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1/24/25

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP – ALLEN VS. MAHOMES PT. IV

                This is hardly unfamiliar territory for these two teams. This matchup, which every NFL fan has either dreamt of or dreaded, will become the deciding game for one franchise's chance to play at the pinnacle of the sport.  These Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes playoff games are now becoming a regularity many fans may look forward to, bringing a classic Brady vs. Manning-esque back to the NFL.  This game will be the fourth time in five years that these two star quarterbacks will face off in the postseason.  Although this has happened almost routinely, this will only be the second time they’ve squared off in the AFC Championship.  The first time they played each other in the Conference Round of the Playoffs the outcome was much like most of the games when these two goliaths clash.  A great deal of offense accompanied by plenty of points.

               Patrick Mahomes is already widely known as a G.O.A.T., yet he is only in his eighth season as a pro.  We are only two years removed from Tom Brady’s illustrious and rare career, though it seems that the face of the NFL isn’t even close to suffering from its loss.  What Mahomes has been able to do in just seven seasons as the Kansas City Chiefs starter is unlike anything we’ve ever seen in all sports history.  This Sunday evening the Chiefs QB will start in his seventh AFC Championship tying Joe Montana for the second most starts of any quarterback in a Championship game.  This is especially impressive as it took Montana fifteen or fourteen and a half seasons (Montana didn’t become the Niners starter until halfway through his second season) to achieve what Mahomes has already done in half the amount of time.  Even Tom Brady who played in fourteen (most all-time) Conference Championship games didn’t reach such a feat until his twelfth year into his career.  Calling the Kansas City Chiefs a dynasty is only fair as the past few NFL seasons concluded with Andy Reid’s team not just winning two consecutively but also representing the American Football Conference in the last five out of six Super Bowls.

                Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was not supposed to be here.  In many people's eyes, Allen would never become an elite QB1.  He knew deep down that he’d always be a professional athlete, but early on Allen played multiple sports.  The quarterback was also his high school's leading scorer on the basketball team plus a pitcher for the baseball team and could throw 90 mph fastballs.  It was Allens' determination that got him every step of the way.  His story as a football player didn’t start until his cousin's husband (a football assistant coach for Reedley College in 2014) assumably helped him get a chance as the school's starting quarterback.  Within his first season at Reedley Allen proved to be a more than competent starter plus he had grown two inches in height while also gaining thirty pounds.  After a great year, he figured his gameplay would gain some noise enabling cumulative offers from FBS colleges, but to no avail.

                Then after multiple failed attempts at his goal of getting into a Division I program, Josh wound up on Wyoming's radar garnering himself a scholarship there.  He ended up starting two seasons at Wyoming in three years then declared for the NFL draft upon the completion of the 2017 season.  Though Josh was drafted by the Buffalo Bills and was believed to be their eventual starting QB, a lot of criticism came with the start of his career in Orchard Park, New York.  The star passer was seemingly more of just a runner of the ball, frequently turning the ball over by throwing 21 Interceptions to just 30 touchdowns over his first two years in Buffalo.  However, the California native changed that exact narrative proving to the entire world that he is an elite passer just as much as a winning quarterback, taking Buffalo to back-to-back playoff appearances in his first three seasons as a pro.  Much like Mahomes, Allen has become a recurring theme in the postseason, making it there every year since his second season.  He holds a current playoff record of 7-5 and has propelled the Bills to at least the Divisional Round five straight years. 

            This Mahomes-Allen storied rivalry stretches back to October 19th of the 2020 season, the sole time Kansas City had beaten Buffalo in the regular season during the Mahomes era.  Mahomes may have an undefeated playoff record against the Bills with Josh Allen under center (Mahomes 3-0 vs. Allen), but the roles have been reversed when they play one another from September to early January (Allen 4-1 vs. Mahomes).  This may not seem like a popular thing to say because of how their playoff matchups have heavily favored the Chiefs, peculiarly with one team attempting a first-ever three-peat title defense, though with a total of eight meetings between this exact rivalry, this game is going to be the tiebreaker.  In an ironic twist, perhaps we should dive back into the NFL history books to look at the 1990-1993 playoffs.  These were the years that the Buffalo Bills went to four straight Super Bowls, losing all four.  Why bring this up?   To optimistically predict that this, being the fourth time, the Bills and Chiefs superstar quarterbacks playing each other could potentially reverse Bills Mafia's fortunes from their historic four-year letdown.  Will the fourth time be the charm and end Buffalo’s curse of their quad deficiencies?

