3) QUINN MEINERZ – BRONCOS = 97%

4) TYLER LINDERBAUM – RAVENS = 97%

5) BEN POWERS – BRONCOS = 96%

6) CREED HUMPHREY – CHIEFS = 96%

7) CAM JURGENS – EAGLES = 95%

8) CONNOR MCGOVERN- BILLS = 95%

9) ZACH FRAZIER – STEELERS = 95%

    10) PATRICK MEKARI- RAVENS = 95%

                11) TYLER BIADASZ- COMMANDERS = 95%

OT RUN BLOCK WIN RATE

1) ROGER ROSENGARTEN- RAVENS = 84%

2) LANE JOHNSON – EAGLES = 80%

3) ROB HAVENSTEIN – RAMS = 79%

4) BRANDON COLEMAN- COMMANDERS = 79%

5) CORNELIUS LUCAS – COMMANDERS = 79%

6) RASHAWN SLATER – CHARGERS = 79%

IOL RUN BLOCK WIN RATE

1) BEN POWERS- BRONCOS = 78%

2) SAM COSMI- COMMANDERS = 75%

3) TREY SMITH – CHIEFS = 75%

4) ISAAC SEUMALO – STEELERS = 75%

 

 

NFL WIN RATES BY TEAM & RANKED BY BEST AVERAGE PERCENTAGE

 

1) DEN = PRWR 46% (2^ND), RSWR 32% (8^TH), PBWR 74% (1^ST), RBWR 75% (1^ST)

2)MIN= PRWR 46%(4^TH), RSWR 33% (4^TH), PBWR 70% (2^ND), RBWR 72% (15^TH)

3) PHI= PRWR 43%(8^TH), RSWR 33% (3^RD), PBWR 67% (6^TH), RBWR 72% (9^TH)

4) BUF= PRWR 45%(6^TH), RSWR 33% (5^TH), PBWR 68% (4^TH), RBWR 71% (17^TH)

5) WAS= PRWR 43%(7^TH), RSWR 30%(23^RD), PBWR 66%(9^TH), RBWR 74%(2^ND)

6) PIT=PRWR 46%(3^RD), RSWR 30%(17^TH), PBWR 62%(13^TH), RBWR 71%(24^TH)

7) TB= PRWR 42% (11^TH), RSWR 27% (31^ST), PBWR 68% (5^TH), RBWR 73% (6^TH)

8)LAC=PRWR 37%(22^ND), RSWR 32%(7^TH), PBWR 65%(11^TH), RBWR72%(13^TH)

9) KC = PRWR 37% (19^TH), RSWR 30%(21^ST), PBWR 67%(8^TH), RBWR 73% (7^TH)

10)HOU=PRWR 49%(1^ST), RSWR 34%(2^ND),PBWR 58%(22^ND),RBWR 68%(31^ST)

11)BAL=PRWR 33%(29^TH), RSWR 30%(22^ND),PBWR 70%(3^RD), RBWR 74%(3^RD)

12)LA=PRWR 37%(18^TH),RSWR 32%(11^TH),PBWR 59%(20^TH), RBWR72%(12^TH)

13)GB=PRWR 35% (26^TH), RSWR 33%(6^TH), PBWR 67%(7^TH), RBWR 71% (23^RD)

14)DET=PRWR 35% (25^TH),RSWR 30% (19^TH),PBWR 64% (12^TH),RBWR 72% (16^TH)

TOP TEN DEFENSES

 

TOP TEN OFFENSES

 

AFC NORTH REVIEW

 

CLEVELAND BROWNS – 3-13

        Cleveland seemed like a team that could’ve potentially surprised some people coming into the season.  Many had hoped that Deshaun Watson would return to how he had once performed as the Houston Texans quarterback before all his off-field issues.  That was not even close to the case for him, or this miserable Browns franchise this season, thus now they are looking at next season hoping that Watson can at the very least stay healthy.  Watson hasn’t been able to play a full season yet for the Browns, which is one of the reasons why they went ahead and restructured the quarterback’s contract.  Now if they were to cut ties with Deshaun, they would accrue a dead cap of $119 million after June 1^st.  This team still possesses a huge threat on defense, along with a lot of talent coming from their skilled positions such as their wideouts, tight ends, and running backs.  This is a loaded division with the likes of the Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers, though the Browns could be right in the thick of things if they could just get consistent average or better play from their quarterback.