            Sunday's game should be more of an evenly matched battle than you may think.  The offensive struggles for KC could fare well for Buffalo if Joe Brady’s offense gets off to a great start, while the Bills defense has also had their difficulties this season.  However, Bobby Babich (Buffalo’s DC) has had some starters return to the lineup which has certainly helped them in the past couple of weeks regain cohesiveness in their unit.  Steve Spagnuolo is also coaching a good defense as well.  The Chiefs have had one of the strongest defenses in all of football this year and will be ready for the task ahead plus they have become accustomed to playing Josh Allen over the last four seasons.  The best way for Buffalo to dissect the Spagnuolo-coached unit would be for Allen to utilize his tight ends early and often.  Matt Nagy should be pushing Mahomes to try to roll out of the pocket and force the ball to the outside weapons with a full complement of healthy receivers at his disposal now that Juju Smith-Schuster and Hollywood Brown are back in the lineup.  Another reason they should probably consider bootlegs and rollout packages is to cater to the inadequacies of his offensive tackles.  This could be a massive development for their offense in addition to the emergence of the rookie wideout Xavier Worthy alongside the obvious superstars in Kelce and Hopkins.  Bills will walk into Arrowhead Stadium as +1.5 underdogs on Sunday at 6:30 PM.


1/12/25

GREEN BAY VS. PHILLY – HURTS CITY OF LOVE

 

         The 2024 NFL season started with a Packers vs. Eagles game, and for one of these two teams, it will come full circle in ending with this game.  Green Bay has had a great season winning 11 games which in most divisions would probably win you the division title and give you a home game in the playoffs.  However, not in the NFC North, the Packers unfortunately must compete with the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions who both won over 13 games this season.  Philadelphia ended the regular season 14-3 and beat the Green Bay Packers in week one in Sao Paolo, Brazil.  Green Bay leads the all-time series between these franchises 28-19, while the Eagles have won 3 of the last 4 matchups of the series.

           

            The Packers' head coach Matt LaFleur has been with Green Bay since 2019.  Since LaFleur’s arrival, he has coached against the Eagles four times, only successfully beating them once.  Under LaFleur, the Packers have a 3-4 record in the postseason, 1-2 on the road, and have lost their only game in Philadelphia since LaFleur has been there.  Quarterback Jordan Love comes into this game banged up with an elbow injury along with now relief from numbness in his throwing hand.  Love is a full go for tomorrow afternoon, however, his top threat on the outside Christian Watson is out.  Jordan has played the Eagles twice, one of which was in Philadelphia, and has yet to come away triumphant.  During his two games against the Birds, he’s played very well, throwing for 373 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, and has a QBR of 96.4.  Packers’ leading rusher Josh Jacobs was one of the best runners in the league this season, rushing for over 1,300 yards (6th among all running backs) and just shy of 1,700 total yards from scrimmage (5th most league-wide).  Jacobs scored a total of 15 touchdowns (4th), was second in broken tackles (35), and is second-best to only Derrick Henry in yards after contact (737 yards) this year.

            Green Bay is one of the premier organizations in all of football with a prestigious history.  This franchise has won the most Championships in the NFL and boasts a 37-26 all-time playoff record.  Packer Nation is no stranger to matching up against Philly in their playoff history as they’ve met 3 times with Green Bay winning the last one in the City of Brotherly Love (2010, Packers 21 @ Eagles 16).  I’ve said a lot about the offense, but you know the old saying, “Defense wins championships” and Jeff Hafley, the defensive coordinator for the Pack has his unit as the 6th best scoring defense.  They are ceding 19.9 pts per game this season, allowing the 5th least yards per game, and rank as the 6th best defense against the run.  Green Bay’s pass-rush-win-rate (35% - 26th) may not have the greatest matchup against Philly’s pass-block-win-rate (67%- 6th), though they do possess the 8th ranked defensive unit in sacks (45).

 

PACKERS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 27.1 (8TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 370.5 (5TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 146.8 (5TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 223.6 (12TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 22 (2ND)

 

PACKERS DEFENS

POINTS PER GAME- 19.9 (6TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 314.5 (5TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 99.4 (7TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 215.2 (13TH)

TOTAL SACKS- 45 (8TH)

 

            Philadelphia comes into this game riding high as winners of their last seven at home.  The Birds scored an average of 26.3 points per game during that streak.  Jalen Hurts just cleared the concussion protocol this past Wednesday after missing the past two weeks of all football activity.  Those who think Hurts may be rusty from missing so much time could wind up looking silly on Sunday afternoon.  Hurts is one of the best versatile quarterbacks the league has to offer and is the engine that makes this Eagles offense work.  During his NFL career, the QB has competed against the Packers three times, winning two of those matchups.  In his games against them, he has totaled 540 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and has a 84.3 QBR.  When these teams last met in September Jalen threw for 278 yards, 2 TDs, and had 2 INTs along with a fumble.  Their week one game proved to be the Eagles' worst this season in turnovers as they gave the ball away three times.