 

CINCINNATI BENGALS – 8-8

        The Bengals are certainly not out of the playoff discussion for this year just yet.  Tomorrow is their biggest game of the season and will tell us whether they’ll still potentially have a shot to make it in, though, even with a victory they will still have to wait until the Dolphins and Broncos games come to an end before they get clearance on their postseason hopes.  Joe Burrow is creating a lot of controversy over who the MVP should be this year with his superb play this season.  The biggest part of the controversy is that the Bengals are on the cusp of not making it into the playoffs but at no fault to Burrow’s play or the offense in general.  Lou Anarumo, Cincy’s defensive coordinator, doesn’t have his defense at the same level of play as he did last year.  This is the main cause of the team’s issues this season, while also the complication in why Burrow is not the favorite to win the MVP.  Joe Burrow leads the league in passing yards (4,641 yards), completions & attempts (423, 606), yards per game (290.1 ypg), and touchdowns (42).  He is also second in QBR with 76.7 and has the third-best QB rating this season (109.8).

        Cincinnati may possess the best offense in NFL history to not make the playoffs come Sunday night.  What they have achieved this year on that side of the ball is ridiculous.  We know how great Burrow is but the crazy thing about this offense is that they didn’t seem to miss a beat even when they were without starting wide receiver Tee Higgins for a handful of games.  How could they have so much success without their 1B wideout?  Easy, they still have Ja’Marr Chase, a clear top three wideout since he came into the NFL.  Don’t believe he’s the cream of the crop?  Chase is atop the list in basically every category that exists for the statistical production of his position!  The man is first in receptions (117 rec), receiving yards (1,612 yards), touchdowns (16 TDs), yards per game (100.8 ypg), yards after the catch (761 yac), and first-down receptions (71 FD).

        Zac Taylor and Burrow have the Bengals on a five-game winning streak as of late.  Another win for Cincy this week over the Pittsburgh Steelers would not only help themselves in a major way by staying alive in the hunt for January football but would also help the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North.  If the Bengals were to make the playoffs one would think that Burrow would then become the clear favorite for this year's MVP.  Ja’Marr Chase is also playing for a historic accomplishment, the WR triple crown.  The last time any wideout finished the regular season as the leading receiver in yards, receptions, and touchdowns was Cooper Kupp in 2021.  There have only been four wideouts that have achieved this feat (Kupp in 21, Steve Smith in 2005, Sterling Sharp in 1992, and Jerry Rice in 1990) Chase will become the fifth.  In this, the last game of the regular season, on the road the Bengals are the odds-on favorite (-2.5) against a recently sliding Pittsburgh Steelers team.

 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS – 10-6

        The black & gold or black & yellow Steelers have had a very interesting season so far.  Mike Tomlin has long proven his worth to the city of steel and the rest of the NFL, having never ended a season with a losing record.  He once again showed just how great of a head coach he is this year, recording a record of 10-6 with one more week remaining in the regular season and a chance to win the AFC North with another win this week.  Pittsburgh has a long history of marching out some of the very best defenses the NFL has ever had, this year is no different.  The problem with the Steelers has been their offense, particularly since the retirement of future Hall of Fame QB Ben Roethlisberger.  This season Tomlin wanted to solve the team’s typical reason for a lack of success in the past couple of years, the quarterback position.  With a pair of savvy moves in the offseason coach Tomlin along with General Manager Omar Khan brought in two previous starting QBs from last season to attempt to fix those issues.  Both Justin Fields and Russell Wilson have shown adequate play as the Steelers starters, though it was rather clear that Wilson gave them more upside in the short term to compete with the high-powered offenses that their divisional foes possess.