            The Eagles have plenty of weapons at their quarterback's disposal such as one of the top wideout combos in the league led by A.J. Brown, plus a godsend running back in Saquon Barkley.  The latter, Saquon Barkley just had one of the best seasons of any player in league history.  Barkley became only the fourth rusher in NFL history to total 2,000 or more scrimmage yards in a season with multiple teams after accumulating 2,283 yards in his first year with Philadelphia. (Eric Dickerson, Marshall Faulk, and Christian McCaffrey also accomplished this) He also owns a 3-1 record over the Packers in his career and has piled up 348 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 11 catches for 106 receiving yards when going against them.  During Nick Sirianni’s tenure as Philly’s coach, they are 2-3 in the postseason but on the bright side, the Eagles are also 2-0 when hosting playoff games.

EAGLES OFFENSE:

TOTAL POINTS P/G- 27.2 (7TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 367.2 (8TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 179.3 (2ND)

PASS YARDS P/G- 187.2 (29TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 45 (20TH)

 

EAGLES DEFENSE:

TOTAL POINTS P/G- 17.8 (2ND)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 278.4 (1ST)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 104.2 (10TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 174.2 (1ST)

TOTAL SACKS- 41 (T-13TH)

 

            In conclusion, this is a rematch of the week one international game in which the Eagles won 34-29.  A.J. Brown had a huge day gathering 5 receptions for 119 and a TD in addition to Saquon Barkley’s 3 TDs.  Sirianni owns a 2-0 record against Matt LaFleur which boasts well for Philly, but on the other hand as a franchise, they hold an all-time playoff record of 25-26.  Packers’ passer Jordan Love didn’t have a bad game in week one before his injury as he threw 2 TDs on 260 yards with 1 INT, while his backfield mate Josh Jacobs accounted for over 100 total yards.  Winning on the road in the opening round of the playoffs is nothing new to the Packers, they took down the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th seed last year before falling victim to a better San Fransico 49ers team in the divisional round.  My expectation for this matchup is that the more productive team in the ground game should come away with the win.  When attacking the Eagles in the passing game, the Packers must target tight end Tucker Kraft, especially without top wideout Christian Watson.  Fangio’s defense is the best against the pass with one of the most talented groups of defensive backs in the league.  Green Bay is +4.5 underdogs though I would take my chances laying the points with the strong defense along with the prowess of the Eagles running game.

1/10/25

WILD CARD ROUND - DENVER BRONCOS VS. BUFFALO BILLS

 

            Don’t look now but the Denver Broncos are in the playoffs for the first time since hoisting their third Lombardi Trophy in 2015.  The Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix outplayed all expectations along with all other rookie quarterbacks, not named Jayden Daniels.  Credit to Nix, though a lot of his success was because of one of the best offensive-minded coaches the NFL has seen in head coach Sean Payton.  This Sunday afternoon Payton will be coaching on the opposite sideline of an old foe Sean McDermott, who coached against Payton twice a year for six years (2011-2016) when he was the Carolina Panthers defensive coordinator.  McDermott holds a 3-1 record when coaching against the Denver Broncos, while Sean Payton is 3-1 all-time against the Buffalo Bills.  Payton is only in his second season as the Broncos coach, though he did square off against McDermott's squad last year, dramatically coming away with the win in Buffalo on a Monday Night game.

 

            The Denver Broncos have been a solid team this year.  They beat the teams they were expected to beat, yet lost to the top-tier teams, leaving a lot to be desired.  They played five playoff teams in the regular season this year and beat two of them, defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in week 3 (26-7), then they beat the Kansas City Chiefs backups last week at home 38-0.  The Broncos' point differential in losses against playoff opponents that are not named the Baltimore Ravens this season is -23 points.  Keep in mind both the Chiefs and the Chargers are also in the postseason; Denver plays both teams twice a year thus the Broncos played 7 games against top-tier teams.  This means they have had an average point differential of just -5.75 in their 4 losses to the Steelers, Chiefs, and Chargers.

            Sean Payton comes into this matchup as a 4-1 underdog against the spread in his career in the postseason for all the bettors out there.  The Broncos have a record of 3-2 when playing against teams in the east this season and are one of only two teams that have been able to beat the Bills in Buffalo in the last calendar year.  Buffalo has been perfect at home this season but lost to the Chiefs at home in the playoffs last year along with losing to the Broncos at home in the regular season on the night when the clip of the Bills' old OC Ken Dorsey went viral after becoming irate and throwing his clipboard amongst other things in the press box.  That night last season with little to no offense that was provided by Broncos ex-QB Russell Wilson, and a less impressive defense somehow came away with a 24-22 victory on a Monday Night.  In Denver’s history, they have not matched up all that well against the Bills, losing 23 games and winning 17.  The two teams have only played once in the playoffs, the Bills winning in the 1992 AFC Championship game.  Ironically of those 17 wins the Broncos have had against them, 12 of them came in Buffalo. (Denver has won 44.4% of the games they’ve played in Buffalo)

 

BRONCOS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 25.0 (10TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 324.6 (19TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 112.6 (16TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 212.4 (20TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 24 (3RD)

 

BRONCOS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 18.3 (3RD)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 317.1 (7TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 96.4 (3RD)

PASS YARDS P/G- 220.7 (19TH)

TOTAL SACKS- 63 (1ST)

 

            Buffalo seems to be a team primed to make a deep postseason run this season.  They beat the Kansas City Chiefs this season, are undefeated at home, and only suffered one major loss this season (35-10 against Baltimore).  Josh Allen looks to be the most likely player to win the MVP this season and has had the most impressive season in his career.  Only five QBs have ever thrown for 20 + touchdowns while also rushing for 10 or more in the same season, Allen has now accomplished this feat twice in his career.  Think about it, the man placed 7th among QBs with 28 air touchdowns, yet he also finished the regular season ranked 9th in rushing TDs.  Josh Allen is an unbelievable all-around athlete, he accounted for the 4th most touchdowns (41) this season behind only Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Baker Mayfield.  Another notable mention would be that when facing blitzes Allen has been the 3rd-best QB with an outstanding passer rating of 123.2 this season.

            Sean McDermott has now been the Bills head coach for the last eight seasons.  During his tenure in Buffalo, he has coached the Bills to 11 playoff appearances with a record of 5-6.  Under Sean, they are 5-2 in home playoff games and 4-2 in the Wild Card Round.  A statistic that I have come across that I find intriguing is that when McDermott was the Panthers’ defensive coordinator, he held a 7-5 record against Sean Payton who was the New Orleans Saints head coach at the time.  Buffalo fans are expecting nothing less than a total route against the Broncos; however, they seemingly match up very well with Buffalo, at least on paper.  Buffalo has more experience in the playoffs, certainly with some of the veteran players on their roster.  Denver has more younger players and I think most of their locker room, including their veterans, have never experienced a postseason game to this point in their careers.

 

BILLS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 30.9 (2ND)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 359.1 (10TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 131.2 (9TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 227.9 (9TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 14 (1ST)

 

BILLS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 21.6 (11TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 341.5 (17TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 115.5 (12TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 226.1 (24TH)

TOTAL SACKS- 39 (18TH)

 

            In conclusion, Denver leads the league in sacks (63), though Buffalo also leads the league in allowing the least sacks this season (14).  If Buffalo’s O-line can’t hold up against the Broncos that will cause major havoc in their offensive game plan and could lead to a major upset for Bills mafia.  Vance Joseph’s defense is ranked 3rd against the run this season, but if they cannot stop James Cook and Allen then it will be a long day for the orange crush.  According to the ESPN.com team win rate rankings Denver is better than any other team playoff team among the categories of pass rush, run stop, pass block, and run block.  When comparing both rookie Bo Nix and Josh Allen in their past 8 games the similarities are a lot closer than people would imagine.  Bo has a completion % of 66.8, 240.5 pass ypg, 17-7 TD-INT, 96.6 passer rating, and has thrown for more yards and touchdowns than Allen this year.  Allen’s numbers: 63.1 completion %, 245.6 pass ypg, 14-5 TD-INT, and 96.1 passer rating.  Denver takes to the road in their first playoff game in over 8 years and comes into this one as an +8.5 underdog.  Buffalo will play host to the Broncos on Sunday at 1 PM and as a Broncos fan I will not say with certainty that they will get an upset, but I do think they can cover that line as they have only lost by more than 7 points just once this year.

PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE – THIRD TIMES THE CHARM

 

            The regular season has ended, and the fourteen best teams are on to postseason play.  Wild Card weekend has a full slate of great games, one of which will be a divisional matchup.  The Pittsburgh Steelers are making their second trip to Baltimore in three weeks.  Baltimore is playing at home for the fourth time in the past six weeks.  Mike Tomlin’s Steelers took the first game between these rivals, while John Harbaugh’s Ravens bested Russell Wilson and company in the second matchup.  Only one of these two teams will be heading into the Divisional Round of the Playoffs, thus the third time will be the charm for whoever comes away victorious.

 

            Pittsburgh is in unfamiliar territory losing four straight games en route to the playoffs.  Mike Tomlin, their leader and head coach of the last 18 years, is staring down the team that you’d assume he would least like to face in the opening round of the playoffs.  If the Steelers were to lose, we would witness something that has only happened twice before to a Tomlin-coached team, the Steelers losing five straight games.  Now I think everyone can understand what I mean when I say this Baltimore team is probably the last team coach Tomlin would want to see.  It’s not purely about the fact that Lamar has been playing better than either of his MVP seasons, it’s not because they have a 1,900 + yard rusher at 6’2”, 247lbs, or the fact that the Ravens possess the third-best scoring offense in the NFL.  The reality is that no team in the playoffs knows the Steelers as well as the Ravens do!  As I had previously alluded to in my article about the Steelers-Ravens most recent game, rivalry matchups are always the trickiest games to choose a victor for because they know each other’s tendencies so well that even the worst of teams can beat the best team in divisional environments.