        While Tomlin is certainly in the running for the COTY award, they also have a top DPOTY favorite in T.J. Watt.  This version of the Steelers' defense may not be the “Steel Curtain” though they are still one of the best defensive units in the league.  Watt is just one of the reasons why they are in that small group of elite units leaguewide.  Another player who has been a game wrecker who doesn’t get nearly enough credit is veteran defensive tackle Cam Heyward.  He is now 35 years old, in his 14^th season yet has played like someone with half his wear & tear.  They have playmakers all over this defense like safety Mikah Fitzpatrick, linebackers Alex Highsmith, and ex-Raven Patrick Queen.  Pittsburgh received great news as it has been reported that they will get their starting cornerback Joey Porter Jr. back for this divisional game in a must-win matchup.  Teryl Austin’s defense has been rolling on all cylinders this season and looks ready for the challenge against this incredibly talented Cincinnati Bengals offense on Saturday Night.  The Steelers are currently breathing rare air in a three-game losing streak, though they have already clinched a playoff spot they still have a Division Championship on the line.  Knowing the type of head coach Mike Tomlin is he doesn’t just want this one for potentially taking the AFC North title, but also to make a statement ahead of their playoff game.  Those that may be quick to think the Bengals will walk into Pittsburgh, bully them around in their stadium, and walk out with a win, let me just remind you that these Steelers already beat the Bengals in Cincy back in week 13 when they put 44 points up on the Bengals.  

 

BALTIMORE RAVENS – 11-5

        Baltimore is in a rather sticky situation heading into their final week of the season.  They currently sit in third place in the AFC and even though they cannot move up in the rankings they can certainly wind up moving back.  Usually, you wouldn’t exactly want to go into your last regular season game playing your starters, but the Ravens haven’t locked up the AFC North yet with those pesky Pittsburgh Steelers on their tails.  The Ravens lost to the Browns back in week eight and had it not been for that loss they would be able to rest all their starters for their next week’s matchup which has yet to be determined.  Baltimore has one more win than Pittsburgh but the same division record which is why they need to make sure they come out of this week with a win.  If they were to come up short to the Browns and their QB Bailey Zappe, who was named their week 18 starter just a day ago, well then, the late game between the Bengals and Steelers would become all that more interesting.

          When it comes to this year's MVP you can take your pick, Saquon Barkley, Josh Allen, Jared Goff, and possibly even Joe Burrow (if they make the playoffs) but I think that Lamar Jackson should still be heavily involved in those discussions as well.  I understand Lamar won the award last season, though he has already topped his numbers from last year’s season-long performance.  Jackson may be ranked 5^th in passing yards as we approach week 18, though the man is averaging more yards per pass than any other QB while also pacing the league in both passer rating (121.6) and QBR (78.0).  He has also thrown 39 touchdowns (tied for 2^nd) and just 4 interceptions.  There has only been one season-long starter that has thrown fewer picks this season (Justin Herbert, 3 INTs).  In addition to his passing don’t forget Lamar has also done some damage to the ground. Baltimore’s quarterback has scored another 4 TDs, rushing for 852 yards (21^st in rushing yards) while averaging 6.6 yards per rush (the best average among any player who’s attempted at least 130 or more runs).

         Baltimore should get an easy win this week and you’d think they will have a large enough lead after the first half so they can at least rest their starters for the second half of their game.  With a win over the Browns, the Ravens will lock up the AFC North with another division title regardless of the outcome of the Steelers game.  If this ends up being the case, then Baltimore will host either the Chargers or the Steelers in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs.  The Ravens end the regular season tomorrow at home against Cleveland and are the heavy favorites (-19.5) ahead of their 4:30 PM ET kickoff.  

TOP TEN TIGHT ENDS

 

NFC NORTH STARS

 

        The Green Bay Packers accomplished something last Monday night that no other team has been able to pull off this year.  For the first time this season, a team was shut out.  It isn’t particularly surprising, the Packers have a good defense plus the New Orleans were missing their QB, running back, both of their starting receivers, their swiss army knife (Taysom Hill) plus a handful of other starters.  It was the first time the Saints had been shut out in over two decades.  Minnesota was also victorious last week in a game with a hungry Seattle Seahawks group.  The Vikings were in charge for most of that game, but Seattle did make it interesting late in the fourth quarter when their offense started to come to life.  Geno marched his guys down the field on an 11-play drive, taking up over six minutes of the clock in the process.  Sixty-eight yards later Smith threw a touchdown that would put them up by four points, leaving only four minutes and twenty-one seconds remaining.  On the ensuing drive, Sam Darnold showed us once again how potent this Vikings offense can be as it only took thirty seconds on four plays to go 70 yards for another score. (Vikings B. Murphy was penalized on a face mask hold for 15 yards).  Seattle got the ball once more, and tried a 60-yard field goal, but ultimately missed.