             Pittsburgh has been 8-4 against Baltimore since 2019.  Verily, they are 36-26 all-time when matching up with the Ravens, including a 3-1 playoff record over their supreme rivals.  With that said there has been a lot of talk about the possibility of the Steelers playing backup quarterback Justin Fields in some capacity for this game.  Why would they move on from Wilson after replacing Fields in favor of Russell earlier this season?  Well, maybe this kind of talk derives from the Steelers’ four consecutive games of scoring 17 or fewer points, a streak their offense hasn’t fallen victim to since the 2003 season.  The credence that replacing Wilson with Fields could be the answer to an upset over Lamar Jackson doesn’t make sense to me.  Here’s why, with Fields as their starter in his six games, the Steelers averaged 20.6 points per game, while in Wilson’s eleven starts, they averaged 23.3 points a game.  Frankly, I don’t think it matters much who the starter is, though what could be the x-factor for this game is to game plan to have both men in the lineup.  Let me clarify my thoughts, I would like to see both quarterbacks play on Saturday night in Baltimore.  How about cooking up some packages where both Fields and Wilson are out there at the same time, I mean Justin Fields is an unbelievable athlete, and maybe have a few bubble screens for him, or some direct snaps to him to let him do what he does best, run!  Heck, I mean, you can also throw him the rock a few times, that’ll catch the defense off guard.    

              

STEELERS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 22.4 (16TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 319.4 (22ND)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 127.4 (11TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 192.0 (27TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 49 (23RD)

 

STEELERS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 20.4 (8TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 326.7 (12TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 98.7 (6TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 228.0 (25TH)

TOTAL SACKS- 40 (16TH)

 

            Baltimore has been red hot lately, winning four straight games, while winners of six of their last eight.  We all see how great the Ravens offense has been throughout the year, however, the recent turnaround on the defensive side of the ball is what caught my eye.  Over their last three games defensive coordinator Zach Orr has had his guys only surrender 9.6 points per game.  If you don’t think that’s saying a lot, let me remind you that two of their last three games were against playoff teams.  However, it gets even better because, since week 11 this revived defensive unit has only allowed an average of 15.4 points to their opponents.  Due to a knee injury, they will be without Jackson’s number-one target Zay Flowers.  I believe this offense still has more than enough firepower to get the job done even without Flowers in the lineup. 

Yes, the Ravens are just 1-3 all-time when facing Pittsburgh in the playoffs.  The funny thing about that is every single one of those games was played in Pittsburgh.  The last time they met in postseason play was in 2015, becoming the first time the Ravens bested them.  When looking at the ESPN.com list of Team Win Rate Rankings it is pretty clear that the Steelers are the better team in the trenches with their o-line matchup against the Ravens’ d-line as their run-block-win-rate is better than Baltimore’s run-stop-win-rate, and their pass-block-win-rate is also better than the Ravens pass-rush-win-rate.  At the same time, the Ravens are second in the league in sacks, Pittsburgh has allowed 49 sacks (23rd), and in terms of the run game, the Steelers are producing the 11th-best rushing offense against the Ravens’ league-leading run defense. 

 

RAVENS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 30.5 (3RD)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 424.9 (1ST)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 187.6 (1ST)

PASS YARDS P/G- 237.4 (7TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 24 (4TH)

 

RAVENS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 21.2 (9TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 324.2 (10TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 80.1 (1ST)

PASS YARDS P/G- 244.1 (31ST)

TOTAL SACKS- 54 (2ND)

 

            In conclusion, it is clear the better offense belongs to the Ravens, while the better defense is Pittsburgh.  If the Steelers allow 20 or more rushes to Derrick Henry, they’re in trouble, as the Ravens are undefeated this season when Henry accomplishes just that.  Another statistic in favor of the Ravens is that Tomlin hasn’t won a road playoff game since 2016 and is just 2-5 in playoff postseason games in totality.  Tomlin is a great head coach but has struggled throughout his career in the playoffs with a record of 8-10 all-time.  Harbaugh is 12-10 in his playoff career and 3-3 as the home team.  The last thing I will say is that as great as Lamar Jackson is, he has a 2-4 record against the Steelers since becoming the Ravens quarterback.  Heading into this Wild Card game on Saturday at 8 PM, Baltimore is -9.5 favorites at home.  For Lamar Jackson to solidify himself as one of the greatest at the quarterback position, it is imperative for the Ravens to come out victorious.

1/09/25

TOP TEN RUNNING BACKS

 




MY TOP 20 OVERLOOKED DEFENSIVE PLAYERS OF 2024

 

20) DONTE JACKSON- CB – PIT

5 INTS, 28 SOLO, 38 TK, 8 PD, 2 TFL, 1 FR

 

19) MILTON WILLIAMS- DT- PHI

5 SACK, 6.5 STF, 24 TK, 13 AST, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PD

 

18) REED BLANKENSHIP- S- PHI

4 INT, 6 PD, 52 SOLO, 78 TK, 1 FR

 

17) JACK JONES- CB- LV

16 PD, 52 SOLO, 69 TK, 3 INT, 1 TD, 4.5 STF

 

16) GENO STONE- S- CIN

4 INT, 1 TD, 6 PD, 1 FR, 81 TK, 47 SOLO

 

15) TRAVON WALKER- DE- JAC

10.5 SACK, 8 STF, 2 FF, 1 FR, 31 SOLO, 61 TK, 1 PD

 

14) BRANDON JONES- S- DEN

115 TK, 79 SOLO, 3 INT, 10 PD, 1 FF, 1 FR, 2 TFL

 

13) ODAFE OWEH- LB- BAL

10 SACK, 9.5 STF, 1 FR, 25 SOLO, 39 TK

 

12) CODY BARTON- LB- DEN

106 TK, 53 SOLO, 2 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 TD, 1.5 SACK, 5 PD, 2 TFL

 

11) DEREK STINGLEY JR.- CB- HOU

18 PD, 5 STF, 5 INT, 37 SOLO, 54 TK

 

10) NICK CROSS- S- IND

146 TK, 87 SOLO, 1 SACK, 1 FF, 3 INT, 5 PD, 4 STF

 

9) JONATHON COOPER- EDGE- DEN

10.5 SACK, 33 SOLO, 11 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PD

 

8) E.J SPEED- LB- IND

142 TK, 93 SOLO, 7 TFL, 5 PD, 1 INT

 

7) KYZIR WHITE- LB- ARI

137 TK, 60 SOLO, 2.5 SACK, 9 TFL, 1 INT, 3 PD, 1 FR


6) DAIYAN HENLEY- LB- LAC

147 TK, 84 SOLO, 1 SACK, 7 TFL, 8 PD, 1 INT

 

5) ANDREW VAN GINKEL- LB- MIN

11.5 SACK, 79 TK, 50 SOLO, 18 TFL, 6 PD, 2 INT, 2 TD, 1 FF

 

4) JAMIEN SHERWOOD- LB- NYJ

158 TK, 98 SOLO, 2 SACK, 10 TFL, 3 PD

 

3) ROBERT SPILLANE- LB- LV

158 TK, 91 SOLO, 2 SACK, 10 TFL, 2 INT, 7 PD

 

2) BUDDA BAKER- S- ARI

164 TK, 95 SOLO, 2 SACK, 10 TFL, 5 PD, 1 FF

 

1)     ZAIRE FRANKLIN- LB- IND

173 TK, 93 SOLO, 3.5 SACK, 11 TFL, 2 INT, 6 PD, 5 FF

1/08/25

NFL PLAYOFFS WILD CARD RD – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

 

            After a masterful first season as the Los Angeles Chargers head coach, Jim Harbaugh yet again finds himself back in the NFL Playoffs.  It also seems like it worked out perfectly for Jim and his team, they’re gearing up to play the weakest divisional champs the AFC has to offer this year, the Houston Texans.  The Chargers are a whopping 6-3 against the Texans all-time, 4-1 in Houston.  Harbaugh hasn’t coached against the Texans much in his entire head coaching career.  He has seen them a total of four times while coaching the Niners, three of those games were pre-season games in which he went 1-2.  The only regular season game where he coached against the Houston Texans was in 2013 when San Fran scorched them 34-3.        

           

            The Chargers have a huge opportunity this weekend to show the rest of the league exactly what the Jim Harbaugh experience is all about!  I don’t think many thought that the Chargers would be here already, regardless of how great of a coach Jim is.  I know I had them down as a Playoff team for next season, but not now.  It is largely because of players such as quarterback Justin Herbert’s phenomenal play paired with a breakout rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey.  They also had a big year out of (often hurt) J.K. Dobbins’ running back.  Dobbins did miss some time this season though luckily he didn’t suffer any serious injuries this season and hopefully will remain healthy for their playoff run.

            Greg Roman’s offensive scheme didn’t exactly warrant top-ten numbers in any statistical category in year one, however, when you have Justin Herbert throwing the ball you can never count him out.  In the playoffs, they will be matched up against a good defense that has been one of the best against the pass this year.  What is more intriguing about this game will be the defensive play of the Chargers against Houston’s offense.  I will be the battle of the big men up front.  The Chargers are ranked 6th in sacks this season (46) while the Texans rank 29th in sacks allowed (54).  This may sound odd given that Houston’s offensive line has been abysmal at pass blocking, but I’m anticipating the Chargers' defense to have more of an issue against the pass than the Texans' run game.  The Chargers are the 7th best at run-stop-win-rate, while the Texans run-block-win-rate is the second worst in the league this year.