 

        Jordan Love has propelled the Pack to 11 wins already this season.  They could potentially end the season as one of only a few teams to ever win 13 games yet not win their division.  If you think that sounds weird how about the fact that they could also wind up as the third-best team in the North?  Yeah, crazy. That’s just how darn good this NFC North group of teams have been this year.  History shows that there have never been three 13-win teams within the same division.  When the Packers met the Vikings earlier this season the Vikings got the best of the Packers, winning 31-29.  The turnovers are what played the biggest role in the end the first time around, Green Bay had four, while Minnesota had three.  Matt LaFleur could only watch as his offense went scoreless in two of the first three-quarters of the game.  Then Love almost brought them all the way back for a win as the cheese heads cheered their Packers on as they scored 22 points in the fourth quarter, but to no avail still losing by two points. 

 

PACKERS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 27.5 (7^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 377.3 (4^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 147.3 (4^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 230.1 (12^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 16 (2^ND)

 

PACKERS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 19.1 (6^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 312.1 (6^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 102.5 (8^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 209.7 (9^TH)

TOTAL SACKS-  43 (6^TH)

 

        Minnesota hasn’t just been one of the best teams in the entire league this year but is also silently attempting to do something that no one could’ve foreseen coming.  Kevin O’Connell has had his team in a great position all season long to contend for the NFC North Championship.  With a win this week, they can do just that heading into a week 18 game against one of the league's best offenses in their number one rivals, the Detroit Lions.  Many thought that Sam Darnold couldn’t become a true franchise quarterback after his tenure with the New York Jets.  Though in hindsight if we knew then what we know now in terms of the Jets franchise and how it has been run for years we would have been a little less critical of Sam. 

        The Vikings beat the Packers in their prior meeting during their 5-game win streak.  They have only lost two games so far this season and both losses came after that win streak.  The first was against the Lions, 31-29 and the other loss was to the Rams in Los Angeles 30-20.  Since the second loss in week 8 Minnesota hasn’t lost another game, winning 8 straight games.  It is almost unthinkable with how great the Lions and Eagles have been this year that the Vikings still have a very good chance of locking up the number one seed in the NFC.  They hold their destiny in their hands.  Two more wins and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs plus the additional bye week before playing a postseason game.

 

VIKINGS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 26.4 (9^TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 346.3 (12^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 111.1 (16^TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 235.3 (8^TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 46 (24^TH)

 

VIKINGS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 18.4 (3^RD)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 335.8 (16^TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 87.1 (2^ND)

PASS YARDS P/G- 248.7 (30^TH)

TOTAL SACKS – 44 (5^TH)

 

        This will be a very tough game to try and predict.  They are evenly matched on the offensive side of the ball.  Even the defenses are comparable, the one big difference I can see is against the opposing team's passing.  Green Bay allows 209 yards in passing yards (9^th) while Minnesota is conceding an average of 248 yards (30^th) a contest.  It makes sense that the Vikings are giving up the 30^th most pass yards a game when you think about how Brian Flores's (MIN DC) defense leads the league in QB pressures on both 1^st and 3^rd downs.  One of the key matchups I will be looking for is Josh Jacobs vs. the Vikings 16^th 16th-ranked rush defense.  The other one is rather obvious, Vikings' one-two receiving threat in Jefferson & Addison going up against Green Bay defensive backs.  Especially now that the Packers will be without their top cornerback Jaire Alexander after being ruled out with a knee injury.  I am leaning toward the -1.5-point favorites, the 13-2 Minnesota Vikings at home.