 

CHARGERS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 23.6 (11TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 324.2 (20TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 110.7 (17TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 213.5 (19TH)

SACKS ALLOWED- 44 (19TH)

 

CHARGERS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 17.7 (1ST)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 324.4 (11TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 117.5 (14TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 206.9 (7TH)

TOTAL SACKS – 46 (6TH)

 

            Houston hasn’t looked great this year especially considering how good they played just a year ago.  If you are thinking maybe second-year QB C.J. Stroud had a sophomore slump?  No, it’s not that at all.  Technically, he did regress with his production from his rookie performance (4,108 yards, 23TDs, 5 INTs in 2023; 3,727 yards, 20TDs, 12INTs in 2024) though he has been sacked the second most of any QB this season. (Houston allowed 54 sacks) Furthermore, all three of his top wideouts were injured this season plus the O-line has played awful this year.  I don’t blame Stroud or OC Bobby Slowik for the rapid change of this team's outlook, I blame the men up front for the Texans. 

            When you take notice within the analytics of football, oftentimes you may just go by the win-loss record, the QB’s statistics, or just individual player's numbers.  That will only tell you how good a positional player is not how good or bad the entirety of a team is.  However, if you choose to look at something called team win rates, you will start to get a much better feeling of what kind of team they are.  I mean after all; anyone who knows football knows that the game starts with the guys up front in the trenches.  Espn.com shows every NFL team's win rate ranking, Houston ranks 22nd in pass-block-win-rate and 31st in run-block-win-rate.  That kind of clarifies why the Texans haven’t been quite the offensive machine they were last year.

            Defensively Houston has tightened up a whole lot in comparison to last year’s unit.  Derek Stingley Jr. is just a part of the reason why.  That man has played his tail off this season while also putting up career-best numbers across the board and tying his most interceptions (5) for a season.  Both of Houston’s defensive ends, veteran and second-year edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have also had a major impact on the defense with their strong campaigns.  The Texans tied the Minnesota Vikings, becoming the only two teams in the league with multiple players in the top ten in sacks this season. (Hunter 5th with 12 sacks, Anderson 10th with 11 sacks)

 

TEXANS OFFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 21.9 (19TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 319.7 (22ND)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 112.3 (15TH)

PASS YARDS P/G – 207.4 (21ST)

SACKS ALLOWED- 54 (29TH)

 

TEXANS DEFENSE:

POINTS PER GAME- 21.9 (14TH)

TOTAL YARDS P/G- 315.0 (6TH)

RUSH YARDS P/G- 114.0 (11TH)

PASS YARDS P/G- 201.0 (6TH)

TOTAL SACKS – 49 (4TH)

 

 

            This AFC Wild Card matchup will either be a closely contested game or a blowout.  I for one believe it should be a good one.  A lot of sports media outlets along with NFL analysts believe that the Chargers should easily handle the Texans on the road.  I say look for the upset in this game, look for Stroud to do just enough to come out on top.  The Chargers are currently -2.5 favorites in Houston.  NFL Playoffs are always the best sports games of the year, so don’t miss out on the action or you’ll heavily regret it!  Chargers at the Texans on Saturday at 4:30 PM.    

NFL WIN RATE PLAYOFF PLAYERS/TEAMS

 

TOP NFL WIN RATE PLAYERS AMONG PLAYOFF TEAMS PER ESPN.COM


DEFENSIVE LINE WIN RATES


EDGE PASS RUSH WIN RATE

1) DANIELLE HUNTER – TEXANS = 26%

2) WILL ANDERSON JR.- TEXANS = 22%

3) DANTE FOWLER JR. – COMMANDERS = 20%

4) JONATHAN GREENARD – VIKINGS = 20%

5) T.J. WATT – STEELERS = 19%

6) JARED VERSE – RAMS = 18%

7) NIK BONITTO – BRONCOS = 17%

8) ODAFE OWEH – RAVENS = 16%

9) KYLE VAN NOY – RAVENS = 16%

 

DT PASS RUSH WIN RATE

1) CHRIS JONES- CHIEFS = 16%

2) ZACH ALLEN – BRONCOS = 15%

3) MILTON WILLIAMS- EAGLES = 13%

4) VITA VEA – BUCCANEERS = 12%

5) ED OLIVER – BILLS = 12%

6) DAQUAN JONES- BILLS = 11%

7) ALIM MCNEILL- LIONS = 10%

8) MORGAN FOX- CHARGERS = 10%

9) KEEANU BENTON- STEELERS = 10%

10) BRADEN FISKE-  RAMS = 9%

 

EDGE RUN STOP WIN RATE

1) RASHAN GARY- PACKERS = 37%

2) JONATHAN GREENARD- VIKINGS = 32%

3) JARED VERSE – RAMS = 32%

 

DT RUN STOP WIN RATE

   1) T.J. SLATON- PACKERS = 46%

   2) D.J. JONES- BRONCOS = 45%

   3) TIM SETTLE JR.- TEXANS = 40%

   4) MALCOLM ROACH- BRONCOS = 38%

   5) ED OLIVER – BILLS = 38%

 

OFFENSIVE LINE WIN RATES


OT PASS BLOCK WIN RATES

  1) TRISTAN WIRFS- BUCCANEERS = 96%

  2) BRIAN O’NEILL- VIKINGS = 95%

  3) LANE JOHNSON- EAGLES = 94%

  4) MIKE MCGLINCHEY- BRONCOS = 94%

  5) GARETT BOLLES- BRONCOS = 93%

  6) DION DAWKINS- BILLS = 93%

  7) ANDREW WYLIE- COMMANDERS = 93%

  8) LAREMY TUNSIL- TEXANS = 93%

  9) DAN MOORE JR.- STEELERS = 93%                                                                

       10) RONNIE STANLEY- RAVENS = 92%

       11) TAYLOR DECKER- LIONS = 92%

       12) JORDAN MAILATA- EAGLES = 92%

       13) SPENCER BROWN- BILLS = 92%

       14) JAWAAN TAYLOR- CHIEFS = 92%

       15) ZACH TOM- PACKERS = 92%

       16) PENEI SEWELL- LIONS = 91%

 

IOL PASS BLOCKING WIN RATE

1) JOE THUNEY- CHIEFS = 98%

2) LUKE WATTENBERG – BRONCOS = 98%

3) QUINN MEINERZ – BRONCOS = 97%

4) TYLER LINDERBAUM – RAVENS = 97%

5) BEN POWERS – BRONCOS = 96%

6) CREED HUMPHREY – CHIEFS = 96%

7) CAM JURGENS – EAGLES = 95%

8) CONNOR MCGOVERN- BILLS = 95%

9) ZACH FRAZIER – STEELERS = 95%

    10) PATRICK MEKARI- RAVENS = 95%

                11) TYLER BIADASZ- COMMANDERS = 95%


OT RUN BLOCK WIN RATE

1) ROGER ROSENGARTEN- RAVENS = 84%

2) LANE JOHNSON – EAGLES = 80%

3) ROB HAVENSTEIN – RAMS = 79%

4) BRANDON COLEMAN- COMMANDERS = 79%

5) CORNELIUS LUCAS – COMMANDERS = 79%

6) RASHAWN SLATER – CHARGERS = 79%


IOL RUN BLOCK WIN RATE

1) BEN POWERS- BRONCOS = 78%

2) SAM COSMI- COMMANDERS = 75%

3) TREY SMITH – CHIEFS = 75%

4) ISAAC SEUMALO – STEELERS = 75%

 

 

NFL WIN RATES BY TEAM & RANKED BY BEST AVERAGE PERCENTAGE

 

1) DEN = PRWR 46% (2ND), RSWR 32% (8TH), PBWR 74% (1ST), RBWR 75% (1ST)

2)MIN= PRWR 46%(4TH), RSWR 33% (4TH), PBWR 70% (2ND), RBWR 72% (15TH)

3) PHI= PRWR 43%(8TH), RSWR 33% (3RD), PBWR 67% (6TH), RBWR 72% (9TH)

4) BUF= PRWR 45%(6TH), RSWR 33% (5TH), PBWR 68% (4TH), RBWR 71% (17TH)

5) WAS= PRWR 43%(7TH), RSWR 30%(23RD), PBWR 66%(9TH), RBWR 74%(2ND)

6) PIT=PRWR 46%(3RD), RSWR 30%(17TH), PBWR 62%(13TH), RBWR 71%(24TH)

7) TB= PRWR 42% (11TH), RSWR 27% (31ST), PBWR 68% (5TH), RBWR 73% (6TH)

8)LAC=PRWR 37%(22ND), RSWR 32%(7TH), PBWR 65%(11TH), RBWR72%(13TH)

9) KC = PRWR 37% (19TH), RSWR 30%(21ST), PBWR 67%(8TH), RBWR 73% (7TH)

10)HOU=PRWR 49%(1ST), RSWR 34%(2ND),PBWR 58%(22ND),RBWR 68%(31ST)

11)BAL=PRWR 33%(29TH), RSWR 30%(22ND),PBWR 70%(3RD), RBWR 74%(3RD)

12)LA=PRWR 37%(18TH),RSWR 32%(11TH),PBWR 59%(20TH), RBWR72%(12TH)

13)GB=PRWR 35% (26TH), RSWR 33%(6TH), PBWR 67%(7TH), RBWR 71% (23RD)

14)DET=PRWR 35% (25TH),RSWR 30% (19TH),PBWR 64% (12TH),RBWR 72% (16TH)

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